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Modernising agriculture

Dr. Quazi Shahabuddin
ONE of the dominant features of Bangladesh economy is its structural change with a declining share of agriculture in GDP over the last three decades and a half. Despite such a decline, the economy is still predominantly agrarian. The sector still provides about 60 percent of the country's labour force. If only rural areas are considered, the percentage of labour force dependent on agriculture will be even larger. Moreover, agriculture production provide critical linkages for development of the rest of the economy. The performance of agriculture thus has important bearing on employment generation, food security and poverty alleviation in the country. In other words, while the declining share of agriculture in national income is a natural process, the development priorities still need to recognize the primacy of agricultural growth in providing food and income security to rural households in Bangladesh.
Growth performance Despite many problems and constraints, a quiet agricultural revolution has taken place which is still evolving in response to natural calamities, socio-political change, population growth, urbanization, new technology’ in agriculture and new opportunities in rural non-agriculture sector, commercialization, changes in macro as well as sectoral policy reforms including market and trade liberalization and substantial reduction in public sector intervention in agriculture. From largely a peasant-based subsistence activity, agricultural today is more of a commercial activity than ever before. Agriculture grew at a faster rate (3.6%) than the growth of population (1.4%) during the 1996-2006 period
(Table 1). However, although both GDP and population displayed steady upward and downward growth (rends, respectively, agriculture exhibited fluctuating growth over the same period. Subsector growth performance indicates diversification in favour of fisheries the share of fisheries in agricultural GDP increased from 15% in 1990 to 22% in 2006. Growth of crop sector has been more unstable than growth of other sub-sectors in agriculture.
Technological change Technological change greatly influenced the growth performance of Bangladesh agriculture, specially the crop sector. From a relatively stagnant sector in the pre-Green Revolution period. Bangladesh agriculture emerged as a dynamic sector in the Green Revolution
period. Bangladesh has made significant progress in foodgrain production, particularly in rice production since independence. Total foodgrain (rice and wheat) production more than doubled since 1971, increasing from around 10 million tons in early 1970s to 25 million tons by late 1990s and further to nearly 29 million tons in 2006. This phenomenal increase can largely be attributed to two factors: first, substitution of local varieties of rice by high yielding varieties (HYVs) during the three crop season aus, aman and boro, and second, increase in acreage under boro rice which has higher yield compared with ausand aman.
The trend growth rate in
rice production during the post-independence period is estimated at 2.3 per cent, which is almost entirely attributable to growth in rice yield (2.2 percent) due to dissemination of HYV tech-nology. In other words, this increase in rice yield is due to reallocation of land, as mentioned above, from local to HYVs of rice (especially boro rice) rather than improvement in variety-specific yields. The gain in terms of yield improvement has been small relative to its potential for both local and IIYV of rice, which has been estimated to be only 0.85 per cent and 0.17 percent respectively. Ibis reflects two major agro-economic constraints. First, intensification of rice monoculture is detrimental to soil fertility and require crop diversification. Second, rapid expansion of area leads to
cultivation of HYVs in relatively less suitable lands. The regional growth pattern also indicates unsustainability of high growth rate due to exhaustion of easy sources of irrigation and agronomic constraints.
The long-term trend of rice production shows that the dominant factor in growth is rice yield, stimulated by high yielding varieties, fertilizer and irrigation technology. Investment in research was small, yet there was technological progress, as evidenced by release of 43 HYV rice varieties by BRRI and 228 high yielding varieties of various crops by BARI. Extension also played a role although the much-discussed T and V system collapsed. HYV occupied
60 per cent of area shown in the late 1990s compared with only 13 per cent in the mid-1970s. Over (he same period, fertilizer use increased from 48 kg per hectare to 190 kg per hectare and the proportion of irrigated area under rice increased from 12 per cent to 30 per cent. Fertilizer use was very widespread across all groups of farmers. According to 1996 Agricultural Census, 83 per cent of farm holdings applied fertilizer involving 7) per cent of gross cropped area. Irrigation development was a major factor behind spread of HYV and consequent increase in yield. From an initial focus on surface water development, emphasis of irrigation shifted to development of groundwater 70 per cent of total irrigation development largely due to advent of shallow tube wells promoted by market liberalization policies. Other concurrent developments include increasing mechanization of agricultural operation, including power tillers for cultivation, pumps for irrigation and threshers for converting paddy into rice. In some regions use of power tillers reached 60 per cent of the total area cultivated, from 28 per cent reported in 1996 Agricultural Census, prompted by shortage in drought power in the country.
Although changes in yield are often used to measure crop productivity, this is a partial indicator since land productivity can be improved by costly investments that may not be fully compensated by increases in yield. The total factor productivity (TFP) provides a better indicator for changes in productivity. In Bangladesh, the real price of rice has shown a long term declining trend. But the growth in production of rice, in the face of (his declining real price, has been sustained largely due to sustained improvement in total factor
productivity. In Bangladesh, further downward adjustment in rice prices are needed in order to remain competitive with other rice producing countries in the world market. Increasing rice produc tion thus represents a challenging task for further technical progress through research and extension.
