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Meet Mr. McCain, the next president of the United States

Forrest Cookson
THE evidence is mounting fast that Senator McCain. Republican nominee for president, a long-term senator from Arizona, and war hero in the eyes of most Americans, will be elected as president of the United States. Despite the Republicans achieving a weak economy, misconceived and poorly planned wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, an unconstitutional assault on the civil liberties of Americans, and pursuit of torture and cruelty against the persons who are suspect in the "war against terror," the Democratic party has again found a way to lose the election.
In 3004. the Democrats managed this by nominating a rich guy, without the common touch, who was not strong-willed enough to defend himself from the nasty accusations of the Republicans. This time the Democrats are nominating a black man, or at least halfblack.
The leadership of the Democratic Party have simply buried their heads in the sand, ignoring the continuing power of racism in the United States. Few are prepared to admit the reality and, instead, hide behind the claim that things are now much better. Indeed, racial discrimination problems are better, but they have not gone away.
The election of a Republican to be president for a third consecutive term means that there will never be accountability for the crimes committed by the Bush administration in promoting torture and violating the Constitution's protections under the Bill of Rights. So they got away with it!
Along with the election of a Republican president the people will elect a strong Democratic Congress, with both the House of Representatives and the Senate having substantial Democratic majorities. The result will be a legislative grid-lock, with a more aggressive Democratic Congress determined to impose their own policies on the Republican president.
The Democrats face the following situation: the American electorate can be divided into three groups: Non-Hispanic whites, blacks, and Hispanic whites. I believe that Senator Obama will
be the candidate nominated by the Democrats. The black voters will give him virtually 100 percent of their votes.
The Hispanics, many of whom live in the same areas as the poor blacks with whom they are in conflict in many ways, will vote heavily for the Republican candidate, continuing and accelerating a trend of the past few presidential elections. The one issue that Hispanics care about passionately is die treatment of illegal immigrants.
While right wing Republicans want to make life very difficult for the illegal immigrants Senator McCain has been a strong supporter of making it easier for illegal immigrants to legalise their status. This, along with Hispanic attitudes towards the blacks, will be sufficient to draw more of the Hispanics to the Republicans.
Compared to past elections, Obama will gain from even greater black support (it was almost 88 percent in the 2004 election), but this will be offset by his losses among the Hispanics.
White voters will shift even more to the Republicans. No matter how much one looks the other way, the United States remains a nation that is deeply racial in its attitudes. Much of this is concealed, as it is not popular to express such feelings; but in the secrecy of the polling booth it will emerge.
Many Obama supporters believe that he will attract strong support from white voters, based on his performance in the primaries. Such ideas are based on exit polls, which may be very deceptive as many conceal their racial attitudes.
In big states like California, Clinton probably did better among the whites than the exit polls showed. But it is the key swing states -- Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania -- that are critical to the presidential election where the whites will not support Obama, based on the primary results.
While most Americans are fed up with the Bush presidency and its widespread failures to manage the economy well, and the incompetence demonstrated in Iraq, this distaste will not shift to McCain.
First, McCain will convince many that he has the best chance to stop the war in Iraq. As a trusted military figure, the population has much more confidence in him than in Obama, who has no record at all with respect to national security affairs (1952 election with Eisenhower and Stevenson).
Second, the Republicans will fight a very nasty campaign, filling the air-waves with the speeches of the Reverend Wright who has shocked the whites who, finally,
are hearing about how black poo pie really feel; and the senior thesis at Princeton of Michelle, Obama’s wife, whose views will shock -- even if this was written many years ago.
Third, McCain appeals to a large number of American whites independently of their political views: He is a war hero; he is a maverick going his own way -- a favourite American attribute; and he upholds the ideals of traditional patriotism, still a powerful force in the United States.
Senator Obama's general position that things are not going very well and that he can fix them is, ultimately, not a message that the white voters want to hear from a black guy. Put another way - "I may be sick but I do not want this doctor."
I think that the top 40 percent of the population will vote heavily for the Republican candidate; McCain, after all, is going to look after them by maintaining low taxes and not threatening their dominant position in the society.
The bottom 40 percent will largely vote Democrat. It is middle the 20 percent that McCain and Obama will struggle to gain support from. In this group, I believe that racial feelings are alive and strong although hidden away.
In the actual voting, the white voters will shift towards McCain. Many will offset their "guilt" by voting for Democrats for Congress. The anger of the American people at the Bush administration will fall on the Republican senators and con- gressmen, but not on McCain.
The central issue in this election in the Untied States, now six months away, is race. Have no illusions about this. The United States has done wonders in removing racial prejudice; compared to most nations it is far along in this regard. For example: caste prejudice in India is far worse; Japan simply sees nonJapanese as another species; German and French people treat their immigrants far worse than
American black citizens are treated. But this remarkable progress in the US does not mean that the attitudes and feelings have vanished! Far from it!
The day after the 2008 election, the blacks will cry foul, the Democrats will engage in angry attacks among themselves. The United States will be subjected to another four years where there will be very limited progress in building a fairer society.
The blacks' position in America is a very complex issue: More and more Americans are colour blind But a large number of Americans still see blacks as their inferiors; in the cities there is great fear of the blacks in whites. American communities and schools are, de facto, largely segregated.
Most sociological measures show the blacks significantly behind, or with a social structure that cannot support change for the better (broken families; rejection of good grades as this is being like whites etc.).
However unreasonable, white urban Americans remain scared of blacks. For whatever reasons, blacks earn significantly less that whites, live shorter lives, and their social conditions are worse.
McCain will silently become the symbol of protecting white Americans and he will win the necessary votes to fulfill this role Whites are worried, concerned about the tensions in their society, and scared of Islamic fundamentalists blowing them up! They think McCain will protect them. My argument is admittedly not popular. The test is the outcome. Six months ahead, I believe Mr. McCain will emerge as president.
I hope I am wrong. In an Obama-McCain contest, Obama promises the leadership to a better future for the United States. But my personal views are irrelevant. I maintain that the remaining prejudice in the US will cause Obama to lose the election.
Forrest Cookson is an economist.