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News Analysis

'New world order' seen as powers square off on Georgia

AFP, Moscow
When Georgia attacked South Ossetia late the night of August 7, it was clear that something out of the ordinary was afoot
But few could have guessed the events which transpired with breathtaking speed over the next week would ring alarm bells around the world and, according to analysts, instantly alter the international order for many years to come.
Fundamental principles for developing relations with Russia and other countries once part of the Soviet Union, taken for granted in the West at least since the 1991 Soviet collapse, have abruptly been called into question.
At the same time, Russia has signalled that it considers the rules of the international game as it has been played for the past generation are a thing of the past, a thought that will give its ex-Soviet neighbours something to ponder.
"The recent conflict will have dramatic repercussions for Russia and the international community as a whole for quite some time to come," said Yevgeny Volk, a politi-
cal analyst with the US-based Heritage Foundation think tank.
"It is the biggest geopolitical turning point since the 1991 Soviet collapse It is a new stage in international relations, the end of any illusion about the peaceful nature of development in East West relations," he said.
Numerous other experts agreed with this, saying that regardless of how the crisis is viewed looking back and how it plays out in the future a seminal event has now occurred that has already deeply impacted the global landscape.
"The status quo ante has gone forever." James Nixey, manager of the Russia and Eurasia programme at the London-based research centre Chatham House, wrote in an essay as the crisis unfolded
"Whatever happens now in the Caucasus, relations between Russia and the West (and Russia's West-leaning neighbours) must surely, from this moment on, be reevaluated by all," Nixey said
In repelling Georgia's bid to take control of the separatist province by force and then launching its own massive offensive into Georgia
proper, Russia had a number of aims, several of which it has attained, expdrts said.
These included the general aim of bolstering its weight in world affairs, the strategic aim of fortifying its presence in the Caucasus and the economic aim of stepping back into a vital oil and gas transport corridor.
"Russia's reaction was a predetermined policy in search of an appropriate application," Martha Brill Olcott, a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said at a seminar last week in Washington.
"The situation in South Ossetia proved a perfect storm for Moscow, " she said, according to a transcript of her remarks published by the Brookings Institution, another US policy research organisation.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is strongly supported by the United States and Washington has for years said it backs his objective of reasserting Georgian control over South Ossetia and another breakaway province, Abkhazia.
Sporadic violence between
rebel fighters and Georgian troops in both areas had been a feature of life In Georgia since the two regions, both backed by Russia, de i facto split from the country in the I early 1990s.
But what surprised many about the fighting that erupted there last week was how quickly it rocketed into a major confrontation between Russia on one side and the United States and much of western Europe on the other.
The long-term implications of i that confrontation are only now | beginning to dawn oni policymakers around the world. I analysts said.
“Russia had said for many years that it was ready to use force out side its borders" in defence of Russian citizens and interests, explained Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the foreign policy review Russia in Global Affairs.
"But the fact of actually doing it changes the strategic situation." he said, adding: "At the critical moment, it appeared the United States could not actually do any thing" to help Georgia counter the Russian onslaught.