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Thirty days to save Burma’s next rice crop

Larry Jagan
***MMHBMHBBMBHHM^'^MHHMH^HI^HMMHI Most Burmese aid workers and volunteers Iwho have been working in the Delta in the past few weeks are sceptical that many rice farmers will be able to plant their crop, even though the military authorities have begun to order rice farmers to return to their fields and plant the monsoon harvest. "They are more concerned about surviving and getting food for the families than returning to their farms," said a Thai volunteer who has just spent a week in the worst-affected areas of the Delta.***
WHILE Burma counts the cost of the deadly Cyclone Nargis, and international aid agencies struggle to get relief supplies to more than two million victims left homeless, time is running out for the country's rice farmers if they are to plant their new crops before the end if the main growing season. If seeds are not sown within the next thirty days in the Irrawaddy Delta — Burma's rice bowl - the country's future rice production will be severely reduced, UN specialists warn.
"The clock is ticking if the country's next rice crop is to be saved," Diderik de Vleeschauwer, a spokesman for the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) told the Daily Star. "Farmers have until the end of June to replant their seedlings, otherwise Burma’s food production will be sorely reduced," he said. Then they have to replant the seedlings and care for them with fertilisers before the end August.
The medium and long-term effect of the cyclone on Burma's economy is also going to be significant "The damage to the economy is serious indeed, both in the short
and long terms," said Sean Turneli, a specialist on the Burmese economy at Macquarie University in Australia. "Rice and agriculture is only part of the picture — livestock has been decimated by the cyclone, while the fishing industry, including the
lucrative prawn and shrimp farms, has all but been destroyed," he said.
But, for the moment, the biggest headache is planting the next rice crop in time. Agricultural experts are warning that the cyclone disaster could yet turn Burma from a rice exporting nation into an importer. "Food stores have been lost, seeds have been destroyed, and other assets needed have all been swept away,” Mr. de Vleeschauwer said.
"In the lower Delta (hardest hit by the cyclone) they just do not have the capital to replace the seeds, livestock and tools needed to start replanting rice in the next few months," he said.
This is the time the usual planting season starts in the Irrawaddy Delta — which produces two-thirds of Burma's rice. Around a quarter of the rice paddy in this area is still flooded with salty sea-water and decaying animal carcases and human corpses. These have to be cleared before planting can begin.
The heavy rains that have fallen in the area over the last two weeks have helped dilute the brackish water a little, but it is still a major problem. The irrigation channels need to be repaired and water pumps replaced. The paddy field walls need to be restored. More than half of the region's livestock, that was used for ploughing, has been killed.
The excess water needs to be drained away and the debris cleared from the land. So far very
little has happened. Pumps are badly needed, according to local aid workers who have been to the region, and then the land needs to be tilled.
"We are looking at providing small Chinese-made tractors for some of this work," said another agricultural expert working in Burma. "But in some areas the water is so high that machines won't work."
Then there is an acute need for fertilisers, which are scarce in Burma at the best of times. All fertilisers need to be imported and are generally too expensive for the average farmer. But fertilisers are essential to boost rice yields, according to the FAO.
"On poor or depleted soils, yields can be increased by up to 30% through the provision and use of nitrogen fertilisers," said the FAO's de Vleeschauwer. "In this area the use of fertilisers is considered highly critical," hesaid.
This may prove to be the real key in the future as Burma's rice yields are well below its neighbours', including China, Thailand and Vietnam.
"Since before the cyclone this extremely productive area was performing way below potential -mainly because of the regime's wilful neglect and terrible policies towards agriculture," said Seam Turneli. Unless there is an amazing increase in the use of fertilisers in the near future, the Irrawaddy rice output is certain to be only a fraction of what it was last year — and certainly nowhere near its poten-
tial.
But at present the problem is getting the farmers back onto the land. "There is a question about the ability of the rice planters to get back to cultivation," said Paul Risely, a regional spokesman for the World Food Program. "They've got to put their houses back together first."
"Even then the farmers will need to be supported with food supplies until their crops are harvested," he added. The WFP expects to have food-for-work programs in place in the delta area for at least the next six months.
Even if some rice is planted this year, the yield is likely to be severely reduced. "We can certainly count on very meagre crops for an indefinite future," said Professor Sean Turneli. "The next two harvests will be greatly affected, but the costs of about 50% of this loss will continue well beyond that."
Most Burmese aid workers and volunteers who have been working in the Delta in the past few weeks are sceptical that many rice farmers will be able to plant their crop, even though the military authorities have begun to order rice farmers to return to their fields and plant the monsoon harvest.
"They are more concerned about surviving and getting food for the families than returning to their farms," said a Thai volunteer who has just spent a week in the worst-affected areas of the Delta. "Everywhere outside the towns, the fields and waterway's were full of rotting animal carcases and bloated bodies."
Burma's fishing industry, much of which is also based in the delta area, has been badly hit. Most of the country's fishing fleet has either been destroyed or is missing, according to local government officials. Before the cyclone, there were an estimated 26,000 small boats and more than 2,000
medium sized fishing vessels that operated off-shore.
More than half of the country's fishing industry has been wiped out, according to a government official in the agriculture ministry. Over 20,000 fishermen are reportedly dead and nearly 6,000 are still missing in the delta, he said. Thousands of fish-ponds, which helped supplement the farmers' food and incomes, have also been rendered useless by the salt-water.
Many of the shrimp and prawn farms in near Rangoon and in the Irrawaddy Delta have been destroyed or badly damaged by the cyclone, a Burmese businessman involved in the export of prawns to Thailand told the Daily Star on condition of anonymity.
The marine fisheries in this area produce more than half the country's fish supply, while the coastal aquaculture - shrimp farms, and to a lesser extent mud crabs and groupers — accounts for nearly twenty percent of production. Both these sectors in recent years have generated significant export earnings. "The cyclone is likely to have reduced this to a fraction of last year's output and will severely dent the country's export trade,’ said the Burmese fisheries exporter.
The delta was also the country's major salt producer. Laputta, which- was almost completely destroyed by the Cyclone Nargis four weeks ago, was the center of Burma's salt industry, producing salt for the entire country, according to a wholesaler in Rangoon. Offices, salt mills and warehouses have all been swept away, according to aid workers now distributing relief supplies in the town. "All the salt stored here has been destroyed," said a Burmese volunteer from Rangoon.
"The salt industry cannot be operational for months," said a businessman from Rangoon.
"Millions of Kyat will be needed in investment before the salt industry can resume production."
The Burmese government estimates it needs $ 243 million alone to repair rice production in the affected areas in the delta and around Rangoon. It estimates it will cost S 25 million to replace the livestock in the cyclone. And the bill for the fishing industry will be astronomic, according to UN officials V
The long-tern affect of the cyclone could yet be even more devastating for Burma than the initial loss of lives and homes. It will definitely increase the country's economic woes and drain the government's already meagre international reserves. Although Burma exponed very little rice, it is likely to need to import rice in the next twelve months.
"This is going to prove a very high "opportunity cost” for the government in the coming months, particularly given the present and likely future international demand and high prices for rice," said SeanTurneli.
"Imports will certainly increase — of basic commodities and foodstuffs, all at very high international prices -- and exports will fall dramatically, especially from the fisheries sector, putting increased pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves," he said.
Gas revenue will remain robust, but now much of this will be swallowed up by the cost of these increased imports, he said.
This is all certain to lead to spiralling inflation. And without the capacity to increase workers' wages and government servants' salaries, there is likely to be further anti-inflation protests and unrest in the coming months.
Larry Jagan writes for The Daily Star from Bangkok.