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America's dwindling firepower
With the United States bogged down in two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and facing terrorist threats around the world and a hostile Iran, it can no longer fight multiple wars. Despite its massive nuclear arsenals, the United States lacks manpower and political will to fight such many-sided wars. The Soviet Union was a formidable superpower with far larger number of nuclear warheads than the United States and yet it could not continue the war in Afghanistan and eventually collapsed when it could not sustain the burden of war.
The United States is now facing an economic downturn in the aftermath of the mortgage crisis and a budget deficit of epic proportions. It is also facing a massive trade deficit vis a vis China. By the end of July 2007, China exported a staggering $321 billion worth of goods to the United States while America exported a paltry $65 billion worth of goods to China, leaving a massive $256 billion trade surplus in China's favour. In fact, China is now bankrolling the U.S. budget deficits. As former Vice President Al Gore said during the Democratic Convention at Denver: "We need to borrow from China in order to buy oil from Saudi Arabia." America will have to borrow even more heavily from China if it wants to fight another war with Russia.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin understands America's predicaments. While the United States is facing a crushing foreign debt, Russia is enjoying massive foreign exchange earnings due to soar-ing oil and gas prices. Compared to a bankrupt America, Russia's treasury is now overflowing and Russia is now in a far better position to indulge in foreign military adventures. While Georgian President Sakashvilli invaded the breakaway Ossetia, miguidedly hoping that the United States will protect him, Russian invasion of Georgia must have shattered all his illusions. He must now realise that the United States is facing an economic meltdown at home and a looming military debacle in Iraq and is no longer in a position to protect its allies in distant corners of the world.
Sensing America's weakness, Russia is now playing a game. It has signed an agreement to pull out its troops from Georgia and yet Russian troops continue to occupy Georgian territories. Moreover, Russia has recognised the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia as independent states, dashing Georgian hopes to bring the two breakaway regions to Georgian control. The United States cannot do anything to change the situation. A war with Russia on Georgia is unthinkable as it will only add to America's hardships and no Americans, including neo-conservatives, are willing to make any sacri-fice for Georgia. Most Americans are now tired of wars which are costing too much American dollars and too many American lives. It is more likely that the United States is moving toward a creeping isolationism as it did during the period between two World Wars.
When the United States withdrew from the European affairs after the First World War, it left behind a military and strategic vacuum which the declining Britain and France could not fill. As a result, rogue states like Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy rose to fill the vacuum. The rest belongs to history. Similarly, the declining economic and military powers of the United States may be prompting Russia to flex its new-found economic and military clouts. West European nations like Germany and
France are becoming increasingly dependent on Russia for their energy supplies and cannot stand up against a resurgent Russia. East European nations like Ukraine and Poland may be fooling themselves by hoping that America will come to their assistance if threatened by Russia. But they must realise that the United States no longer has the political, economic and military clout or even the political will to help them in any meaningful way.
Even if more hawkish Senator John McCain is elected as president of the United States, he will find that America is ill-prepared to meet its multiple international obligations. He will find that most Americans are more afraid of losing their homes to banks than losing Georgia to Russians. The same applies to Senator Barack Obama who is calling for a change in the direction in which America is going. Most obvious change will be to reconcile America's diminishing role in the global affairs with China and Russia's growing role. Our only hope is that both China and Russia will not follow in the footsteps of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. Mahmood Elahi Ottaiva, Canada