Growth in agriculture in terms of HYV yield has been showing signs of slowing down in recent years. Seedfertilizer-irrigation technology which phenomenally increased agricultural production in the 1980s and 1990s resulted in decline of soil fertility due to imbalanced use of chemical fertilizers, depletion of groundwater, high incidence of pests and salinity as well as arsenic hazards that led to
environmental degradation. At the sametime, cultivable land has been shrinking and agriculture is being pushed into marginal and ecologically vulnerable areas due to population growth, rapid urbanization, growth of small industries, expansion of infrastructure etc. Bangladesh agriculture today faces new challenges not only because of changes that are internal to the country but also because of changes in the global environment: climate change, globalization and changes in regional trade regime. Agriculture is no more a mere domestic affair, it is a commercially competitive sector exposed to global market.
Emerging challenges The growth in land productivity in rice cultivation has
slowed down considerably due to technological progress reaching its limit in the irri-gated ecosystem and nonavailability of suitable technologies for the unfavourable rainfed environments. This development raises concern regarding the country’s ability to maintain the food-population balance in the coming years. Rice research must deal with a number of difficult problems to meet this challenges: raising the yield ceilings of the available rice varieties; protecting the past yield gains in the irrigated ecosystem; and using biotechnology to develop high yielding varieties for the rainfed system that are tolerant to drought, submergence and problem soils. The speed and extent of meeting these challenges depends on the level of resources that can be mobilized to support crop improvement research in the public sector.
Under the existing technology'. there are several specific challenges, which have to be dealt with as the country strives to sustain a high rate of GDP growth over the longer term with agricultural sector making its due contribution. In case of seed, the farmers are concerned with timely' availability of quality seed in adequate quantity at a reasonable price. This is easier said than done when the seed sector has been largely privatized. In this context, one has to deal with questions related to the relative role of public versus private sector in seed production, processing, storage and distribution.
In case of fertilizer also, the farmer is concerned with timely availability of fertilizer in adequate quantity at reasonable price. Price is a major issue linked to unbalanced use of fertilizers, which is not only adversely affecting production, but also causing serious conservation problem. Other problems include quality of fertilizer, price fluctuation due to international price changes, unethical practices of private dealers, anomalies in the fertilizer distribution, buffer stock, government import and
others. Each one of these issues deserve close attention by the policy makers in order to ensure continued smooth functioning of the fertilizer market.
Irrigation, specially ground water based irrigation has expanded rapidly over the past three decades. Market liberalization has helped this process. The emerging challenges are water use efficiency, water quality, surface water management, conjunctive water use, technology shift in water management and monitoring of water quality. No less important is energy supply for irrigation, electricity and diesel. Uninterrupted supply of electricity and timely availability of diesel in adequate quantity at a reasonable price are two major concerns of farmers. Access to credit to purchase irrigation equipment is another major issue. Also, a new and innovative approach is required to improve on-farm water management
Mechanisation of agricultural operations is on the rise prompted by labour scarcity, drudgery' of agricultural work, market liberalization and land use efficiency. Key challenges for the future are efficient use of machinery', training, vocational education, changes in tax/tariff policy to encourage domestic
production of agricultural implements, incentive to farmers in terms of fiscal/price support and access to credit, improved servicing and technology development.
The current land ownership pattern and tenurial system has given rise to many questions regarding economic size of land holding, problem of fragmentation, land as collateral for access to credit, adoption of new technology, distribution of benefits from adoption of new technology, commercialization and others. A land market has not yet fully developed although (here are signs that the country is moving that way. Application of labour, specially family labour, is no longer a unilateral decision given alternative use of labour in non-agricultural activities in rural areas. For many families, agriculture has become a partial sourceofincome. In this evolving scenario, it will probably be desirable and more productive to focus on land use planning on the basis of agro-ecological zone, soil degradation, loss of land to non-agriculture and other uses, and land administration.
Development of marketing chain is the key to commercial agriculture. This is the weakest aspect of Bangladesh agriculture. There are many challenges, the
most critical are infrastructure (e.g. feeder roads, markets, cold storage), processing, packaging, transport and market delivery, value chain linkages and management and food safety. Moreover, both farmers and traders need assistance to manage market related risks. Grain banks, crop insurance, infrastructure, and modem processing, among others, are important issues requiring urgent attention.
Perhaps the greatest challenge for the future lies in making agricultural research and extension more clients oriented and demand driven. The agricultural research system has been suffering from inertia due to critical institutional, management and funding problems. The research institutes are not geared to face the challenges of the Twenty-first century. Given the backdrop of Bangladesh agriculture and its competitive strength, research efforts of the future should focus on land, labour and water saving technologies, as well as product development and quality improvement. In this context, the role that biotechnology can play in meeting the challenges of food security, without compromising on food safety merit seri-ousconsideration. I inally,extension has to make breakthrough in
disseminating new technology' and information in terms of bottom up service delivery' and promotion of community based systems.
Conclusion
Bangladesh is likely to be a linear urban sprawl with agriculture being a hinterland of this urban conglomerate. Rural economy itself would be much more diversified and linkages forward and backward would bring rural Bangladesh closer to urban Bangladesh. Agriculture will be transforming itself, in the process of its modernization, from subsistence to more commercial activity driven by considerations of food as well as livelihood security, economic growth, employment generation, poverty alleviation, risk management and natural resources conservation. Ln the process of its modernization, agriculture will undergo further structural transformation consistent with the changing nature of the economy, specially composition of its labour force, pattern of consumer demand and emerging regional as well as global trade environment.
Dr. Quazi Shahabuddin is Director General, BIDS.
***Agriculture will be transforming itself in the process of its modernisation, from subsistence to more commercial activity driven by considerations of food as well as livelihood security, economic growth, employment generation, poverty alleviation, risk management and natural resources conservation.***