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The political scenario

A.B.M.S. Zahur
**There may be a dearth of honest and competent candidates for participation in the national election. In politics, simply honesty or competence or wealth is not enough. People's acceptability of the candidate is most important. Strange and puzzling results may be seen in the election. We need not be panicky**
At last, the signs of return-Hy: to parliamentary democracy arc becoming clearer because of a fresh commitment for a credible national election by CA. encouraging statement of the army chief of a good elected government from January 2009, the US consent to send observers to Bangladesh national election, and positive signs of consent from BNP and its alliance partners to participate in the national election of December 2008.
In some respects. 2009 may be considered as unique because of the following factors:
• An army-supported civil government will transfer power to a democratically elected government
Whatever may be the degree of participation in the election by the major parties it is the only way to free themselves from the current political doldrums.
To remove doubts about authenticity of the voters' list, the fresh list has been prepared under the supervision of the army.
The voters will be allowed to cast their votes without fear or favour under emergency.
The possibility of influence of black money or muscle power has been reduced to a minimum level.
The political parties are in different stages of preparation for contesting in the election. Among the participating parties the AL is way ahead of other parties, despite the absence of its chief (expected date of return is early November 2008), because of its
better management, greater experience, and the ability to appreciate the need for an election and elected government. Generally speaking, wasting too much time in bargaining with the government and Ignoring the sentiment of grassroots level workers and leaders is not good politics.
In the present situation, the AL, or AL-led alliance, has greater chance for wining in the election because of the following factors;
• It has no internal division or dissension at the moment.
• Its chief tries to accept sugges-tions/recommendations of the presidium instead of showing temperament of a dictator.
• The image of the 4-party alliance has been considerably tarnished due to greed, indiscip-
line, and un parliamentary behaviour of some of its toplevel leaders (particularly those who were close to Hawa Bhaban).
• Rapid development of dynastybased politics in BNP has done great damage to its reputation as a moderate democratic party.
• A fundamentalist Islamic party, JI, which is reported to be related to some Islamic militant groups, only divided it.
• A strong possibility exists for incarceration of some front ranking leaders due to charges of graft, extortion, money laundering etc.
Due to its better organising capability, discipline and maturity, JI has been able to dominate its senior alliance partner. This will be revealed during distribution of parliamentary seats. With clear division in BNP, it is certain that JI will further consolidate its position at the cost of BNP. However, the chance of JI performing better in the next election is bleak due to gradual loss of appeal for establishing an Islamic state.
JP (Ershad) appears to be in a
better position because of loss of popularity of BNP If AL agrees to include this party in its proposed alliance (formation depends on return of Hasina from abroad) it may emerge as a major political party. A possibility even exists that some members of BNP may join the party due to turmoil in BNP
In the case of small parties, we do not see any prospect for their lot.
There may be a dearth of honest and competent candidates for participation in the national election. In politics, simply honesty or competence or wealth is not enough. People's acceptability of the candidate is most important. Strange and puzzling results may be seen in the election. We need not be panicky unnecessarily.
With regard to the upazila elections, it is almost clear that they may be completed during the tenure of CTG because the major parties are not enthusiastic about these elections, no matter what the directive of the Supreme Court may be. The EC will make all out efforts to complete upazila elections by 2008.
It is true that we all wish to have
a democratically elected government to tackle complex and sensitive issues like the price hike of essential commodities, alarming decrease (16%) in FDI and domes-
tic investment, slow down of economic activities, and hesitation of donor countries and agencies to support the current non-party government. Thus, the people are
A 8.M.S. Zahtx is a former jorrt secretary
anxiously waiting to see an elected government running the country from January2009.