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The global food crisis and Bangladesh

We need to remember that food tan loom as an engine of profit and also of protest. Today, increased demand is affecting the politics of scarcity throughout the developing world. The recent rise in global food commodity prices is here to stay. It is not just a short-term blip on our national economic radar screen. It also has latent socio-cultural implications. Without efficient farming methods (in view of our arable land scarcity and steady loss of farming area to homesteads) we might end up revisiting dire Malthusian predictions.

Muhammad Zamir
THE political leadership all over the world realise that it is important that the international community takes measures to not only ensure lower prices of food products but also food security. The FAO is meeting specially for this in Rome in June. The G 0 will also be meeting at the Summit level in Japan in July. The leaders of the industrialized nations will be specially focusing on this issue to find emergency and longer-term solutions. The significance of the deteriorating situation has also been underlined by the WFP when they launched an appeal for additional emergency donations to meet this 'silent tsunami ofstarvation'.
It is now generally agreed that an extra 100 million people, who previously did not require help, can now not afford to buy minimum quantities of food for themselves and their families. Soaring prices have also threatened antipoverty and health improvement initiatives in the world's poorest nations including Bangladesh. Millions in our country, who were not in the urgent hunger category seven months ago, today fall within that description. It would be interesting to note here that in 2007, rice price in Bangladesh rose by 42.6 percent on average while wheat posted a rise of 55.4 percent. Edible oil and milk powder increased by 42.8 percent and 48.9 percent respectively. We have had small demonstrations in Bangladesh (due largely to the existing state of emergency) but elsewhere in Haiti, Egypt. Gabon and Afghanistan the protests have been more violent.
The global increase in food prices have been blamed on rising populations, the use of blo-fucls aimed at combating climate change, higher demand for cereals for livestock (particularly in China to meet the growing demand of more protein for half a billion upwardly economically mobile Chinese), national disasters, a very poor rice crop in Australia and higher energy prices. This deteriorating scenario has been further exacerbated by latest statistics that revealed that global rice demand
had risen by 0.9 percent last year, while production increased by 0.7 percent. It has also been men tioned that Asia's rice stock is at its lowest in decades.
This has led to a scramble among heavily populated countries like China, India and Vietnam all of whom want to maintain their minimum levels of food security. They have consequently curbed their rice export. It is a similar story in Kazakhstan and Argentina (who deal in other surplus food staples).
In Bangladesh (as in many other developing countries) the focus Is now on planners looking ahead towards food security within the country and also the region. This has led to Bangladesh proposing the formation of an international task force to address the global food shortage during the recently concluded UNCTAD XII session at Accra, Ghana. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has already initiated the necessary process in this regard. Such a proactive and constructive engagement will definitely help in identifying the required strategic steps.
The Bangladesh economy has been hit very hard over the last
three financial quarters We have had natural disasters (affected 3.7 percent of our GDP) and then been hit by the double whammy of sharp rise in prices of food commodities (rice, wheat, sugar, edible oil, dairy products) and oil Our economic development has also been severely hampered through the international price rise of steel, aluminum and capital machinery required particularly for our textile and energy sectors. Our anti-corruption efforts and
quest for good governance have also slowed our pace of doing business and manufacturing compared to our growing import bills. Thank God for our remittances. Its steady presence has enabled us to withstand the economic shock.
The IMF, a few days ago, has pointed out that the soaring food bill will slow down economic growth in Bangladesh to 5.0 to 5.5 percent this fiscal year. It is also expected to cast a shadow on our balance of payments and on our already depleted foreign exchange reserves. Such assessments have been made on the presumption that the country, this fiscal year, is looking at increased food and fertilizer import bills of US dollar 630 million and relief and reconstruction costs of US dollar 850 million. There is also the huge crude oil bill. All of this is bound to impact on the already unbearable state of inflation. It was over 11 percent in January and is expected to moderate only slightly to 10 percent by end FY 2008.
I believe that this future scenario assumes darker shades; given the fact that availability of surplus staple cereal internationally will
get scarcer in the near future. Following the recent trend, more food grain and cropping area will also be diverted to the production of bio-fuel and ethanol. This will happen despite the emerging disquiet among many environmentalists and economists that ethanol is not necessarily the best or the cheapest alternative to fossil fuel
Given these circumstances, the only way out for Bangladesh appears to be sustainable agricul-
tural development; so that we can meet our food grain needs sooner than later. The other alternative is to be like Singapore and be mas sivcly industrialized, so that we have enough earnings from export to feed the population.
In any case, in the meantime, we need to target a production level of at least 32 million tons of rice by mid-2010 so that we can have the semblance of food security.
The first step should be to carry out a renewed, intensive land survey of cropping area at the entire village level of the country. A lot of information already exists. I believe that this will help us to identify tens of thousands of hect ares of potential arable unused land in the coastal zone, near water bodies, in waterlogged regions and in monga affected areas. The second step could be re calibration by the relevant authorities of the national need, according to seasons, of quality of fertilizers (of the different types), pesticides and the profile of water management and distribution that is required for different crops. Lack of proper coordination, quite often results in under-utilization of scarce land area and eventually leads to
reduced productivity. We just cannot afford such under achievement anymore either by this interim administration or by any future political government (who tn their own way should be finalizing the steps that they will be taking in this regard) after the next elections
The third factor should be more emphasis on capacity building and creation of better procurement storage facilities (to avoid unnecessary loss due to rodents
and decay). The pricing conditions for procurement also needs to be re-evaluated so that farmers are encouraged towards greater effort. The fourth factor is the transfer of better technology, use of more mechanised approach and agricultural credit extension within this sector. This could also include careful selection of genetically modified seeds so that yield can be substantially increased to match the levels in Vietnam, China, Thailand and India. This would also apply in the case of edible oil, spices, vegetables sand sugarcane.
These are important measures that will need to be monitored and objectively implemented. This could be achieved through a public-private partnership, with the private sector being given the encouragement of tax breaks as well as duty free import of required agricultural machinery and seeds.
The Department of Agriculture Extension has already taken the first correct step through their Taka 529 million project which aims to extend modern agroengineering and technological know-how among the grassroots
levcl farmers. This scheme was started in July 2005 and is now being implemented In 112 upazllas in 56 districts. Hopefully, this initiative will be carefully monitored on a continuous basis, to ascertain whether the farmers are learning cost-effective use of irrigation, surface water conservation, removing water stagnancy from cultivation fields, the benefits of cropping intensity, quality development of crops and proper application of agricultural machinery (like power-tiller, seeder, weedier, sprayer, self-propelled and power tiller operated reaper, power thresher, winnower and drier). The scheme should be replicated throughout the country If it is found to be successful.
We need to remember that food can loom as an engine of profit and also of protest Today, increased demand is affecting the politics of scarcity throughout the developing world. The recent rise in global food commodity prices is here to stay. It is not just a shortterm blip on our national economic radar screen. It also has latent socio-cultural implications. Without efficient farming methods (in view of our arable land scarcity and steady loss of farming area to homesteads) we might end up revisiting dire Malthusian predictions.
I have mentioned it before, both in the print and the electronic media, that time has come for the current interim, caretaker, nonpolitical, technocratic government to sit seriously with representatives from different political parties, agronomists and economists, constitute a committee and agree on the requisite steps that need to be taken on a priority basis (before a political government is in place) to achieve food security. The points that will emerge on the basis of consensus from this committee could then be placed for consideration in front of our development partners. If we hesitate, we shall be left behind. There are many other developing countries competing for funds.
Muhammad Zamir « a former Secretary and Ambassador who can be reached at mzam.rgohaka.riet