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Thaksin takes a hit

Larry Jagan
THAILAND'S former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra has been found guilty of misusing his powers when he was in office and sentenced to two years in jail. The Supreme Court handed down its verdict amidst tight security around the courthouse. More than three hundred police were on guard to prevent the proceedings being disrupted by pro-Thaksin supporters. Earlier in the day, a bomb exploded outside the residence of a senior judge, but no one was hurt.
Mr. Thaksin, who is living in self-imposed exile in England, was not present at court. He and his wife jumped bail in August and fled to London, saying they could not get a fair trial in Thailand.
The former premier was ousted from power in a military coup in September, 2006. After fresh elections last December, under a new constitution, the newly formed People's Power Party (PPP), founded by his supporters, formed a new government.
For months now, it has been besieged by anti-government protestors demanding that current Prime Minster Somchai Wongsawat -- Thaksin's brother-* in-law--resign.
The court's decision, though, is unlikely to ease Thailand's political impasse. In fact, the country's political crisis is set to get even
worse, as Somchai's beleagured government faces further antigovernment protests, dissension within its own ranks and a worsening economy.
The protestors, led by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), have occupied Government House for more than two months, forcing the government to work out of the old airport on the outskirts of Bangkok.
A week ago the police cracked-down on the demonstrators when they tried to blockade parliament, leaving two dead and more than four hundred injured. The protest leaders have vowed to continue their demonstrations until the prime minister and his government resign.
Pressure is increasingly mounting on Mr. Somchai. The army chief. General Anupong Paochinda, added to the prime minister's problems, when he launched a "television coup" against the government last week, recommending that Mr. Somchai stand down and take responsibility for the deaths of two protestors as a result of the police crackdown.
For his part, though, the prime minister remains adamant that he will not resign or dissolve parliament. But time is running out for Mr. Somchai, and his options are continually narrowing. "The government is unlikely to survive much longer," a PPP insider told The Daily Star. "Somchai may
have to give up before the end of the week." he admitted.
This week is certain to add fuel to the crisis, as the confrontation between anti-government protestors and government supporters is set to escalate.
Alrea'dy, the PAD is beginning to sense victory, as the government continues to fumble around for solutions to the country's political impasse. More demonstrations are planned for later this week, after two peaceful forays into the centre of the capital city — the business districts last Friday and the commercial centre on Monday. But Wednesday may be the watershed, as former policemen plan a mass rally in support of the police action and the government.
"A violent class between the red and yellow on Wednesday would effectively put an end to Somchai’s government," Kavi Chingkittavorn, senior political analyst with the daily English-language newspaper, the Nation told The Daily Star. PAD protestors are dressed in yellow as a sign of respect to the country's king -who is legally above politics — and the government supporters wear red bandanas and handkerchiefs.
The Supreme Court's guilty verdict on corruption charges against the former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, may prove to be another nail in Mr. Somchai's political coffin. This is the first time Mr. Thaksin has actually
been convicted of corruption --ostensibly the reason the military (moved 4gainy him two years ago.
There are scores of other cases against him still pending in the courts.
Many analysts believe the decision will only increase the divisions in society, and lead to further confrontation. "No matter what the verdict, the court's decision will increase the political temperature in the community," according to the head of the Chulalongkorn University's department of government, Chaiyan Chaiyaporn.
Thaksin's supporters have already dismissed the decision as politically motivated and plan to turn to street protests to vent their feelings.
"Somchai may have no alternative now but to resign, probably within the next week," Kavi told The Daily Star. "But it may drag on until the end of the month -- as everyone is keen to avoid any nonconstitutional change," he added.
The army chief continues to rule out a coup -- but has added his voice to those calling for Mr. Somchai to stand-down in a television interview last Thursday. The military is solidly behind its commander, according to military sources.
But, while the forces mount up against Mr. Somchai, there is no obvious way out to the current political crisis. There are hints that the military and other establishment figures favour a National Unity Government led by the main opposition political party, the Democrats.
But for their part, the Democrats leaders have continually urged the prime minister to dissolve parliament and hold fresh elections, even though they know they are unlikely to topple
the PPP's popularity. "A fresh mandate through a general elec-uon-would help clear the air, even if we ended up with another PPP-led government," said the Democrat's deputy leader, Korn Chatikavanij.
"A snap election is no longer an option -- parliament would have to be dissolved 45 days before the polls and this is no longer possible," said Kavi. This means an election could not now be held before the end of December as campaigning could not take place until then, because of the royal funeral rites for the late Princess Galyani Vadhana (the king's sister) starting on November 14, followed by the king’s birthday celebrations and the Asean summit in midDecember.
By then, Thailand's political map may have been well and truly redrawn. The constitutional court is currently deliberating on the electoral commission's recommendation that the PPP, and several other coalition partners, be disbanded for electoral fraud in last December’s polls.
Indications are that the court will follow the electoral body's position, according to many Thai political pundits. The PPP government would then fall -- and at least ten senior party members banned from politics — leaving they way open for the Democrats to take power constitutionally.
While this seems to be the most likely scenario, Thai politics remains uncertain and anything could happen. What is certain is this week could be a major turning point in contemporary Thai political history — and may yet be Prime Minister Somchai's last week in office.
Larry Jagan is a former Current Affairs Editor, Asia, BBC World Service