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US Presidential election: The international dimension

Khaled Khalifa
INTERNATIONALLY the US presidential elections between the two candidates, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Ohama. reflect all spheres of the US administration. The current American president is a lame duck who cannot conduct any substantial domestic' or international policy.
President George Bush's gloomy visit to Europe was proof of the limits of his doctrine. During his visit, Bush asked the Europeans to take on a greater participation in the war in Afghanistan. Bush's main assumption is that Afghanistan is the center of Taliban activity, which attracts Al Qaeda and other international terrorist organizations. Bush intended to recruit both Europeans and non-Europeans.
It's quite clear that this American president has dragged these countries into an endless war without any ability to reach a satisfactory conclusion. Concerning the Taliban it will require a long battle but it's an important step in the Afghani nation building process. What we have seen to date is a long battle with a large number of casualties. It has been the grand project of one man named George Bush. However, at the end of the day he will have helped consolidate the Afghani national myth. At the same time the process will have been long and painful to the peo-
ple of Afghanistan, the Muslim world and the Coalition forces who are paying the price for his ambitions. Now at the end of his rule, George Bush is urging European countries to send even more troops to fight his war against terror.
The situation in Iraq is the samp. Bush continues to stay in Iraq'-as an befcupying force). He 1 couldn't succeed in convincing other countries to stay and most of his allies have already left Iraq. The future of Iraq, however, will be decided by the next president, Obama or McCain. McCain will continue the status quo because he has the same beliefs. Obama as president might behave differently. He might start thinking of evacuating the American forces. Bush will try to prevent him from doing so by escalating the crisis with Iran and by signing a new agreement with El Maliki. A longterm security arrangement with El Maliki would prevent any quick withdrawal from Iraq by either Obama or McCain.
It's quite difficult to imagine that even if Obama is elected he could give an immediate order to withdraw. Bush is aware of that possibility and during the last stages of his presidency is trying to lay the groundwork in the international arena for an environment that would give legitimacy to the American occupation of Iraq for a long period of time. If McCain is Bush's successor he will adopt the
same policy of a long term American presence in Iraq.
Concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the regional polarization will continue for a long time. Israel is living under the short-term command of Olmert. This is a leadership that has no legitimacy to make changes, to lead processes or embark on political m an e u v e r im gi' .wii th the Palestinians, the Syrians or the Lebanese.
Olmert is involved in many scandals, which prevents him from acting. According to conventional wisdom, Olmert will try to "gain" time, or more correctly "waste" time in order to clear his name. Any other leader who becomes his successor will face the same problems and challenges without any possibility or ability tp change things.
The Palestinian leadership headed by Abu Mazen is a prisoner in the American-Israeli triangle. His perception is that the US puts pressure on other countries to continue supporting Israel and not imposing a just, peaceful solution between Israel and the Palestinians.
The US wants to continue with the current situation and current relationship with Israel. It also wants to continue with its current containment policy against Iran, which is part of its policy supporting Israel. The American administration has no interest, no ability and no will to put pressure on
Israel. America's main interest, actually, is to continue with the conflict in order to have influence in other parts of the Arab world.
Condoleeza Rice's most recent visit, her sixteenth, to Israel without any comprehensive results and Bush's last two major visits to the
country were proof that they have no real intentions to come up with a solution on Israel. Nevertheless, on his farewell visit to Europe, Bush asked the Europeans to support the Bush Doctrine. We can say that Bush, in the name of his War on
Terror will continue till the end of
his term with his containment policy against the entire region, which will continue to boil over for years to come!
The author, who 3 a journal’ll aro member of The A-'ac Council for rorfcon Reiatons. fas contro-uteo ths artcie to The Daily Star.