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What should Senator Clinton do?

Forrest Cookson
Everyone is offering Senator Clinton advice as to how to go forward from mid-May. I am a member of the club who admire her career and efforts, so I will give her my two takas' worth.
There is little doubt in my mind that of the two Democratic candidates she is the better qualified, although it is also my view that she has not done enough real work in government to run that manyheaded monster, the United States government. She is far better prepared to be president than Mr. McCain.
The "objective reality" is as follows:
• She cannot now win the Democratic nomination.
• Obama will lose the election for president, but the Democrats will control Congress. 0 have written elsewhere on this in
"Meet Mr. McCain, the next president of the United States.") Senator McCain, 72 years old when he becomes president, will, over the four years of his term, become too old to continue as president for a second term. He is likely to experience continuing medical problems, perhaps associated with his skin
The gridlock in the American government, arising from a Republican president and a Democratic Congress, will limit the progress that can be made on most issues, although immigration will be settled and the United States will renounce torturing people. The American invasion of Iraq will come to some sort of an end. but Afghanistan will go on and on. None of the serious problems of the American economy or social structure will make much prog-
ress.
• The race relations in the United States will move backward, with deep bitterness of betrayal felt by the blacks, who will identify Obama's loss with racial preju-
So what should Senator Clinton do?
Complete the primaries and, in early June, conclude that Obama has won the nomination. Gracefully withdraw, and pledge to support him. Reject any offer of the vicepresidency. Return to the Senate and play a major role in the legislative programs during the next four years. During the election campaign, she should concentrate on helping Democratic senators running for election.
After Obama loses the elections while the Democrats gain full control of the Senate, she should step up to the highest leadership position she can get and work all-out to build a reputation for getting legislation
through the Senate. This is real work, and she can at last actually accomplish something with all of the brains and ability that she has. There is plenty to do in health care, education, and family related issues.
By 2012, the Republicans will not have done well in the presidency; McCain will not want to run again; Senator Clinton will be there to become the Democratic nominee for president
She will be elected president at about the age of 65. With her abili-
ties and her understanding of the legislative process she will be able to remake the United States and actually solve the pressing social and economic problems that now burden the nation.
All of die groups that naturally support the Democrats will see her in 2012 as the only real candidate with standing and experience. She can increase her standing by building a strong legislative record over the next four years.
Her populist views on helping the
lower income white population will gain her tremendous support. Her appeal among the Hispanic population will grow. The blacks, after a period of anger and mistrust blaming her for Obama's loss, will recognise dial she is, in fact, the best chance that they have for a better deal in the United States.
Only Senator Clinton has the vision and knowledge to rebuild the Democratic party's coalition of minorities and low-income whites (say the lower 60 percent by wealth.
education, and income). Finally, the belief that the time is right for a woman president will be very strong.
The world economy and the American economy will not have done very’ well, with a period of five years of very slow growth (2008-2012). Food prices around the world will moderate and the price of oil will stabilise around $100. Fighting inflation will be the number one issue, leading to restrictive monetary policies by the three major central banks.
However, adjustments will not be made to the imbalances of the world economy. The next five years will resolve none of the issues of the world economy.
Due to conflicts between President McCain and the Democratic Congress, the medical care issues in the United States will not be solved; the urgent need for great investments in public health will not be made. The Unites States will become involved in the struggle with global warming, finally provid -ingsome leadership.
But the issues here are such that there is no acceptable world solution, and little will be accomplished. United States military expenditures will stop growing, although more serious efforts will be made to recognise the costs of proper medi- cal care for the American soldiers who have been wounded, mentally or physically, in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Altogether, a weak performance.
There will be terrific battles over the appointment of one or two Supreme Court judges, with the Senate refusing to approve the nominees that McCain will send forward. The social issues in the United States will move more and more in the direction favoured by the Republicans, as the Roberts Court continues to hand down decisions favourable to the conservatives and to business.
The Court will probably make a decision that will reverse Roe vs. Wade, the abortion case; or, if not a full reversal, an increasingly strict interpretation. The entire issue of the court's role in settling major social issues in the United States will be, by 2012, one of the key issues of the election. A reversal on abortion will outrage most American women and strengthen the hand of Senator Clinton who, more and more, wall emerge as a real representative of women.
Play tills political game well and she will be positioned to try again in 2012.
Forres! Cookson is an economist