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Weekly Currency Roundup
April 2 7 April 30,2008
Local FX Market
Local inter bank FX market was tight throughout the week, and there was a high demand for US dollar. The BDT remained almost unchanged against die US dollar.
Money Market
Overnight money market eased this week. The range moved from 8.00-9.00 percent to8.00-10.00 percent.
International Markets
The euro slipped on Monday after a fall in German regional consumer prices which followed weak Ifo reading last week, fuelled speculation that the European Central Bank may cut interest rates later this year. The euro fell pulling away from a session high around $1.5680 hit earlier in the day after a surprising jump in a German consumer sentiment gauge. On Tuesday, the euro fell to a four week low versus the dollar, dented by soft European sentiment data and weak bank earnings results, while the greenback gained from a view that the US rate-cutting cycle may be near its end. French consumer confidence fell to its lowest since 1987 when the data series began, adding to a view that the euro zone economy isn't insulated from the problems pushing the US economy on the verge of recession. Moreover, Deutsche Bank made its first quarterly loss in five years as the cost of the global financial crisis mounted for Germany's biggest bank, leading it to reveal further write downs of 2.7 billion euros. On Wednesday, dollar was little changed against the euro ahead of Federal Reserve meeting where it is expected to cut interest rates followed by a pause in its aggressive rate-cutting cycle. The US currency was also poised for its biggest monthly gain against the yen since April 2004. At the same time the euro weakened after a German government report showed unemployment fell less than economists had forecast-leading some to expect a dilution of the European Central Bank's hawkish monetary policy stance.
Commodities
Gold was on a rise this week, as the rise in crude oil prices boosted the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. However on Tuesday gold declined as investors speculated the Federal Reserve may signal at a policy meeting this week that it's close to ending interest rate cuts, and crude oil's rally to a record stalled. The yellow metal fell below $870 an ounce, the lowest price in three months.
Crude oil rose to a record $119.93 a barrel on Monday, after BP Plc shut a North Sea Pipe Line and gun men attacked a police station in Bonny island, the site of Nigeria's largest oil and gas export terminals. BP closed the Forties Pipeline System, carrying 40 percent of the UK's oil output, after a strike at the Grangemouth refinery cut power supplies to the network that delivers 700,000 barrels daily. On Tuesday crude oil declined to $115.57 a barrel, the lowest in four weeks as BP Plc restarted the North sea oil pipeline. - Standard Chartered Bank