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Peace and security in the 21st century: Possible responses

Barrister Harun ur Rashid
Although it is true to say that eruption of armed conflict among world's major powers is unlikely, serious differences persist on the emer gence of the new world order of the 21st century.
The armed conflict is less likely largely because of three factors: (a) the degree of interdependence among nations has increased not only in trade and investment but also in the area of global communi cation, (b) economic well-being of people has been the dominant theme in the politics of all major nations and (c) war is simply not a rational way of advancing national objective as has been experienced by the continuing Iraqi war.
The differences among major powers as often manifested at the meetings of the UN Security Council on global and regional issues (Kosovo and Iran's nuclear programme) has created a much more fluid situation for many small and middle size states. Under the current environment, there is now more room for powerful states to manoeuvre and some are bound to do so.
Some of the emerging economic powers (China and India) have yet to acquire military profiles commensurate with their wealth and the process of adjustment certainly has ample potential to generate tensions.
Should tensions escalate into conflict, the unhappy reality is that proliferation of more sophisticated conventional weapons and of the capacity to develop weapons of mass destruction (chemical, biological and nuclear weapons) makes any prospect of major regional conflict an alarming one for the world as a whole.
Another factor of concern has
emerged in developing countries. Il is the resurgence of ethnonationalism, often taking a violent form. Some ethnic groups have been prepared to pursue their claims for self-determination within the framework of existing statestreating them essentially as claims for minority human rights protectionbut many others have made clear that they will be satisfied by nothing less than their nations becoming states. The proliferating availability of weaponry of every degree of sophistication has provided a new edge to these concerns.
Overall, while there may not be armed conflicts among major powers, a wide array of security problems has become all too apparent across the globe. Many of them pose security threats to all states.
New definition of security problems
Security problems do not arise from only external factors. It is now generally accepted that security is multi-dimensional in character: that in addition to military threats, the state's security can be threatened by internal problems. For example the Soviet Union did not collapse due to external invasion but because of internal chaos released by the doctrines of glasnost (openness) and perestroika (reform) introduced by Gorbachev in 1985.
In South Asia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Maldives suffer from security problems because of lack of domestic cohesion and harmony.
States, acting to protect their security as they see it, may in the process cause or accentuate security problerris for international community.
Failed or Fragile States
Since the end of the Cold War, failed or fragile states have arguably become the single most important problem for international order.
It has been seen In many of such failed or fragile states extremist elements exist and promote their distorted version of ideology through terrorism. These states often are sources of many of the world's most serious problems, from poverty to drugs to AIDS.
Failed or fragile states are those that suffer from poor governance and its capabilities are weak. Often their legitimacy of governments is questioned. Instability is largely caused by lack of democracy, and pluralism or meaningful popular political participation.
Lack of state capacity in countries has come to haunt the developed world much more directly. State collapse or weakness stretching from the Balkans through Caucasus, the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia, had created major humanitarian crisis
Failed or fragile states undermine sovereignty because the problems that such states generate for themselves and for others vastly increase the likelihood that some powerful states will be tempted to intervene in their affairs against their wishes to forcibly fix the problem.
Emerging threats
'Emerging threats' may be described as developments, either within countries or between countries, which do not in themselves yet involve a dispute, armed conflict but may be seen as having the potential to become so.
Such developments within countries may include, for example, the accumulation of large arsenals of sophisticated conven-
tional weapons, the acquisition of capacity to build weapons of mass destruction, unrestrained population growth combined with environmental degradation, emerging food shortages, an increasing pattern of human rights abuses, bad governance, and the increasingly strident voices of grievances and aspirations of people.
Internal conflicts are made more complex and lethal by modern technology, communications and money transfers. It is also complicated in particular by the proliferation of cheap, highly destructive small arms. Populations are vulnerable to manipulation, exploitation and abuse by unscrupulous extremist elements.
Security crisis for international community
Often tensions or unrest affect international community. When a region is destabilized, whole world is affected directly or indirectly. And thus a security crisis arises.
The security crisis is meant to convey that the problem, directly or potentially threatens international peace and security. The absence of clear and agreed definitions in this area is a reflection of a reality that there is much continuing disagreement as to whether there arc any 'internal' situations that call for international action.
There is also the larger question of the changing nature of threats in tire modern world, the threats from non-state actors who are responsible for mass terror across the world.
The reality is when international institutions such as the UN cannot cope with today's real threat, powerful states will try to do themselves, either unilaterally or in company with like-minded allies. Some powerful states justify that if
the existing framework of laws and rules is defective, pre-emptive or preventive strike is justified.
Possible responses
Many security experts suggest that there are four distinct categories of possible responses to international security threats. They are as follows:
(a) Peacebuilding
(b) Peace maintenance
(c) Peace restoration
(d) Peace enforcement
Peace building strategies
Peace building are a set of strategies which aim to ensure disputes, armed conflicts and other major crisis do not arise in the first place or if they do arise they do not subsequently recur. Peace building
has two dimensions: Pre-conflict and post-conflict peace building. The former refers to economic, social and political measures which can help states deal with emerging threats. Post-conflict peace building is about action taken after a crisis or a conflict in order to help ensure there is no recurrence of the problem.
Peace maintenance strategies
Peace maintenance strategies are those designed to resolve or contain emerging threats and prevent them from escalating into armed conflict. These strategies include (a) preventive diplomacy, (b) preventive deployment of security forces.
Peace restoration strategies
Peace restoration strategies are those applicable after it crossed the threshold of armed hostilities. ’IWo basic kinds of response are addressed here peace making and peacekeeping.
Peace making efforts will usually be aimed at the immediate goals of cessation of hostilities. Peace keeping presumes cooperation between parties and is aimed to keep peace.
Peace enforcement strategies
Peace enforcement strategies include sanctions and use of force in accordance with the UN Charter. The strategies are those described
in the Chapter VII of the UN Charter and fall into two broad categories: non-military enforcement measures (sanctions) or military enforcement measures.
Conclusion
One of the central themes that appear to emerge is the need for much greater attention to be paid by the international community to anticipating and preventing crises or disputes rather than reacting after the event Furthermore the response should be graduated with softer options exhausted before harder ones are applied. Finally the responses should ideally be timely, effective, affordable and consistent.
Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Genera