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News Analysis

Endgame for Mugabe

The Independent, Harare
Whisper it quietly, but Zimbabwe may be witnessing the final days (if not hours) in office of the only leader it has ever known. While the people of this ruined country waited last night for their electoral voice to be heard, reports from high-level talks between aides of Robert Mugabe and the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai suggested they were edging closer to accomplishing the previously impossible.
After 28 years of seemingly unshakeable authority in which all opponents have been sidelined, exiled or killed the "old man" as Zimbabweans call him, was reported to be considering relinquishing power. Saturday's elections went so strongly against the ruling party, that it is understood he has been advised to quit now rather than face a humiliating second round against his hated rival, Tsvangirai.
Sources close to the talks said that an "exit package" was being negotiated that could see the 84-year-old retire or even, according to one scenario, leave the country. While an agreement was far from settled. Mr Mugabe was believed to be seeking immunity from prosecu -tion as well as guarantees relating to millions of pounds worth of assets held in a number of countries.
A US State Department official confirmed negotiations were under way, saying they followed indications that Mr Tsvangirai would secure a majority in the presidential election but fall short of the 51 per cent required to avoid a run-off.
However, both the ruling party and the opposition were at pains to quash the rumours. "Any speculation about deals and negotiations is speculation, because the results have not been announced," said Mr Tsvangirai in his first public appearance since Saturday’s vote "Let’s wait for (the electoral commission] to complete its work, then we can discuss the circumstances
that will affect thepeople."
And a junior minister in Mugabe's government said: "There is no need for a deal... there are no negotiations whatsoever.”
As speculation swirled, Zimbabwe's electoral commission continued its theatre of the absurd. The official results, released at a trickle, continued to show the ruling Zanu-PF party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) running neck-and-neck in terms of parliamentary seats. However, these results contradicted both the findings of independent election observers and the results amassed by opposition polling agents nationwide.
Three days after the poll, there had still been no official results concerning the presidential vote. A second round, which would have to be held within 21 days, appeared unlikely, after massive resources were poured into Saturday’s poll, much of it in the form of crude vote-buying by Zanu-PF
One scenario is that Mugabe would stand aside and allow an alternative candidate from Zanu-PF to contest a second round. But that also carries the risk that the opposition would unite and the angry populace would give an even more resounding "No" to Zanu-PF than they did four days ago. "There is no way that Mugabe wants a second round. He would lose badly and be humiliated," said a senior diplomat close to the election crisis. Mugabe himself ruled out a run-off before the weekend, saying there was no "second round in this boxing match".
Zimbabwe's two main cities remained calm, although riot police have been dispatched for nightly patrols, and roadblocks mounted outside all major towns. But Harare was awash with wild rumours. The wildest of those that "Comrade Bob" had already fled the country was quashed after he was spotted in the suburbs by foreign diplomats.