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ADP sees 6pc GDP growth this year

Inflation to rise to 9nc

UNB, Dhaka
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected Bangladesh's GDP to grow by six percent and inflation to rise to nine percent in the current fiscal year, amid concerns of risks that could derail the projections.
It also forecast that the GDP growth could reach 6.5 percent and the inflation down at eight percent in the next fiscal year.
The forecasts were made in the Asian Development Outlook 2008 (ADO), simultaneously released yesterday in Dhaka and many other countries.
"Greater efforts will be required to lift agriculture productivity to sustain food self-sufficiency in the face of increased threats from natural calamities intensified by climate change," ADB Country Director Hua Du told a press briefing at the ADB's Bangladesh Resident Mission
She said sustaining higher growth and reducing poverty in the period ahead would require, among others, large investment in physical infrastructure, especially power and transport, together with continued efforts in improving the quality of education and basic healthcare services.
Hua Du pointed out that natural disasters have worsened growth and inflation indicators, but said uncer-tainty among investors due to the ongoing anti-corruption drives has started to ease.
The GDP growth is forecast to reach 6.5 percent in 2008-09 due to improved external and domestic demand and a recovery in agriculture, sheadded.
The ADO assumed that the caretaker government would take measures to further boost business confidence and that substantial external assistance would be available to cushion the flood and cyclone effects on economic growth and inflation.
It also assumed that the authorities would pursue well-coordinated fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies with a focus on curbing inflation and raising revenues.
"A final assumption is that the government will at least partly rationalise fuel prices."
The report said the economic outlook considered several downside risks that could derail projections -- the main risk was political developments in the lead-up to the f;eneral elections scheduled to be icld by die end of 2008, and their outcome.
"In macroeconomic management, the major risk is rapidly growing infla -tion: failure to rein it in could seriously undermine macroeconomic and political stability,” it said, adding that the perennial vulnerability to natural disasters also presents a risk.
The report said the GDP growth must be raised to seven-eight percent for faster poverty reduction and job creation while climate change increasingly looms as a major dcvel-opmentalchallenge.
It said greater investment is needed in power generation, the Chittagong seaport needs to continue contracting out operations and management to the private sector, including those of the New Mooring container terminal
Formulation of an appropriate coal policy Is especially important so as to expedite decisions on some of the other foreign investment proposals worth US$ 11 billion in important sectors, it added.