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The praful bidwai column

Between ambition and reality

Mr Advani's gambit was linked to his own bid to become the BJP's nominee for the prime minister's post should the National Democratic Alliance win the next national election. He has long nursed this ambition. Mr. Vajpayee has repeatedly thwarted him.

Praful Bidwai writes from New Delhi
THE shrewdest way of defeating your opponent, they say, is to flatter him to death. Mr. LK Advani did exactly that to his old-time friend-senior Atal Behari Vajpayee by demanding that he be awarded the Bharat Ratna, India's highest civilian honour.
Mr. Advani nearly succeeded in sending Mr. Vajpayee packing out of his stewardship of the Bharatiya Janata Party by writing: "Sadly, there have been instances when the award was not given even when such illustrious Indians existed in our midst or when their names were suggested for posthumous recognition."
Mr Advani's gambit was linked to his own bid to become the BJP's nominee for the prime minister's post should the National Democratic Alliance win the next national election. He has long nursed this ambition. Mr. Vajpayee has repeatedly thwarted him.
Mr. Vajpayee was the NDA's
unquestioned numero uno, without a successor. Mr. Advani could rise in importance -- but only at Mr. Vajpayee's pleasure. This was a paternalistic relationship typical of the RSS principle" of a single leader's .ibsolute rule.
Mr. Vajpayee appointed Mr. Advani deputy PM in 2002, but only under pressure. In 2003, Advani acolyte and party president Venkaiah Naidu famously described Mr. Advani as Loh Purush (Iron Man) and Mr Vajpayee merely as Vikas Purush (Development Man), projecting them together as the BJP's "twin mascots."
This was an attempted palace coup during Mr. Vajpayee's absence from India. Mr. Vajpayee reacted with a blackmailing threat. He said Mr. Advani "would lead the party in the next election." Mr Naidu apologised abjectly.
This time around, Mr. Vajpayee yielded but only after much persuading by RSS secretary Mohan Bhagwat. A major consideration was his extremely poor health. Yet, he remains the BJP's most acceptable public
face.
Mr. Advani is in a hurry to become prime minister. That's why he put the BJP into election mode in December by setting up an "informal group" of camp-followers. including Sushma Swaraj. Arun Shourie, Arun Jaitley, and Venkaiah Naidu.
Mr. Advani was also eager to get anointed as the NDA's candidate as PM at its January 22 meeting, held after the BJP's moraleboosting victories in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh.
This was attended by the presidents of all NDA constituentparties barring the Trinamool Congress, and the chief ministers of all the 9 Alliance-ruled states. It denounced "the failed... corrupt and ... divided ... United Progressive Alliance" and claimed to become an alternative.
However, the NDA is in too much of a hurry. The UPA government isn't about to collapse. The Left parties, which threatened to withdraw support if the UPA pushed the India-US nuclear deal, have changed their stance partly because of the Nandigram andTaslima Nasreen
episodes. The UPA is averse to an earlyelection.
True, the Left parties will increasingly demarcate themselves from the UPA ahead of the election, in which they'll directly fight the Congress in the three states in which they rule. But that might not produce an early rupture.
The NDA's Advani gamble is risky. He's no substitute for Mr. Vajpayee. Mr. Advani is an apparatchik (organisation man) and deal-fixer. But he's no strategist. He has started issuing statements on international issues, but he's out of his depth on these.
Mr. Advani's intellectual horizon is extremely narrow. His all-time favourite book is the trashy How to Win Friends and Influence People.
He's not an orator or mass leader. In his recent election meetings in Gujarat, he had to be content with audiences as small as 30-strong. while Mr Narendra Modi drew thousands-strong crowds, as did Ms. Sonia Gandhi.
Compared to the 30 percentplus approval ratings for Ms. Gandhi and Mr. Vajpayee in
various opinion polls, Mr Advani's highest score is 9 percent.
Four years ago, Mr Advani's elevation to Mr. Vajpayee's level wasn't acceptable to several NDA constituents, including Telugu Desam, Trinamool Congress and even the Shiv Sena.
Today, the NDA allies are wrongly bowing before the BJP's internal choice. This is markedly different from their attitude towards the Vajpayee leadership, which was never determined by the BJP's organisational calculations, but shaped by his (misleading) image as "the right man in the wrong party."
Mr. Vajpayee has never been an Advani-style apparatchik. Mr. Advani is happiest controlling the party or going around in his rath whipping up base passions.
Mr. Advani temporarily lost the RSS’s confidence - and control over the BJP - because of his remarks praising Jinnah. But he's back in favour, and in greater command of the BJP than its Uttar Pradesh-centric lightweight president, Rajnath Singh.
The BJP has reason to feel pleased at the Gujarat results. The NDA doesn't. After all, the Janata Dal (United), led by the NDA's best-performing chief minister -- Bihar's Nitish Kumar -- contested the Gujarat elections independently of the BJP.
The BJP retains its sullied image as an intolerant, sectarian
party, which uses communal violence for political mobilisation and cannot provide Constitutional governance. Bilkis Bano had to go out of Gujarat to get even a modicum of justice.
Compared to 2004, the NDA isn't better placed than the UPA in the overall balance of forces. It's making an overture to Ms. Jayalalitha through Mr. Narendra Modi, of all people.
But it has lost a major ally in the Telugu Desam and will lose the Trinamool if that party allies with the Congress in West Bengal.
India's political situation is less bipolar than it was in 2004. The regional parties have come together as a bloc. The Bahujan Samaj Party has emerged a major force in UP and is making inroads elsewhere.
Besides, there's a distinct possibility that the Samajwadi Party’s hostile relationship with the Congress will change because both feel threatened by the BSP.
The NDA faces the burden of incumbency in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where elections are due soon. It's unclear if the BJP can retain power there, and highly unlikely that it can recoup its big losses in UP.
In this uncertain situation, betting on Mr Advani may prove a costly gamble for the NDA.
Praful Biflwa is an em:nent Indian cokmvst