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News Analysis

What will happen to Indo-Pak peace talks after Musharraf?

AP, New Delhi
It's a change of heart that reflects how low India-Pakistan relations have sunk in recent months and the fears that they haven't yet hit bottom with Pakistan being blamed for blowing up India's embassy in Afghanistan and repeated shootings along the disputed frontier in Kashmir.
The violence is threatening to turn back the clock on the rivals' four-year peace process, and a growing number of Indians are saying it has forced them to face a hard truth about Pakistan. They'd rather deal with a powerful dictatorship than a weak democracy
Musharraf, the former general who seized power in a 1999 coup, often found himself at odds with India.
But since a February election left Musharraf largely sidelined, "we've got more violence, and now we don't know who to talk to about it," said an Indian Foreign Ministry official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he didn't want to publicly criticise Pakistani officials
In India's view, four years of peace talks with Pakistan were fruitful because Musharraf kept a tight leash on hawkish elements in its army and the Inter-Services Intelligence agency, which New Delhi accuses of orchestrating last month's embassy bombing, an attack that killed 58 people. Pakistan denies the allegations
Now Musharraf is getting ready to battle political foes who are calling for his impeachment, and that "leaves a big vacuum." said India's national security adviser, M K. Narayanan.
"We are deeply concerned because it leaves the radical extrem ist outfits free to do what they like, not
merely on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border but clearly, our side of the border too," he toldThe Straits Times of Singapore in an interview published Tuesday.
That's probably overstating the situation inside Pakistan, where the army and ISI do report to civilian authorities. But there's nonetheless deep distrust throughout Pakistan forhidia.
Pakistan accuses India of trying to fomenting a separatist rebellion in the restive Baluchistan province. Islamabad is also deeply suspicious of New Delhi's budding friendsltip with Afghanistan, which Pakistan
has long seen as a potential rear base in any potential war with India.
"It's not like there's suddenly going to be a war between the two countries." said Nasim Zchra. a Pakistani national security analyst and Fellow of Harvard University's Asia Center.
But “in the absence of greater trust, you will see a kind of pincer movement against Pakistan by Afghanistan and India, and Pakistan's establishment and state turning toward whatever tools it has at its disposal to defend itself,'' she said.
India's policymakers seem all too aware of this. Yet with no stomach for renewed conflict, they are left with few options apart from more talks and yearning for the days when Musharraf was firmly in charge.
That's not to say Musharraf is a beloved figure in India. He fought in two wars against the country and, months before his coup, orchestrated an ill-fated Pakistani attempt to seize ground from India in
Kashmir, the Himalayan region at the center of the India-Pakistan rivalry.
India, on Musharrafs watch, also was subjected to repeated terrorist bombings that have killed hundreds of people. Many here see a Pakistani hand in the attacks, despite vociferous denials from Islamabad.
Yet between 2004, when the nuclear-armed neighbors began the talks, and early 2008, when Musharraf was pushed aside by an elected government, "we made more progress in terms of peace than we have in the past 60 years," said retired Gen. Ashok Mehta, a strategic analyst in New Delhi.
Both sides reiterated their commitment to the peace process at a regional summit last weekend in neighboring Sri Lanka. But the tone of the talks has changed, and New Delhi sees little hope for progress.
Hindu-majority India and Muslim Pakistan were bom in the bloody partition of the subcontinent at independence from Britain in 1947. They have fought three wars, held tit-for-tat nuclear weapons tests and engaged in countless battles before peace talks got under way in 2004.
But apart from dialing down the violence along the Line of Control, the talks have made little progress toward resolving the dispute over predominantly Muslim Kashmir, which is divided between India and Pakistan and claimed by both.
Musharraf, in fact, made the boldest proposals for solving the problem, at one point suggesting the two sides give up their claims and allow the region to be self-governing.
But "India did not try to draw mileage on that and get an outline for a real agreement," said Mehta, the retired general.
"We missed the opportunity and we won' t get another right now"