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US-Poland missile defence agreement: Implications

Barrister Harun ur Rashid
ALTHOUGH after their first meeting in 2001, President Bush said the famous words that he had looked into the eyes of Putin and got “a sense of his soul.” He subsequently pursued policies that Putin vigorously opposed. One of them is stationing elements of a missile defence system in Eastern Europe.
The 15 August signing of the preliminary agreement between the US and Poland to host part of Washington's controversial missile defence system on Polish soil, at the backdrop of the Russian-Georgian conflict, is seen by many observers to be at an inappropriate time. The US argues that the shield will prevent missile attacks by “rogue states”, meaning Iran. Iran dismissed the claim and so did Russia.
The agreement will anger Russia, which is opposed to such missile defence system in Poland because Russia's argument is that the missile defence system in Poland threatens its own defences. Furthermore it claims the system upsets the regional security balance and could be used against itself. Moscow is now likely to target its own missiles at the Polish base.
This agreement has irritated Moscow and already Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has cancelled his upcoming trip to Poland. Moscow does not want such an installation in a former Soviet bloc country.
At a news conference on 15th August, a senior Russian defence official Colonel General Anatoli Nogovitsyn suggested that Poland was making itself a target by agreeing to serve as host for the anti-missile system. Such an action "cannot go unpunished”.
A curious timing of the agreement
The timing of the US-Polish agreement appears to be curious. Although it strengthens the commitment of the US in Poland, it angers Russia to a point where little room is left for the US-Russia relations to be back on track. The US needs Russia as Russia needs the US. The US needs Russia on Iran's nuclear ambition but if such worsening of relations continue between them, international peace and stability will be at a great risk.
The Secretary of State of the US Dr. Rice has been an expert on Soviet Union as she earned her Ph-D on the subject. She is fully aware that humiliation, marginalisation and ignoring Russia's vital interests will not pay political dividends for the US.
It is not understood why the Bush administration has been taking one step after another that angers Russia at the fag end of the administration. Furthermore, when the US is dealing-with Russia on Georgia, the timing does not seem to be appro -
As for Poland, relations between Poland and Russia improved following the election of the government led by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk late in 2007. Mr. Tusk even paid a visit to Moscow before Washington. It was believed that Poland under the TUsk government would not agree to install a missile defence system on its soil to annoy Russia.
Why change of policy in Poland?
It is noted that Russian relations with Poland has a long history, dating to the late Middle Ages, when the Kingdom of Poland and Grand Duchy of Muscovy struggled over control of their borderlands.
Over centuries, there have been several Polish-Russian wars, with Russians controlling much of Poland in the 19th century as well as in the 20th
century.
However, Polish-Russian relations have entered a new phase after the fall of communism in both countries around 1989-1993. Since then Polish-Russian relations have seen both improvement and deterioration, depending on various factors.
Russia and European Union need each other too. Europe gets one quarter of its requirement of oil and gas from Russia and Germany alone depends on Russia for 30% of its energy supplies. Russia is the EU's third biggest trading partner.
Likewise Russia depends on European market and technology. Half of all Russian exports go to the EU. Russia needs enormous investments to modify its pipelines and other infrastructure. Technology is abundantly available in Europe for Russia.
The European Commission estimates Russia will need to invest in excess of 700 billion euros ($905 billion) into its energy sector between now and 2020. Furthermore, Russia's long-delayed effort to join the World Trade Organization could be realized through cooperation with theEU.
Last June, EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana reportedly said: "The EU-Russia Summit will see the launch of negotiations for the new EU-Russia Agreement. In addition to EU-Russia relations, a number of international issues of common interest will also be discussed, in particular Iran and the Middle East, as well the situation in Georgia and Moldova, and ongoing violence in Afghanistan".
Observers say Poland is a part of NATO and of the European Union. They do not understand why Poland is reshaping its foreign policy in terms of war and not peace and reconciliation. NATO will defend Poland in case of an attack and there appears to be no need to have a separate commitment of the US to protect Poland.
It appears that even now Poland perceives Russia as a bigger threat to its security than Iran. Poland believes that only the US can guarantee security for Poland. It is reported that under the agreement the US has declared it will come to Poland's assistance in the event of an attack from a third party. It has also promised to help modernise the Polish armed forces.
Crucially for Poland, the US has agreed to station a battery of Patriot missiles (96 in number) and US servicemen on Polish soil to beef up the country's short and medium-range air defences. Given the objectives of the European Union towards Russia, the US-Polish agreement is likely to impede smooth relations with Russia.
Russia's vital interests cannot be ignored. It wants proper role in international affairs commensurating its power, size and influence. Observers believe that the European Union may not dance in tango with the US in alienating Russia, an European power.
Conclusion
A cold war is not likely to arise between the West and Russia because existing conditions are totally different from those in the earlier days. One is the degree of interdependence achieved, not just in ever increasing trade and investment but in the emergence of global communication, the interlocking of financial markets and the global organisation of production. Multilateralism is tire order of the day.
Climate change, soaring oil price, inflationary tendences in all countries, global economic slowdown, terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation are to be addressed by all states including the US and Russia. Collective ways of doing business is the most prudent way in the inter-connected world.
The author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.