The government’s bid to drastically reduce the unbearable load shedding by adding 900 megawatts of power to the national grid in the next few months may be upset as Petrobangla is not yet ready to supply the gas needed to run these power plants, says a top power ministry source.
This means that the present power generation capacity of 4.000 MW may go up to 4,900 MW in the next few months but this might not cut load shedding which is currently hovering around 1.000 to 1,400 MW
"If we accept the World Bank finding that the nation loses two percent of the GDP (gross domestic product) due to power crisis, the government must immediately prioritise gas supply for power generation," said a highly placed source.
The gas crisis has been caused by declining gas production in the offshore Sangu field as well as inadequate transmission lines for its supply from large gas fields.
Petrouangla's affiliates which supply gas are presently rationing supply to power plants, fertiliser factories and some industrial and commercial consumers. Against a gas demand of 2,000 million cubic feet a day (mmefd), Petrobangla is currently supplying 1,773 mmefd. Though it can supply more, the existing pipeline network does not allow increase the supply where it is needed the most, sources said.
As a result, Power Development Board (PDB) is unable to generate around 640 MW to 700 MW power. The load shedding now is addition ally caused by technical glitches of some other plants. The PDB is currently producing around 3,600 MW power against an unofficially estimated demand of more than 5,000 MW.
The PDB says acute gas crisis has forced it to cut power production at Raozan plant by 240 MW, Ghorashal 220 MW, Sikalbaha 10 MW , Haripur 34 MW, Siddhirganj 90 MW. Mymensingh 77 MW and Ashuganj plant by 10 MW. The authorities are now even requesting more than 200 industries to limit use of gas.
"Presently, the PDB needs 840 million cubic feet per day (mmefd) gas to generate 4,028 MW power (most of which is gas fired). But Petrobangla and its affiliates can supply a maximum of 679 mmefd, " said a top official of the power ministry Wednesday.
But from early next month, the government expects to have some small rental power plants to begin operation. By June, more than a dozen such small plants are expected to add 594 MW power to the national grid. But it will need 127 mmefd additional gas supply. The power ministry is now concerned whether there will be adequate gas supply to make these ventures successful.
In addition, two public sector power plants-- Siddhirganj 220 MW ana Fenchuganj 90 MW-- are also expected to begin operation in the next few months. These will need anolher67 mmefd gas.
"The power sector alone needs 1,000 mmefd gas this year so that the country can produce around 4,900 MW power, and thus minimise load shedding and avoid loss of GDP," the source added. Other than gas, Bangladesh uses hydro, coal and oil fired power.
"Each mmefd gas produces four MW power. So, when Petrobangla is unable to provide us with 161 mmefd power, it amounts to not being able to generate 644 MW power," he added. "We don’t know what will happen when several small and rental power projects start operating one by one from next month."
Petrobangla on the other hand has to ensure gas supply to other sectors as well. Right now, gas supply to fertiliser factories is getting as much priority as that for power generation. The power ministry believes the highest priority should be given to power generation since the load shedding level has become unbearable, affecting national productivity. “From this month, farmers would not need fertilisers since it is harvesting time. So, we can decrease gas supply to fertiliser factories for now. Additionally, farmers won't need dedicated power for irrigation, and this can be diverted to other consumers," the official pointed out.
During the last irrigation season, the government provided 2.25 lakh high priority power connections to farmers. After April 15, power supply to these connections will not get high priority, and that will be diverted to cities and industrial areas.
"Load shedding is affecting people's lives and productivity. This month Petrobangla should have allocated at least 750 mmefd gas for maximum power generation," the official pointed out.
Gas Supply constraints
According to a Petrobangla official, due to lack of transmission pipelines, adequate gas cannot be supplied to Chittagong area. Besides, Petrobangla cannot supply adequate gas to tlie cluster of power plants in Ghorashal.
"These are two main areas where gas supply constraints will not go unless we take up urgent projects to enhance gas supply from the Titas field," said a Petrobangla official, referring to Pctrobangla's last year's proposal to build a 14 km 20 inch pipeline that could increase supply to 200 mmefd gas at a cost ofTk 40 crore to Tk 50 crore. This project can be implemented just in one winter.
A senior official of Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company Ltd (TGTDCL) said it is not true that gas crisis alone is responsible for 600 to 700 MW load shedding. "On some days, it may be true. But on many days, technical glitches are forcing some PDB plants to remain shut down," he noted.
The TGTDCL is responsible for supplying gas to a large number of power plants and it gives an advance notice to the PDB about the next month's gas supply forecast. "In March, we dedicated 720 mmefd gas to the PDB. It was possible because Karnaphuli Fertiliser Company (Kafco) was shut down for maintenance work. This month, Kafco is operating in full swing and we have to supply gas to it," he added.
Fertiliser and power sectors consume around 1,000 mmefd gas now and non-bulk or industrial, commercial, domestic etc sectors consume another 865 mmefd. To prioritise power production, the government Tuesday decided to reduce gas supply to non-bulk sector, specially to some industrial sectors like dyeing and re-rolling mills, through a rationing arrangement.
"There is no alternative to increasing gas production and supply for an immediate solution," said a Petrobangla official.
The government should follow the Power System Master Plan of 1995, where it was suggested that in case of gas crisis, the nation should opt for imported coal based power plants near the ports of Chittagong and Khulna for long-term solutions. Side by side, the government should emphasise offshore oil and gas exploration, the official added.