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Dhaka should plan seriously to address climate refugee issue

UNFPA Representative Arthur Erken tells The Daily star

Porimol Palma
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) applauds Bangladesh's proactive stance on climate change, for which the country is not responsible but is likely to witness displacement of millions of people and agricultural ’ loss due to floods and sea level rise.
Emphasising the urgent need to further reduce the birth rate in an already highly populated land, the UN body also calls upon both developed and developing nations to find out ways to ensure that millions of people will not be uprooted from their lands.
In an exclusive interview with The Daily Star, the UNFPA Representative in Bangladesh Arthur Erken made this observation on the basis of his one-year experience of serving in Bangladesh and his previous experiences of working in the field of population and development.
’Bangladesh is likely to experience serious consequences of the expected rises in sea levels. Millions living in the coastal areas and on the islands will probably move to urban areas putting additional pressures on the already fragile infrastructures in those townships. Bangladesh should seriously plan for this, keeping these issues in mind," he said.
As remedies to these problems, । he suggested improvements in water management, boosting agricultural production by applying the latest technologies, creating employment opportunities for rural people flowing into the urban centres and further reducing the fertility rate.
These require good planning and investments. Bangladesh should, therefore, be vocal in the global arena. All should come together to find out a way out, " he said when asked if the developed countries should come forward with more assistance for the developing nations who face serious
tion growth and challenges of climate changes.
Lauding Bangladesh's achievement in total fertility rate (TFR), he said according to Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2007, the total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 3 children per woman in 2004 to 2.7 children per woman, a 10 per cent decrease in just 3 years.
But the population expert did not rule out the potential for a further population boom.
Arthur said that in the early 1970s, the population of Bangladesh was less than 80 million, but right now it is close to 150 million. The UN projects that with the current fertility rate another 80 million people are likely to be added to the present population by 2050.
"The reason? Look at the demography. Very few people today are very old, but around 50 per cent of the population is younger than 14 years. That means that half of the population of this country hasn't even entered their child-
bearing years, and will still get children," Arthur said.
"With a current TFR of 2.7 or 2.5 children per woman, this means that an enormous group is still to come. This is population momentum."
So, it is imperative to urgently achieve replacement level fertility or below, meaning the level whereby each generation is as big as the next, he said. When each woman gets no more than two children, this is replacement level fertility, as she would just replace herself and her husband, Arthur said.
With populations booming in the less developed world, migration pressures will increase the pressure on cities. In Bangladesh, already a quarter of the population lives in urban areas, and the next 20 years this wall double, the UNFPA representative said.
"Unless we make the much needed investments in Dhaka and other cities in the country, the absorption of newcomers will remain a huge challenge for all of us, as every'day at least 1000 people
are entering the capital to seek a livelihood."
It is not only a national issue, but a global issue, Arthur said, adding "You already have a lot of problems today. Think about it when the population goes beyond 240 million, it will undoubtedly cause even more economic, social and environmental distress in the country."
To achieve replacement level fertility as early as possible, Arthur said, achieving gender equality, universal education and the use of modern family planning methods are the best ways.
Despite the fact that Bangladesh has had enormous success with its family planning programme (with 47 per cent of couples now using modern contraceptives like condoms and pills), still too many people lack knowledge about or access to family planning.
Arthur suggested some changes in the nature of family planning programme, underscoring the need for improving the quality of counseling and moving towards the promotion of more long-term or permanent family planning methods.
"Partly, there is a psychological barrier that make people hesitate to use permanent method. Through better counseling, we have to see how we can overcome this barrier."
Coming to HIV/AIDS prevalence, he said Bangladesh has so far been spared from the epidemic of HIV/AIDS, but the country is highly vulnerable because of the high prevalence in neighbouring countries.
"I am still very worried. The potential for HIV/AIDS is still very high. The promotion of condom use is very important."
In the end, he summed up UNFPA's priorities in Bangladesh, that is to ensure that every pregnancy is wanted, every birth is safe, every person free from HIV and AIDS, and every girl and woman is treated with dignity and respect.