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MATTERS AROUND US

Changing Indo-Pakistan ties

Will the topsy-turvy relationship between two south Asian rivals continue to improve, or once again deteriorate, which has broadly been the hallmark of New Delhi-Islamabad ties?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury
A near sea-change has taken place in the political landscape of Pakistan following the parliamentary elections. All-powerful President Parvez Musharraf s supporters have been weakened, and his own position is also somewhat uncertain following the victory of his rivals in the polls.
The partners in the coalition government are all antiMusharraf, and the president's supporters are in the opposition in the national assembly. The coalition government is also prema-turely showing signs of discord on issues like bringing back the judges who were earlier dismissed by the president.
All these are the main issues of discussion in the post-election scenario in Pakistan. But another very interesting subject of discussions and curiosity, that has come to the fore following these polls, is the relations with archrival India in the wake of the changes in Pakistan.
Undeniably, Indo-Pakistan ties are a major issue of debate, not only in both the countries but also beyond. How is this relationship shaping up in the present situation? It is heartening to note that leaders of both countries recently vowed to not only maintain the current process of normalisation of ties but also advance them for mutual benefit.
Will the topsy-turvy relations between two south Asian rivals continue to improve, or once again deteriorate, which has broadly been the hallmark of New Delhi-Islamabad ties?
The answer will be in the affir-
mative since the process that began more than four years ago has not suffered any major setback. However, some ripples that run counter to the constructive trend can be witnessed from time to time in the positive ambience. This has led to some speculation whether the process will go on unhindered or face impediments.
Not long ago, both countries had complaints about each other's attitudes. When an agreement was signed between New Delhi and Washington on civilian nuclear cooperation, it caused some irritation in Pakistan. On the other hand, India felt that terrorist activities in the Kashmir region had not receded in the manner that New Delhi expected and, obviously, blamed Islamabad for this.
The India-United States military accord, and later the agreement on nuclear technology, were not taken gracefully in Pakistan. From the Indian point of view, Pakistan had failed to live up to the expectation in discouraging or stopping cross-border insurgency in the Kashmir area. Furthermore, certain comments from both sides were not seen as conducive to their efforts to furthering friendliness and, consequently, the future of the peace appeared little uncertain.
However, the present atmosphere is undoubtedly better. The uncertainty surrounding the ultimate fate of the Indo-US agreement and political developments in Pakistan have helped further improve the positive ambience.
During recent years, the peace process received a boost from the highest levels of the two countries. When Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan
Singh met on the sidelines of the Afro-Asian conference in Bandung, Indonesia, they vowed to take the good initiatives forward.
The Pakistan president was in the Indian capital later for the Indo-Pakistan cricket match, but the bilateral talks that he had with the Indian premier were seen as a “success," given the sensitivity that governs New Delhi-Islamabad ties. The two leaders agreed to give impetus to the difficult peace process and declared the trend as “irreversible,"a commitment that raised both optimism and skepticism. Broadly, the pledge was welcomed, since hostility and belligerence are the traditional characteristics of their bilateral relationship.
The happy developments between the perennially belligerent neighbours have become a matter of discussion in the international arena for the simple reason that their ties constitute an important factor for peace and stability in South Asia and, in a way, in the world. An optimism exists in many quarters that the two nuclear-powered inimical nations are now finding common ground to improve their badly strained ties.
The Saarc summit in Pakistan provided a badly needed dialogue at the level of the top leadership of the two countries on the sidelines of the conference, and the outcome of this contact had remarkably changed the nature of the New Delhi-Islamabad relationship. The last Saarc summit in April 2007 in New Delhi helped further develop the ties.
A glimmer of hope has also arisen that the two neighbours may be able to settle their prob-
lems through discussions. President Gen.Musharraf was upbeat that the irritants, including the main "Kashmir problem,” were not beyond resolution. When Musharraf visited India over six years ago, he did not miss the opportunity of having a glimpse of his ancestral house in old Delhi. Indian Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh hails from West Punjab, which is now in Pakistan.
The encouraging conditions notwithstanding, one cannot probably lose sight of the fact that the peace process is contingent upon settlement or understanding of the main bone of contention, which is obviously the Kashmir dispute. The two sides have diametrically opposite positions on the issue, but are showing readiness for flexibility. But how far this flexibility can go is the moot point. They have agreed to discuss it, but it is too complex a dispute, although not beyond settlement.
The Pakistan president has to take his people, and also a big chunk of the "Kashmiris," along with his policy on the subject vis-A-vis the peace process with India. Some Kashmiri outfits have said that Musharraf was seeking to compromise on the fundamentals of the problem. Realism is dawning on different circles that the dispute cannot be settled by military might and that negotiations are important.
In India, too, there seems to be increasing awareness that flexibility is required for resolving this contentious matter and, thereby, create a peaceful Indo-Pakistan relationship. The road towards eliminating the root cause of hostility is bumpy, but this is how difficult things arc accomplished
in international relations. While one cannot say that the Indo-Pakistan peace process is "irreversible,” hope can certainly be placed on the current efforts.
Some negative signs notwithstanding, the Indo-Pakistan peace process is unlikely to be affected much, unless unforeseen developments mar the atmosphere. Bilateral talks at different levels are moving. It is encouraging to note that their leaders are willing to ignore the discouraging signs and put them behind.
In the aftermath of the changes in Pakistan, it is worthwhile to note the indications emanating from Islamabad on relationship with India. Asif Ali Zardari, co-chairman of PPP, is the most powerful politician in Pakistan. He commented the other day that guns could not bring welfare to the people of India and Pakistan.
Former prime minister Newaz Sharif, the leader of the PML, which is the second biggest constituent of the ruling coalition, also echoed the same sentiment. It was during his time that the famous "Bus diplomacy” between the two countries was launched, with A.B. Vajpayee as prime minister of India.
But both Zardari and Newaz Sharif, as well as Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, are not oblivious to the fact that problems like “Kashmir" cannot be ignored by them. They are talking about peace while stressing on the need for resolution of the vexed issue. Indian Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh has also recently spoken about good ties with Pakistan. It is noteworthy that bilateral irritants are not standing in the way of normalisation of their relations.
This approach is commendable, since the overall political climate in South Asia is inseparably linked with the relationship between two key player of the regional spectrum India and Pakistan. Zaglul Ahmod Chowdhury is a senior journalist and analyst on International affairs