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News Analysis

S Africa ponders life after Mbeki

BBC Online
South Africa's political landscape is changing faster than anyone anticipated.
The speed of events over the past few days has inevitably created an atmosphere of uncertainty, and some apprehension.
The sudden resignation of President Thabo Mbeki has drawn a welter of calls for clear and strong leadership, lest the country finds itself on the path to becoming "a banana republic", to quote the words of Archbishop Desmond Tutu.
However, change has been on the cards since the historic African National Congress (ANQ national conference in Polokwane last December.
Thabo Mbeki, seeking a third term as party’ leader, was defeated by his long-time rival, Jacob Zuma -the man whom Mr Mbeki had sacked as South Africa’s Deputy President in 2005.
Polokwane was a watershed, with 4,000 ANC delegates from branches all over the countries exercising their democratic right to force a change of leadership in the party.
After 10 years at the helm of the ruling party. Thabo Mbeki found himself rejected in favour of the populist, Jacob Zuma.
Within days of the Polokwane conference, the writing was on the wall for Thabo Mbeki and his allies.
At the ANC's anniversary cele-
brations in January, the then leader of the party’s Youth League, Fikile Mbalula, signalled that the Zuma camp in the ANC was firmly in the ascendancy.
"We are the future. No-one can stop us", he declared.
There has been a decidedly mixed reaction in South Africa to the forced resignation of Thabo Mbeki.
"He was a bad president. He divided our country", said last week’s Sunday Times. President Mbeki s ousting may prove to be the undoing of the ANC's electoral dominance
But many commentators and observers have expressed disquiet at the timing of this political change.
They believe it could leave South Africa vulnerable at a time of turbulence in the world economy.
An analysis by Standard Chartered Bank says "with the economic slowdown and electricitycrisis. South Africa already faces a trying time".
"Emigration levels from the country are the highest they have been since the early 1990's. Both business and consumer confidence have slumped," it continues.
"While investors may welcome greater certainty in terms of the future political outlook, a more volatile political transition is likely to cost the country dearly," the bank says.
It was Thabo Mbeki's stewardship of the South African economy
that has arguably been his greatest achievement.
During his presidency, the country has enjoyed its longest period of steady economic growth. The ANC leader, Jacob Zuma, has appealed to South Africans not to panic
There are fears that if Jacob Zuma becomes President after next year's elections, he may be beholden to some of his allies on the political left, such as the Cosatu trade union federation and the South African Communist Party.
They have always been opposed to Mbeki's economic policies, arguing that the poor have been marginalised, and that unemployment remains high.
However, in the short term, there are hopes that the likely acting president, Kgalema Motlanthe, may be the safe pair of hands that the country needs at present.
It would be unthinkable for Thabo Mbeki, who has devoted his life to the ANC since he was a teenager, to leave the party. But according to Standard Chartered Bank's analysts, "the threat of a breakaway party is nowsignificant".
It warns that the implications could be grave.
The ANC leader, Jacob Zuma, may insist that the current changes are "nothing extraordinary", but his appeal to South Africans "not to panic", suggests that the Rainbow Nation is facing one of its biggest challenges of the post-apartheid era.