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Failure of Bush Doctrine in ME and the new US challenges •

Khaled Khalifa
Regionally, as we approach the end of the Bush term, U.S. foreign policy is suffering from a zero achievement syndrome without even mentioning the Iraqi fiasco!
In Iraq, nearly all the coalition forces are deserting the battle. The Australians have already departed from central and northern Iraq after the election of the new Australian Prime Minister. The former Prime Minister is faang crimi -nal charges against humanity resulting from the Iraqi invasion.
The Polish forces will withdraw in October 2008, at that time the Americans and the British will be the last forces remaining in Iraq.
The two American presidential candidates. John McCain and Barack Obama, have suggested different dates for the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq. In principal, they both agree to a withdrawal The only question is when?
Obama has given the date of 2010 in order to save the American forces from a decline and the strategic American doctrine from a total failure. McCain refuses to declare a specific date. He wants to stay for an undefined time period and continue with the Bush doctrine in the Middle East
McCain believes that the continuation of the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism must remain two important pillars of (he U.S. doctrine in the Middle East He will maintain the policy of
containing terrorism and remaining in Iraq, ewn with all the casualties and unrest that it involves.
If elected, Obama will still have to follow at least pan of the Bush policy in Iraq and the Middle East both in the short term and the long term
American forces are currently not succeeding in smoothing relations between the Military Government and the other Shiite factions mainly of Muctada El Sada, the leader of the El Mahdi Army. Maliki flew to Iran and met with Mahmoud Ahmedinejad in order to try to settle this issue. The Iranians demanded from Maliki not to sign any agreement with the Americans, especially for the long term El Maliki, however, is not a reliable leader. He will try to manipulate both the Americans and the Iranians.
Obama if he is elected, will want to conduct a direct dialogue with the Iranians over the future of Iraq in order to withdraw immediately, or at least as soon as possible. It's hard to predict what will happen or to be confident regarding all the wishful expectations.
El- Maliki is not in a position to resist any American pressure applied by the Bush administration. Never the less, we can say that his visit to Iran was only a verbal payment to the Iranians. Moreover, the Khamence leadership has warned the Iraqi leader that the real problem in Iraq is the existence of the American forces and that the Iraqis haw to work quickly to remove the American occupation from their country
The Iranians gave their allies in Iraq a signal to observe a "kind of truce" to see whether the Americans will try to withdraw. According to the Bush administration, the Americans will stay in Iraq for a long time. Bush will try to create a situation where his successor, whether Obama or McCain, will not be able to leave Iraq anytime soon. Bush is trying to complicate the strategic issues. On his recent visit to Slovenia ne tried to convince the Europeans to approve further sanctions against Iran. The Europeans will soon be part of this Bush containment policy. Israel, headed by the weak Olmert government, allowed a leader such as Mofaz to threaten the Iranians and as a result to contnbute to the increase of the price of oil by tens of dollars for a single barrel
President George Bush will try to prevent any incoming president from declaring victory in Iraq and then withdrawing He is trying to reach an understanding with El Maliki on a permanent status agreement which will maintain the strategic interests of the U.S. in Iraq. It's quite certain that this agreement will not work. However, Bush believes that it can and that it will neutralize any possibility of withdrawing from Iraq by any upcoming American president
The escalation with Iran is part of this strategy. If the U.S. becomes embroiled in a war with Iran, it will be nearly impossible to withdraw from the Gulf.
Currently, President Bush is making a gloomy farewell tour of Europe with out having left any historic legacy, only a legacy of continuing wars and conflict. Bush has urged the Europeans to continue to be a part of the U.S. efforts. By pushing the Europeans to the front they become part of the conflict, preventing them from becoming neutral and suggesting solutions.
These Last six months left Bush without any real historic and comprehensive project, only the continuation of the destruction of Iraq and a large scale presence in Afghanistan Though Bush wants to continue imposing pressure and sanctions on Iran. I am doubtful whether he will have the courage to carry out a military strike against Iran.
Bush will ask the Europeans to continue to conduct his old policy of marginalizing Syria, containing Iran, giving support to Afghanistan and further political and military support for Israel. In his national radio speech which was broadcasted on June 14, 2008, this policy of continued occupa -tion of Iraq and Afghanistan which has been brutally conducted against the countries of the Middle East since the beginning ofhis term was reaffirmed.
It is rather certain that this policy will not succeed and will collapse sooner or Liter after Bush's disappearance from the scene Neither McCain nor Obama will succeed in continuing this brutal jiolicy. If they trytodosothcywillquickly realize that they are bound to faiL
Pie author it a journalist and member of The Arab Council for Foreign Relations He has contnbuted this article Io The Daily Star.