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Energy scenario and challenges in the new millennium

Dr. Rafiqul Islam
WORLD'S population by 2030 will reach eight billion from its current 6.4 billion. With the rise of population, global energy demand will grow by almost 60 per cent by 2030.
At present almost 40 per cent of global electricity generation is based on coaL
Though considerable attention is given to renewable energy but IEA predicts that by 2030 only 14 per cent of total energy demand will be met from renewable sources. The use of renewable energy provides for about 3 per cent of the world's primary energy consumption at the moment
There is a forecast of depletion in the supply of oil and gas in next 50 years.
Now 1.6 billion of world's population are without electricity, and about 2.4 billion rely almost exclusively on traditional biomass as their principal energy source. At the present consumption level, known reserves of fuels are estimated as the following:
Fuel Reserve (Yrs)
Coal 230
Oil 45
Gas 63
Nuclear 54
It is not wise for any government to depend on a single energy source. New Zealand's crises in 1998. 2001 and 2003 occurred as a result of over dependency on a single energy source -- hydro power In California due to severe
energy crisis in 2000-2001 al300-mile transmission system to generate 12000 MW of electricity has been planed. ENEL. Italy's largest generator, aims to double its coal fired capacity to over 10,000 MW.
Wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation are experiencing an exponential growth as costs decrease, and they become commercially competitive.
There is slow growth in hydroelectric power generation: perhaps the most remarkable event be the forth coming addition of 18.2 GWe (electricity) with theThree-Gorgesdamin China in 2009 However, construction of such projects poses various environmental and social problems; and hydroelectric projects in warm climate vegetated regions cause significant release of methane.
About 5000 MW solar photovoltaic power has been installed now in world and it experiences growth of 31 per cent a year on an average over the past decade. The EU goal is to attain 3000 MW by 2010 while Japan s alone is 5000 MW. The cost of PV systems is still too high, but there is forecast to produce electricity at competitive price by the year2020.
There is considerable public opposition on the use of nuclear energy Nuclear power produces 16 percent of world electricity now As of June 2006. there were 442 nuclear power plants in operation with a total net installed capacity of 370 GW(e) and as of December 2005 the US accumulated about 53,440 tons
of spent nuclear fuel from nuclear reactors and there are 200 million tons of low-level waste from uranium milling, at mine sites. Many other countries also have large amounts of such wastes and there is no decision yet for long-term radioactive waste storage or destruction. And as I said public perception regarding nuclear energy use is still not good because of nuclear wastes, and its apprehended use for warfare and terrorism.
There is a forecast of depiction in the supply of oil and gas in next 50 years. A major concern is that the price of oil is lately rising very rapidly, from $28 in 2003, to $38/barrel in 2005, to $70 in 2006
and to above $130 in 2008. Coal can play a unique role in meeting the demand for a secure energy supply.
Considering main energy resource in Bangladesh there has been forecast that the total remaining gas reserve would meet the country's projected energy demand upto 2015 though I believe if we can properly manage to explore this natural resource, especially in tire Bay of Bengal and with its rational utilization, the reserve will serve for atleast further three decades. But definitely with this reserve we cannot think of exporting our gas, rather it is such a good energy resource that if we have the chance to buy it ensuring
constant supply we can think of establishing petro-chemical complexes using it as feed stock and the products could be exported.
As the supply of petroleum and gas gets squizzed and their cost continues to rise, a gradual shift may be observed toward liquid or gaseous fuels made from coal. In order to study our coal from Barapukuria, five samples were received from seams at depths of 160m, 207m, 350m, 382m, and 396m and were studied in the Chemical, Environmental & Mining Engineering Department of the University of Nottingham,UK.
Proximate and Ultimate
Analyses were done and the results were presented at the 14th International Conferences on Coal Science,held in UK(detailed in the proceedings).
Coal from Barapukuria field is of bituminous type. Preliminary research shows that liquid products can be obtained from this coal. However, it is not suitable for use as coking coal. Its heating value is 11,040 BTU/Ib with low sulfur content It is suitable for combustion to produce power. This can solve our power crisis to a great extent Our preliminary' research work show's capture of CO2 from various emission points like power plants and its ultimate conversion to essential chemicals may be the most important way in future for CO2 reduction and its management.
Franz Fischer and Hans TYopsch (1925) developed a catalyst that converted CO and H2 into liquid hydrocarbons. Another approach to liquid fuels from coal is based on the reaction between CO and H2 to form methanol.CH3OH.
Recognizing the potential impact of global warming on life on the planet, 141 nations have come together to form a pact to mitigate CO2 - - the Kyoto protocol which calls for a 2 per cent reduction in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases below 1990 levels, by 2012.
In order to meet this goal, treaty signatories would rely on the development of carbon sinks, new clean energy technologies and advanced
technologies to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 in particular.
Possible Solutions: 1.Carbon Sequestration, 2. Biological Conversion of CO2, 3. Chemical Conversion of CO2.
But the technologies are still too expensive.
Carbon Capture and Sequestration, which is now thought to be one of the most potential future carbon management technologies, involves three stages: i) CO2 Capture, ii) Transport and
iii) Storage.There are three main storage options: a) Depleted or near-depleted oil and gas fields, b) Deep saline aquifers, c) Unmineable coal seams.
The most eminent challenge is that expected demand for electricity would require during the coming two decades the installation of as much power generation capacity as was installed in the entire 20th century. Because of its abundance in the most energyconsuming countries such as China, the USA, parts of Europe and India, and Australia, coal is likely to be increasingly the main basic fuel for these plants, and its use would increasingly have to be accompanied by CO2 separation and sequestration.
Despite the unresolved problems of waste storage, and to some extent safety, nuclear power plants are likely to be constructed for special needs, such as in countries that have better access to uranium
than to fossil fuels. The amount of uranium in the world is insufficient for massive long-term nuclear power generation, which can only change if breeder reactors are used, but that technology is not safe and mature enough and is not likely to be in the next couple of decades.
Wind power progress is remarkable. With a capacity increase of about 15 GWelectricityin2006.it is forecasted to rise to 29 GW/year by 2014. “Wind Force 12" is a plan to globally reach by the year 2020: Meeting 12 per cent of global electricitydemand.
Wind Energy in the North sea
Wind power generation will be deployed massively, but will be limited to regions where wind is economically available.
PV power generation will continue to rise, increasing in efficiency and decreasing in price, but being still several times more expensive than other power generation methods and for other technical reasons, it may not reach priority in the coming decade.
Underground coal gasification may be a suitable environmental friendly technology for obtaining valuable products from coal. We have to ensure it now. because future progress of mankind will be Impossible without a substantial and continuing energy supply.
Dr RaRqui Islam is a Professor of the Dept of Apoked Chemistry & Chemical Technology, Dhaka University and at the moment Wst>ng Professor m Karlsruhe University. Germany