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News Analysis

Lebanon crisis enters new phase

AFP, Beirut
Lebanon's prolonged political crisis has entered a dangerous new phase, analysts warned on Thursday as Hezbollah's firebrand leader Hassan Nasrallah issued a defiant new challenge to the government and deadly clashes rocked Beirut.
"No more Mr Nice Guy. This a new phase," warned Hezbollah expert Amal Saad-Ghorayeb after Nasrallah accused the government of effectively declaring war on his powerful Shia Muslim movement and said it would use its weapons to defend itself.
Gunbattles erupted in Beirut late Thursday in scenes reminiscent of the 1975-1990 civil war, leaving two people dead, as residents stayed indoors fearful of a renewed sectarian conflict in the divided Middle East nation.
Nasrallah's remarks were "very explicit about Hezbollah's readiness to engage in a defensive war. This was a major escalation. There
is no room for conciliation here," said Saad-Ghorayeb.
"He is saying: 'If anyone touches us, our resistance, our supporters we are going to fight back'... I don't see what they could possibly strike a deal over at this point."
The Hezbollah-led opposition has been locked in a deepening political standoff with the Wes tern -backed government since November 2006, leaving the country without a president for more than five months.
Nasrallah's warnings came after the government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora launched a crackdown on Hezbollah activities, including a probe into a private communications network run by the group.
"The logjam has gotten much deeper... He was defiant but did not declare war." said the director of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, Oussama Safa.
The crisis in Lebanon is widely seen as an extension of the confrontation pitting the United States
and its Arab allies against Syria and Iran, which back Hezbollah.
The International Crisis Group's Patrick Haenni said he did not expect a full-blown civil conflict as he believed Hezbollah's priority is to avoid an all-out Sunni-Shia rift in multi-confessional Lebanon.
"The dilemma is you want to push the government as much as you can... but at the same time the only means you have now, as all the institutions are blocked, is the street," Haenni said.
"If you go to the street, you go to confessional politics." he added. "Confessional politics can be turned against you and turn into a sectarian split scenario that Hezbollah fears."
But Carnegie Middle East Centre director Paul Salem said Nasrallah's speech was "quite calm. It might help get the crisis away from fights in the neighbourhoods to more of a political standoff that requires mediation.
"The crisis is definitely open-
ended."
The latest clashes between the rival political factions erupted on Wednesday on the fringes of a general strike called by Lebanon’s main labour confederation to demand a tripling of the minimum wage.
But the political crisis has its roots in November 2006 when the opposition pulled its six ministers out of the cabinet in a bid to gain a greater voice in government.
Saad-Ghorayeb also warned of the economic fallout from the unrest, particularly the blocking of access to Lebanon's only international airport by pro-Hczbollali demonstrators.
He said the move was "not a symbolic act" and that continued closure would paralyse the economy and "could very well lead to the collapse of the government.”
The Lebanese army is deployed in force around Beirut, but has been ordered to stay on the sidelines and has not got involved in the fighting.