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Internal power struggle in the offing in Tehran
***The outcome of the elections has further consolidated the power of the conservatives in the country. There will be much speculation about its impact on President Ahmadinejad. It remains to be seen how supportive of the president the new parliament will be. Many analysts suggest that the flawed policy of the US towards Iran on its nuclear program has strenthened the conservatives. The Bush administration made a gigantic mistake when it rejected Iran's past president Khatemi's desire to have a dialogue with the US.***
IRAN held parliamentary elections on March 14. About 4,500 candidates ran for the 290 seats. Many voters in Tehran were reportedly perplexed at having to choose 30 candidates out of hundreds, and some arrived at the polling station with written lists.
Officials closely monitored the balloting, fearing that a low turnout would embarrass the country internationally and underscore the rising dissatisfaction over the government's handling of the economy, and were relieved because this time the voter turnout was 60% per- cent, much higher than it was in the last election (51%) in 2004.
After the voting, the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly said: "Your epic and
powerful presence overcame the enemy's tricks, and turned the enemy's high-profile psychological war aimed at encouraging a low turnout into a vain bubble."
Win for conservatives
Conservatives claimed victory by securing four times as many seats as the reformists in the parliament (Majlish)..
No doubt they will take it as an endorsement of their nuclear program and of Iran's assertive foreign policy.
It is good news for President Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is now well positioned for next year's presidential election. He is expected to tighten his grip in the country, with the support of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, who is constitutionally supposed to be above party politics.
The Iranian leadership portrayed the result as an act of popular defiance in the face of international sanctions over the country's nuclear program. Iran has recently cancelled all talks with the Group of 6 (five Security Council members plus Germany) headed by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana. Iran will now talk with the UN agency IAEA in Vienna on it's nuclear program.
The outcome of the election is bad for the Western governments that were hoping for the moderates to temper the assertive.
The possibility that Iran might suspend its enrichment of uranium, in line with UN Security
Council demands, is now negligible, Iranian political analysts said.
As expected, the EU presidency issued a statement on March 16th, expressing "its deep regret and disappointment that over a third of prospective candidates were prevented from standing in elections. As a result, the election was neither fair nor free."
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman dismissed the EU allegations on elections as "hasty, politically motivated, opportunistic, and unacceptable."
The result of the election has deepened the divide between Tehran and the West.
Power struggle among conservatives
The result has caused an internal
battle between political hardliners who support the populism of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and those who blame him for policies that have led to high inflation, unemployment, and fuel shortages.
Although conservatives have won the parliamentary elections, analysts believe that it has set up a new power game struggle within the conservative group.
In Iran, there are many shades of conservatives, such as "hardline conservatives," "pragmatic conservatives” and "reformist conservatives." Analysts say that the power struggle may revolve around these groups of conservatives.
It is widely believed that President Ahmadinejad leads the "hardline conservatives," while the former nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, who fell out with the president last January, secured an impressive victory in the holy city ofQom.
Ali Larijani blames the president for what he calls his overheated rhetoric against the international community and his inability to solve the country's financial problems despite a surge in oil prices. He complained that Ahmadinejad's public statements
often undercut his (Larijani’s) talks with Western officials on Iran's nuclear enrichment program.
Larijani's campaign against Ahmadinejad, however, is mainly concentrated on domestic financial issues; hard-liners are unified on most policies, including relations with Washington.
"The criticism of Ahmadinejad among the hard-liners started months ago, and this election is a portrait of that," said Nader Karimijori, a political analyst and editor of a conservative newspaper.
Larijani is expected to lead a powerful bloc of "pragmatic conservatives" in the parliament. Analysts expect that he might be appointed as speaker of the parliament. Some observers say that the position would be an important power base for Larijani to lauch a challenge against the incumbent president at next year's presidential election.
Another challenger could be the current mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Qalibaf, who heads the "reformists conservatives." His presidential ambition is no longer a secret. Like another for-mer mayor, President
Ahmadinejad, he will mount a challenge against the current incumbent.
Observers believe that the big winner is the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has secured a parliament more loyal to him that the previous one. And the internal battle within the conservatives may suit him.
It is widely reported in the Western press that Khamenei undermined President Rafsanjani's and President Khatemi's attempts to usher in a more pragmatic and liberal approach to statecraft. The conservative Guardian Council, an unelected body of clerics and jurists, systematically opposed any legislation that would permit relaxation of social mores and dress codes.
The conservative factions are believed to be beholden to the supreme leader as they have no independent power base or sufficient stature to challenge the supreme leader's prerogatives.
Conclusion
The outcome of the elections has further consolidated the power of the conservatives in the country. There will be much speculation about its impact on President
Ahmadinejad. It remains to be seen how supportive of the president the new parliament will be.
Many analysts suggest that the flawed policy of the US towards Iran on its nuclear program has strenthened the conservatives. The Bush administration made a gigantic mistake when it rejected Iran's past president Khatemi's desire to have a dialogue with the US.
One should not forget that Iran has emerged as a regional power in the region. Nothing seems to be in order in that region unless Iran supports and engages in it.
It is noted Iran had gone through many invasions by foreigners. It was invaded by Greeks. Arabs, Mongols, Turks, Afghans. British and Russians. The 1953 coup that removed its popular Prime Minister Mossadeq was attributed to the CIA. Iranians have overcome all these attacks and interferences. Moreover, Iran can claim 2,500 years of history, civilisation and culture. Iranians are conscious of the past, and have grown with an impressive cultural selfconsciousness.
Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN. Geneva