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Japanese political crisis clouds economic outlook

AFP, Tokyo
.Asia’s largest economy was left rudderless again Tuesday after Japan's prime minister quit suddenly, sparking concerns that free-market reforms will be put on a backburner as a recession looms.
There was a weary sense of deja vu on financial markets, as the return of the revolving door politics of the recession-ridden 1990s left the country searching for its third prime minister in less than two years.
Whoever replaces Fukuda will inherit the same problems — a deadlocked parliament, a worsening economy, an ageing population and huge public debts.
The Nikkei stock index ended down 1.75 percent while the yen was higher.
"The political uncertainty may add volatility to the market in the short term," warned Kenichi Kawasaki, chief economist for Lehman Brothers in Tokyo.
"However, we do not expect economic policies to change significantly as a result of a change in the prime minister," he said, predicting the ruling party could be forced to hold an autumn general election.
Fukuda's surprise announcement late Monday
came after the 72-year-old political moderate failed to reverse a slump in his popularity despite reshuffling his cabinet and unveiling a major economic stimulus package.
Many investors had already been disillusioned about the prospects for further economic reform given the legislative deadlock and signs that the ruling party is more concerned about the next election, due by September 2009.
"There is already political deadlock and elections are expected in the coming year," said Kazuhiro Takahashi, head of equities at Daiwa Securities SMBC.
Former foreign minister Taro Aso, seen by many as the frontrunner to replace Fukuda, would be likely to push for increased government spending to support the economy if he lakes office, analysts said.
Aso would "appeal for an increase in budget-spending to support economic activity," predicted John Richards, head of Asia-Pacific Strategy at RBS Securities.
Until recently, Japan's economy had been recovering from a slump stretching back more than a decade. But a contraction in the second quarter left the country teetering on the brink of its first recession in six years.