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Future challenges for the US leadership
RECENT debates have confirmed the important role of such a form of engagement in US electoral politics. The long awaited first showdown between Mr McCain and Mr Obama, the two US Presidential candidates, took place in the last week of September. It was followed by a debate between the Vice-Presidential rivals. The Presidential contenders returned to the podium a few days later. Foreign policy, national security and domestic issues (proposals that might affect taxation, healthcare and socioeconomic opportunities) related to the troubled US social-economic scene took center-stage.
litis election to the US Presidency has turned out to be the most expen -sive campaign in the history of democracy. Monitored closely by the world print and electronic media, it has been marked by edgy, cautious maneuvering between the candidates and also the policy-makers of the rival Republican and Democratic political parties. Each debate has ended with both rivals claiming victory. Pollsters have also been busy with interesting results classified according to age, gender, political belief, race and commitment (the undecided factor) to different issues. They have also been careful to point out the possibilities of margins of
This time round, the US Presidential election has been.of special interest to peoples all over
the world. For the first time, we have significant additions to the matrix --the presence of an Afro-Caribbean and a lady. One is tempted to say that it has added colour to the campaign
This latest electoral contest In the United States, because of the very nature of Its electoral process, has been very complex. The long primary season which helped to select a candidate from the two largest parties has at times also been tainted by controversy and debatable assumptions and rumours.The
use of the internet has also played a prjvotal role in fund-raising and highlighting issues. The primaries ran for many months and left its imprint on the subsequent electoral dynamics. Its after-burner effects also contributed to the selection of the running mates for the principal candidates.
We will now hopefully have a trouble free US Presidential election in November.
It is being held in a critical period of US history. The image of the US around the world has sharply deteriorated since the start of the war in Iraq. In addition to questionable advances in the War against Terror (particularly in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan) and the Middle East peace initiative, other issues have emerged that have raised anxiety levels among other countries in the world. This includes the recent financial meltdown in Wall Street, the absence of sufficient political
will In tackling the menace of climate change and finding an accept -able compromise within the inter national trading regime There are also the festering problems of poverty reduction and the containing of communicable diseases. The world is watching the US Presidential campaign and waiting for the long shadow that will be cast by its next leader.
I have been to several European countries in the last three months attending workshops and seminars. As always, discussions in these
meetings, proved to be a good learning experience especially pertaining to what the world is expecting out of die riext US President.
It appears that Europe in general believes in the need for reconciliation of America with the world - a sort of healing of the emotional gap. It wants an America that will give priority to the restoration of the American Image. It was also clear that if the next US president were to be Barack Obama, the colour of his skin would do a great deal to change radically the image of America in the world. Obama is seen to be more in tune on diplomatic and strategic matters with the Europeans, though not necessarily on economic matters (where Democrats are believed to be protectionist). In addition, Obama, despite his relative inexperience in foreign policy, is perceived as a symbol of change and hope. It is also generally expected that Obama, unlike Bush, will try to
constructively engage with Russia over the future expansion of NATO (given the need to protect the Baltic republics).
'I he Chinese are used to hearing a lot of over-heated US Presidential campaign rhetoric about their country. George Bush did this, so did Bill Clinton. This time round, the focus has not been so much on China. They however know that policy is more important than personality.
_ China, despite provocations over Tibet, has restrained itself from
making any comments about the policy imperatives of the two US Presidential candidates. Chinese analysts participating in workshops abroad have however underlined a few aspects. They have acknowledged that Chinese-American relations improved under the Bush Administration and the government of Hu Jintao but have pointed out that President Bush remains a very controversial figure in the eyes of the Chinese people -- most especially for his doctrine of preemption. After 9/11 Bush proclaimed that the world had changed. Now the Chinese are wondering whether the next US President will change the world back ... or change it in different ways. In this context, they have noted that the next US President will have to engage more intensively in stabilising financial markets, dealing with a weakened US dollar, high oil prices and the threat of reces-
sionary world markets.
This is understandable given the fact that The Bank of China has invested heavily to the tune of $400 billion in America's bond market and In Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So, continued turbulence in the US financial and housing markets is creating fear in China. The Chinese arc also waiting to see how the next US President wifi handle the major challenge it is facing from China in Africa where China has not only become a commercial competitor to the US but also a political factor.
China, it may be recalled, because of its energy and mineral resources requirements, has changed the rules of the game in this region by offering aid and investment without political conditionality. This has presented itself as a great strategic problem for the USA.
In keeping with Russia's recent bellicosity, Russian analysts have also been very clear about what future US policy directions need to be. The US, one has pointed out, needs to stop acting like a teacher to the rest of the world, rid its foreign policy1 of the subjective ideology that has created double standards (whereby 'the US closes its eyes to all sorts of faults in countries it likes, and declares them fully democratic when they clearly aren't'). The Russians want a more participatory role from the USA as far as the Russian sphere of influence is concerned.
Come January 2009, the next US
President will inherit many intracta -bie problems - a falling dollar, possible rises in oil price, an improved but insecure Iraq, a fragile Afghanistan, a Pakistan saddled with instability, the unresolved Middle East peace process, an angry and dissatisfied nuclear North Korea, the possibility of direct talks with an emerging Iran and a pugnacious Russia. The United States will also have to face the hard reality of an economic overstretch that matches its military overstretch.
The best way forward might be to launch, as a first step, a regional political and diplomatic effort in South Asia -- focusing on problemsolving dialogues to ease regional tensions -- between India and Pakistan, and Afghanistan and Pakistan. This could create the space for Pakistan and Afghanistan to start a dialogue with insurgents who arc no longer prepared to support al-Qaeda. The initiative also needs to be accompanied by an economic package to stimulate economic opportunities in the vast rural hinterlands in this region. Similar meaningful initiatives could also be undertaken with regard to the Middle East peace process. The USA must understand that hunger and deprivation are synonymous with injustice. They also act as catalytic agents for radicalist networks. The USA has to realize that the best protection for Israel, its ally, is to have an independent workable Palestinian State.That will definitely take the sting away from the tenor ists'tail.
In all of these areas, dramatic shifts in policy - - either hawkish or dovish -are going to be difficult to implement Yet. countries all over the world will continue to look to Washington for leadership in the collective global effort towards the establishment of stability, building of infrastructure, creation of jobs and tackling of extremism and poverty.
Munammad Zam,r s a forme' Secretary and Ambassador and can be reached at mzamir@dhaka.net