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Using technology to estimate the damage to rice

A.M. Choudhury
Bangladesh space Research and Remote Sensing Organisation (Sparrso) estimated the amount of production of amon and boro rice using satellite technology during the nineties, and the government, to keep the price of rice stable, used this informa-
It is often said that Bangladesh is a poor nation and does not have access to technology. Well, this is not true. In this age of information proliferation, you can have access to information at affordable cost. Does anybody in the government or society ask what is Sparrso doing?
It is known that Bangladesh does not have a satellite of its own, but satellites are devices that pass over all the countries, irrespective of political boundaries, and gather information as programed. The satellite owning countries have a liberal attitude in that they permit any country to gather regional data by establishing a suitable ground station, excepting, of course, very high-resolution data pertaining to national security.
The unclassified satellites include weather and resource satellites. Sparrso established a very high-resolution ground station under a US-AID assisted project with technical support from Nasa during the nineteen eighties. The name of the project was Agro-Climatic Environmental Monitoring Project (ACEMP), of which this author was the project director.
It may be mentioned that the author was awarded Nasa Group Achievement Award for successful completion of the project. Under the project, Sparrso used to monitor the weather, including the deadly tropical cyclones, and also
make very reliable estimates of amon and boro crops. The US Noaa satellite was used for this purpose. Bangladesh has the advantage that its area is small and mostly flat, and the whole country comes in one frame of the image and can be analysed in a matter of hours. Whereas, in the case of India or US, hundreds of frames need to be analysed, and it may take months to get the result.
All objects like water, vegetation, soil etc. radiate electromagnetic energy and receive radiation from their surroundings. The electromagnetic energy radiated by a body can be detected by means of suitable detectors called sensors, and is called the spectral "signature" of the body.
Bangladesh crop signature was standardised by Sparrso in a project involving scientists from agriculture institutions like Bare, Bari, BRRI, SRDI etc. It is signifi-
cant that Sparrso estimation is done before, or at the time of, harvest, whereas the BBS report comes months later. Hence, prompt action can be taken, using results from satellite technology.
Bangladesh took advantage of this situation, and I shall cite only two examples in this regard. In 1997, there was a drought in the country, and I noticed that price of rice had started increasing (as happened this year) during the harvest.
I looked at the Noaa satellite imagery, which showed that the harvest was less than normal. We sent some ten to twenty teams of scientists to designated spots in the country to verify the results, and I also participated in the survey of some areas. The farmers reported that there was no rain during the flowering stage of the crops and, as a result, there had not been proper grain formation; consequently, the yield had been less, especially in highlands where there were no facilities for irrigation.
We estimated that the loss could be around 2 million tons. I at once reported the result to the agriculture minister. My estimation was eventually accepted, though there was some hesitation initially. The minister
announced in the press that there was a shortfall of two million tons of rice, which would be procured immediately. The increase in the price of rice in the market stopped thereafter.
Another example is the disastrous flood of 1998. The author had the distinction of predicting the flood a month in advance. The flood lasted two and a half months, extending up to September, and there was hardly much scope for re-plantation. There was large-scale damage to amon crops. This time, we estimated crop loss to the tune of 4.5 million tons. This was given to the press, and also in the government website.
The BBC had forecast that two million people would die in Bangladesh as a result of this dangerous flood. A donor's meeting was called, to which I was also invited. Usually, a person of my position is not invited to such a meeting. But as my name had come in the press, I was invited. I told the meeting, which was also attended by government representatives, that 4.5 millions tons of rice had to be transported to Bangladesh immediately by air, by sea and land to save the people from starvation. Actually, some 5 million tons of rice were pro-
cured. Nobody died of starvation and there was no price increase.
Thus, the bottom line is that_ the shortfall has to be-correctly estimated, and the needed quantity has to be procured in time, then there will not be any price rise. The demand has to meet the supply, as proclaimed by the economist guru Adam Smith. If the Bangladesh people consume 20 million tons of rice a year, and if there is a shortfall of say 2 million tons, and if there is no procurement, people either starve or eat less; which is reflected in the price rise. 7
The matter is as simple as that.
It is heartening that the present government has taken this problem seriously, and Sparrso technology can be used to estimate the exact loss of crops so that the necessary amount could be procured in the least possible time. As a matter of fact, the updating of Sparrso equipment was done with the assistance of the Ministry of Food, and there is a memorandum of understanding between Sparrso and the Ministry of Food for making crop estimation and supplying the same to the latter.
Dr. A.M. Choudhury is former Chairman, SPARRSO.