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Fresh WTO talks must wait until after US election: Economists

AFP, Paris
Any new attempt to grasp the grail of a world trade pact will probably have to wait until next year, after elections in the United States and India, despite some calls for more talks now, economists say.
The head of the WTO, Pascal Lamy, who stressed after the collapse of the talks in Geneva last week that the gains made in nine days must remain on the table, revealed on Friday that talks at technical level were in fact continuing.
He also said he expected to visit India in a week's time and perhaps the United States later.
He was referring to two of the countries at the centre of the emotional breakdown of talks which, participants agreed, had almost joined hands across a deep gulf over special arrangements for protection against a flood of imports.
And a senior WTO official told AFP: "It seems practically impossible to conclude negotiations before the end of the
year.
"The idea is to continue to advance to be able to present a package all tied up to the new US administration and to India after the (US presidential) elections," he said.
Mcawnhile, Nobel prizewinning economist Joseph Stiglitz said: "The talks will not be able to resume until after the American elections."
The talks last week struggled late into many nights and through many issues affecting directly or indirectly the peoples of the world, of all classes in all sectors on all continents.
There was general agreement, but from different angles, that the world’s poorest stand to gain or los the most.
The breakdown threw up various views of the future, from analysis that emerging countries have gained new stature to suggestions that the talks should treat agriculture separately from other subjects.
Stiglitz said a quick resumption of the talks was all the more unlikely because it is "difficult to negotiate an
accord when unemployment is on the rise and the economy is weakening."
India, one of the key players at the talks, is also facing elections at the end of the year, which leaves the government little room for concessions.
The audacious attempt in Geneva to break apart a sevenyear log jam in the so-called Doha Round of trade opening talks, hit deadlock between India and the US over the so-called special safeguard mechanism.
This enables countries to impose a special tariff on certain agricultural goods in the event of an import surge or price fall.
Stiglitz was scathing of Washington's insistence that extra duties should be imposed only if imports surged by 40 percent.
"Nobody in agriculture has a 40-percent margin," he said. "A 40-percent decline in price would have put most developing countries into bankruptcy. The issue was one of very survival."
Stiglitz said there might be a better chance of reaching agreement following the US presidential elections in November.
"I hope that if Obama gets elected, there will be a new commitment to multilateralism," Stiglitz said. "I hope that Obama will realise how important multilateralism is and will resume the talks on a more reasonable basis."
Some countries, however, have not hidden their satisfaction at seeing the Doha round paralysed again. Italy is among a group of nine European countries, including France and Ireland, who believe that Europe had made too many concessions.
French agriculture minister Michel Barnier has suggested opening talks with other institutions such as the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation and the International Monetary Fund.
Stiglitz, however, said that it would be difficult to shift the negotiations to other organisations.