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India inflation could hit double digits

AFP, Bangalore
India's inflation could hit double-digits percent in coming weeks if global oil prices rise further, the head of the prime minister's economic advisory council warned on Thursday.
And those soaring oil prices could spell "serious trouble" for the booming Indian economy, the chairman of Premier Manmohan Singh's Economic Council said.
C. Rangarajan forecasted spiralling prices could push up inflation by three-quarters of a percentage point on Friday, when the latest data is due to be released.
"There will be a steep 0.75 percent hike to 9.5 percent," Rangarajan said in Bangalore, India's IT hub.
Inflation jumped to 8.75 percent for the week ended May 31 — the highest since February 2001 -- from 8.24 percent a week earlier, according to the Wholesale Price Index, India's most watched cost-of-living measure.
Rangarajan warned inflation could reach 10 percent soon on the back of a sharp rise in state-set domestic fuel prices by the government, which said publicly owned oil firms could no longer sustain
huge losses caused by record global crude costs.
"As a result of higher fuel prices, if prices of food articles, goods and services go up, the inflation rate will touch 10 percent in the coming weeks," Rangarajan said.
Many private economists have made similar forecasts.
"If (global) oil prices rise (further), as has been feared in some quarters, the Indian economy is going to be in serious trouble," he added.
India imports some 70 percent of its crude oil needs to feed its fast-expanding -- and Asia's third-largest — economy.
The Congress party, which heads the national coalition, has suffered a string of state poll defeats with inflation, which has hit India's poor the hardest, blamed as a key culprit
It is anxious to reduce inflation with general elections due to be held by May 2009 but a series of aggressive monetary tightening measures by the central Reserve Bank of India has failed to tame prices.
Rangarajan forecast inflation would remain significantly above the central bank’s comfort level of 5.5 percent in coming months, though it could recede a little.