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STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING

Will Pakistan be another Iraq?

Brig Gen ShahedulAnam kiiaN ndc, psc (Retd)
***To many it might seem an outlandish idea. Admittedly there will not be exactly an "a la Iraq" in Pakistan, but it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the US forces in Afghanistan may be tempted to physically draw a cordon sanitaire around FATA, which provides the operational depth to the Taliban and Al Qaeda, and over which Pakistan has little control, to hem in the terrorists and then deal with them piecemeal.***
Perhaps no other country is as painfully aware as Pakistan about its geopolitical attributes, which have proved to be a banc as much a boon. Its locational factor has become a matter of great discomfiture, more so now, with the US deciding to sally into Pakistan territory regardless of all international norms and diplomatic niceties -- for the purpose of chasing the al-Qaeda / Taliban as a part of its counterterror operations in Afghanistan.
Pakistan is finding out the hard way that its policy of supporting the US in its global war against terror and working as the frontline state in the US war in Afghanistan is going against its national interest, an outcome that is quite contrary to what President Musharraf had hoped his strategy would gain -- his own perpetuation, along with Pakistan's territorial integrity. Both hopes have been frustrated, and Pakistan, regrettably, will have to sleep on the bed, which Musharraf had made under US pressure.
Pakistan had very skillfully exploited its locational advantage, sitting as it does at the confluence of the South Asian subcontinent, the Persian Gulf and Central Asia, during the period of the Cold War. It was a frontline state during the US war against
the Soviets in Afghanistan, which allowed it transform a "peanut" size US loan of $270 million to more than two billion.
Its demographic make up, combined with its geographical location, accorded it the added importance which was not lost upon the US, in particular, and the West in general. And in that lay the root of the travails that Pakistan now faces.
What had once resurrected, Pakistan from a peripheral state in the US's international and geopolitical equation in the eighties has come to threaten its very survival as a sovereign state. A dynamic that had in the past accorded tremendous geopolitical benefits has devalued to a point where the integrity of the country is under serious threat and where it might have to meet the fate that the Iraqis have suffered and are still suffering as a result of the US interventionist policy. It is a nightmare scenario that many in Pakistan are apprehensive about but may not be willing to either admit, or, even less, express.
This frightening prospect faces many of those countries that have joined the US bandwagon in its fight against global terror, either willingly or because of economic and political constraints, because in the name of global war on terror and for the
expressed purpose of guaranteeing security to mainland US, It has demonstrated little regard for the sanctity of international borders -- as Pakistan is experiencing much to its dislike.
It is worth noting that US interest in Pakistan is not only because of its role in the war against terror and the ongoing Afghan war. With the change of the geopolitical dynamics brought about by the breakup of the Soviet Empire the US was faced with two major adversaries, one a country whose economic might, although insignificant compared to its own, has powered its plans to enlarge and modernise its armed forces for safeguarding its economic interest.
China is seen as a potential threat to US hegemonism, and which the US feels must be counterbalanced. The other adversary, the rise of "political Islam," manifested in the proliferation of various Muslim terrorist groups given the lead by the US nemesis, al-Qaeda. In both the equations, Pakistan features strongly in the US reckoning as a very important factor.
Unfortunately, the US war in Afghanistan is going poorly, and the US feels that it is Pakistan that should take the blame for its reversal in Afghanistan, whereas in reality it is the failed US global
anti-terror strategy that has impacted on the Afghan war. And as long as the Taliban remains in Afghanistan and the al-Qaeda able to wield its influence internationally, the US feels it will not be safe.
Thus, Pakistan faces a very serious challenge from the strongest military power on this globe. And willy-nilly it might capitulate in the face of US pressure to meet its strategic needs
But the apprehension is not something that has evolved of late only in the perception of many Pakistanis. That such an eventuality, of physical US involvement in Pakistan, had been considered a possibility for a long time is clear from the reference made to it in an article appearing in The Hindu of April 23, 2003, which suggest that the average Pakistani, devastated by the demonstration of what the mighty West can do under the guise of taming "rogue” or "terrorist" regimes, is worried about a la Iraq. "It cannot be denied that there is in Pakistan a genuine worry that some day the country will face the same fate as Iraq and face the new American doctrine of 'pre-emptive strikes.'" As Qazi Hussain Ahmed, leader of Pakistan's biggest Islamic party Jamat-e-Islmai, said in a recent interview to Reuters: "Thinking that our turn will not come is like
closing your eyes to the truth."
Perhaps Pakistan's time is come. From what one has witnessed, the brazen violation of a sovereign state's territory, the principle of preemptive strike might be extended along with the extension of the area of operation. And with it, when one takes into account comments of US president during his meeting with his Pakistani counterpart recently that "the US wants to help Pakistan to protect itself," coupled with the view of the US planners that Pakistan is not capable of fighting terrorism by itself, and Obama's statement that Pakistan is using the US military aid to prepare for war against Pakistan rather than on terror, the possibility of doing an Iraq in Pakistan becomes very real.
To many it might seem an outlandish idea. Admittedly there will not be exacdy an "a la Iraq" in Pakistan, but it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the US forces in Afghanistan may be tempted to physically draw a cordon sanitaire around FATA, which provides the operational depth to the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and over which
Pakistan has little control, to hem in the terrorists and then deal with them piecemeal. How long that lasts would depend on how long it takes to neutralise the terrorists, and how much Pakistan chips in as its pan in the so-called war against terror.
Pakistan finds itself between the devil and the deep sea - the Marriott bombing is a warning to the fledgling government to distance itself from America and the blame leveled by the US that it is not doing enough as a frontline state --puts it in a quandary.
Pakistan's job has been made even more difficult with public resentment rising against the US violation of its territory, coupled with the perception of the common Pakistani that the global war against terror is actually war agajnst Islam. It calls for a great deal of statesman-like acumen and political wisdom to address the issues. It is to be seen how much of the two attributes the new Pakistan leadership can display in reconciling the dichotomy.
The author is Edkx. Defense & Strategic affairs. The Daily Star.