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Fukuda’s resignation - Is political turmoil inevitable?

M. Serajui. Islam
IS Japan returning to its old political habit of electing more than one Prime Minister a year after Koizumi had tried to change that by remaining in power firmly for five years? Is political instability that was endemic in the pre-Koizumi era, coming back to Japan? Yasuo Fukuda's resignation as Japan's Prime Minister this week, rather abruptly, means that since Koizumi's departure less than 2 years ago, Japan is going to have a third Prime Minister soon.
Although Fukuda's resignation has come abruptly, he was never securely straddled in office. In fact. Fukuda's political career seemed all but over after he dropped out of race when the Liberal Democratic Party chose Shinzo Abe as its President following the departure of Koizumi in September 2006. It was revived when Abe was forced to resign amidst mounting political tensions and failing health a year later in September 2007 that revived Fukuda's dying political career. Fukuda is a low profile politician, at his best working in someone else's shadow. When Koizumi was the Prime Minister, Fukuda as the Chief Cabinet Secretary, exercised a great deal of power, particularly in the key area of foreign affairs where he was the one in control, with full backing of Koizumi. Fukuda also had then extremely close links with the bureaucracy and was one of the pillars upon which Koizumi had built his almost unquestioned dominance and influence over politics as Prime Minister.
As a Prime Minister, Fukuda has been disappointing. He him self admitted in public that he lacked the charisma to lead Japan at a time when the country needs strong and charismatic leadership to deal with the deepening economic recession in the country. After trying a few tricks to hold on to power amidst growing unpopularity of his government, like a cabinet reshuffle last month and an economic stimulus package worth US$ 107 billion only last week, Fukuda finally gave up when the popularity of his government in the opinion polls fell to 29%. He felt that he could not face another parliamentary session that was due to begin on September 12 because of the role being played by the opposition Democratic Party of Japan that holds a majority in the Upper House of the Japanese Parliament, the Diet.
In fact, Fukuda's tenure was made extremely difficult by the attitude of the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan, which controls the Upper House of the Diet, by their policy of opposing all legislation put on the table by the LDP. Fukuda also became very unpopular with his Medical Bill for the elderly. He thought it would be better for the LDP to elect a new President who would then automatically become the Prime Minister because of LDP’s 2/3rd majority in the Lower House (with its coalition partner the New Komeito Party) to lead the nation. His continuation as the Prime Minister would only delay firm legislative action to deal with Japan's current economic miser ies and also LDP's chances in the general election next September. His sudden resignation was also influenced by problems with political funds, pension records, scandals in the Defense Ministry and personal health problems.
The opposition DPJ has asked for snap election notwithstanding the LDP's 2/3rd majority in the Lower House where a Government is made to rise and fall under the Japanese system of parliamentary government. The DJP is seeking snap election despite LDP's strength in the Lower House based on the failure of Abe and now Fukuda to provide effective leadership, aith the argument that these failures and Fukuda's Government's extremely low popularity reflect people's disfavor with the LDP and the need for a change in governance through a general election. The DJP also feels that the party's resounding victory in the Upper House elections in September last year, when it won 113 seats against 84 by the LDP, also suggests that most Japanese want LDP's leadership to be tested again through another general election.
However, the DJP's call for early election is not expected to find favour with the LDP In September 2005, Koizumi dissolved the Diet and called for early election after his pet postal privatization bill was
defeated in the Upper House where some LDP members voted against their own party. In that election, Koizumi named nearly 100 new faces of whom 83 won (lovingly called Koizumi'z kids), many defeating old LDP stalwarts who were expelled from the LDP by Koizumi for opposing his postal privatization bill. These new Parliamentarians would like the Diet to complete its full term, afraid that in a snap election they may not succeed in returning to the Diet. Also, with 293 seats of its own and 20 seats won by its ally the New Komeito against the DJP's 113 seats in tire current Lower House, the LDP is legitimately under no obligation to accede to the DJP's demand and can continue till the next election due in September, 2009.
Thus Japan is set to elect its third Prime Minister in two years. A front-runner has already emerged in Taro Aso, the current Secretary General of the LDP and former Foreign Minister. Like Fukuda, he comes from a family that gave Japan a Prime Minister. He is the grandson from his mother's side of Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida while Fukuda is the son of Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda. Unlike Fukuda, who favoured diplomatic posture towards China, Aso is hawkish. In Japan's politics, the litmus test on who is hawkish and who is not is easy to discern based upon a politician's inclination to visit the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo that honours Japan's war heroes and also includes 14 Class A war criminals, constituting a major bone
of contention between Japan and C hina Aso, like Koizumi, favours visiting the Yasukuni Shrine and therefore is considered hawkish while Fukuda Is a moderate because as Prime Minister, he did not visit this Shrine and sought deeper understanding with China in recognition of China's emergence as a powerhouse. While Aso has made his intentions clear to contest for the post of LDP president, another LDP leader who could have been a formidable candidate to oppose him, current Chief Cabinet Secretary and former Foreign Minister Machimura, has indicated that he is not interested to contest. That has made the field an easy one for Aso although many LDP members may not be comfortable with him. In fact, feelers have already gone out to Koizumi who could return now and contest for the LDP President's post with the younger members of the LDP but he has declined. One another name that is being mentioned is that of former Defense Minister Yuriko
• Koike, a former TV celebrity and conversant in Arabic, having studied in Cairo. But it is very unlikely that in Japan's male dominated politics, a woman could become the country's Prime Minister. It is interesting to note that faction bosses who had settled the issue of a LDP President in the pre-Koizumi era are playing little part in LDP's politics now due to Koizumi's efforts to rid the LDP of factions within it.
Given the current scenario, Aso who is 67, seems most likely to become Japan's next Prime Minister after the LDP elects him President on September 22nd. As Foreign Minister, he had visited Bangladesh in 2006 and has good feelings for Bangladesh although on that trip he made Japanese aid conditional upon good governance. His charm and charisma may help him and LDP win back voters' approval for on that count, he and Fukuda are in
sharp contrast. Koizumi's five-year long leadership during which he captivated the imagina-tion and interest of most Japanese with his personal qualities, often against apparently insurmountable odds both in his party and outside, has now made charm and charisma indispensable for a Japanese Prime Minister. How much of it Aso has may ultimately decide whether or not Japan will have one more
Prime Minister between now and September next year. Given Japan's economic recession that does not seem likely to end soon and the growing power of the DJP, it seems more likely that should Aso fail to last, the LDP would have no other option than to call for an early election. It already seems that the Koizumi era was ages ago!
The author is former Ambassador, and Director, Centre for ForeignAfan Studies.