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External factors key to Musharraf future

The telegraph, now Mht
In Islamabad's cloak-and-dagger politics, it is often hard to separate apparent fact from inspired fiction.
Speculation over President Pervez Musharrafs exit began eddying in the capital's power circles soon after last week's electoral verdict flew in his face, but perhaps the safest thing to say about his future today is that it'sanybody'sguess.
Eventually, external factors may pull more weight than the decisive domestic rebuff he has been hander!
The US. a critical player in Pakistan's internal affairs, still considers President Musharraf essential to its war on terror and remains averse to his abrupt departure from the scene.
“The Americans respect the popular verdict but that does not necessarily mean they want Musharraf gone." a former IS1 chief told The "telegraph in Islamabad last week
“To them the jihadi threat is more important and they will want to ensure minimum instability in the ruling setup, they would be happiest if the new government can work with Musharraf."
It was no happenstance that the PPP's Asif All Zardari sought a meeting with US ambassador Anne Patterson even before he began coalition talks with other parties as head ot the single-largest group in the new National Assembly.
There is considerable street and political pressure on the PPP to force President Musharraf to quit or to impeach him. And the PPP-ANP-
Nawaz Sharif alliance can perhaps even muster the required numbers two-thirda of the lower house to launch impeachment proceedings.
But that has not tempted Zardari into confrontation, analysts believe a lot of Zardari's reluctance to take on President Musharraf right away may have to do with American counsel.
The elections and the unfolding dynamics of popular politics have little bearing on Pakistan's grim security scenario, experts believe. Yesterday's fedayeen attack in Rawalpindi has only underlined fears that jihadi terror is alive and able to strike far beyond its strongholds in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP).
Consequently, the Americans arc pitching for continuity as far as their
anti-terror objectives arc concerned. "Even though he gave up the uniform a while ago, President Musharraf enjoys great leverage with the army and intelligence agencies," one security analyst said.
"The way the Pakistani establish ment is structured, that may remain the case even after a popular Prime Minister has taken office."
Ue emphasised die vice-grip of the army-intelligence complex on security matters in Pakistan and said: “That is why the Americans continue to back Musharraf even as they praise the return of democracy, they can be mutually exclusive diings in Pakistan."
It may well be that there comes a stage when the unpopular President becomes dispensable to the American scheme as well, but that
will require time and confidence building with a new set that can be trusted with carrying out American objectives.
"The new government Is yet to take office and nobody's quite sure how stable the coalition will be. On die other hand, army chief General (Ashfaq) Kayani still appears to be loyal to President Musharraf, he has not created an independent identity for himself yet
“The Americans will want to be assured he (General Kayani) or somebody else can be relied upon before diey ditch the President." an informed source in the Pakistani foreign office said.
Of particular concern to the Americans at die moment is the plunging morale of the Pakistani army, which has taken a beating in
Waziristan along the Afghan border, and in Baluchistan.
Pakistani forces have not only failed to get the upper hand In the low-intensity war with jihadi militias, they have also taken heavy losses more than a thousand soldiers have been killed over the last two years and, alarmingly for the army, hundreds have crossed over with their arms and Joined jihadi ranks.
"The way things are," said Ahmed Rashid, an expert on the Taliban and al Qaida, "the main task of the generals is not to wage war on the jihadis, it is to bolster the morale of their own troops.
"It is a crisis much bigger than any facing Pakistan, surely bigger than the power struggle in Islamabad."