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A new phase in Cambodian politics

Verghese Mathews
***The two major challenges the CPP cabinet will have is to employ all their talents and their collective to address the endemic corruption and to enhance good governance. In particular, there is a growing demand from the Cambodian people themselves for the tabling of a comprehensive Anti-Corruption Bill.***
IF there was anything absolutely certain about the fourth Cambodian general elections on July 27, it was that the ruling Cambodian People's Party was poised to win handsomely. This was an accepted certainty well before the spat between Cambodia and Thailand over Preah Vihear temple.
Official results are awaited but the unofficial polls count suggest that the CPP has done better than initially expected and may well have won more than two-thirds of the 123 seats contested by the eleven political parties. If it crosses the two-thirds mark, it will be the first time ever since the landmark 1991 Paris Peace Agreement that a single party has achieved such success.
The CPP. which began as a communist party following the Khmer Rouge overthrow in 1979, would
have very good reason to celebrate. This election has also seen much less violence than the last three elections in 1993,1998, and 2003 — which is a good enough reason for everyone and the neighbourhood to rejoice.
Even if the two-thirds is denied to the CPP, there is still reason for celebration, as it will be the first time since 1991 that a single party has taken control of the government in a general election.
Previously, a party had to secure two-thirds of the seats to form government and no party was able to do so. This led to the formation of a fractious coalition after each of the previous elections between the CPP and the royalist Funcinpec party led by Prince Norodom Ranariddh.
Following the last elections in which the CPP scored 73 seats, the formation of the coalition with Funcinpec (26 seats) took a year --
seen by many as a debilitating and wasteful year.
It is different this time around. The Constitution was amended with the support of the opposition to allow any party that obtained more than 50% of the seats to form government. While there was no doubt then that the CPP would form the next government, the party did not take this for granted. More importantly, it had no delusions -- they knew they were not universally liked in Cambodia, and that the opposition and the royalist parties had good people with good ideas and with significant support in the country.
The CPP addressed the obvious challenges by ensuring that its parliamentarians and workers were in the field, in their constituencies and in the opposition constituencies, day in and day out, listening to the rural folk, rebutting opposition claims or explaining government
action. The CPP badly wanted to rule by itself, having decided after the last elections that it would no longer waste a year negotiating a coalition government.
But much of the credit for CPP's success must go to the collective CPP leadership in running a tight ship on one hand and delivering roads, irrigation canals, schools and clinics across the country on the other. Above all, there was a prevailing sense of stability in a country that had shed so much blood and so many tears.
In that context, there can be no denying that Prime Minister Hun Sen was pivotal in CPP's success; the 2008 General Elections is in particular, Hun Sen's personal success story.
While it may now appear that Hun Sen has stamped his authority over the CPP, it is more complex than that. Although he is now more powerful than at any time before within his party, the reality is that he is not all that powerful. He will be --but not just yet.
Some things will have to be handled gingerly. Hun Sen will have to negotiate with the CPP leadership on the cabinet appointments. Given the CPP's track
record, much of the horse-trading would already have been worked out - it will be the fine-tuning now and that is where sensitivities lie.
If anyone knows power play in Cambodia, it is Hun Sen and former King Norodom Sihanouk. There is also a strategic question on the table -- whether or not to reach out to Funcinpec despite its poor showing, though there is no need for a coalition.
Better to have some of the losers in the tent theory! The greater problem for Hun Sen in the cabinet line-up is to persuade some of the old faithful to retire and infuse the cabinet with fresh blood, and in any country this must be handled delicately.
Hun Sen may not be able to achieve this in the forthcoming cabinet, but he can be expected to set the pace to do so the next time.
A Hun Sen quality that is often overlooked by the media is that for several years, now Hun Sen has been able to surround himself with a group of young officials who are all well-educated, committed, competent and hardworking.
They prepare papers, head committees, negotiate with foreign governments and organisations and
provide leadership. Several are heading major institutions and ministries. Some will gradually move to cabinet. If Hun Sen had his way, he would accelerate the process.
Challenges lie ahead for the new CPP government. One-third of the population still live below the poverty level in a country that will have oil on-stream in 2011. More youths are entering the employment market and these are potential opposition voters if they continue to remain unemployed. But these arc perennial challenges.
The two major challenges the CPP cabinet will have is to employ all their talents and their collective to address the endemic corruption and to enhance good governance. In particular, there is a growing demand from the Cambodian people themselves for the tabling of a comprehensive AntiCorruption Bill.
When the bill is passed in parliament it would be a significant start and another reason to celebrate. In the meantime. Cambodia remains the unsung success story of Asean.
Verghese Malhews. the Singapore .High Commissioner to Bangladesh, was a former Ambassador In Cambodia