THE terrifying Us agenda of “regime change and democracy” for New Middle East is the natural fallout of its desire to control the energy resources of the region. Ever since the collapse of the soviet Union and the emergence of the United states as the world's sole superpower, wars, violence, and mass killings have thus proliferated to the extent that the world is now suffering from a condition of near anarchy, and nowhere more so than in the Greater Middle East. Much of the problem can be traced to America's unilateralism under the Presidency of George W. Bush. it means that over the past six years the United states has been able to do what it pleases without restraint -- to invade, torture, kill and destroy, ignoring international laws and conventions. With the collapse of Us led wars in Middle East, spoiling the Us image as a great super power eager to lead the world on democratic and enlightened path, Russia further seeks to reassert its influence in the region with positive gestures toward West Asia as well as slamming of Us aggressive foreign policy that is increasingly endangering the world.
The Arabs, like other Muslims, are profoundly worried by the way the United states has lost its mind after 9/11, embarking on a worldwide campaign against enemies, real and imaginary. Putin's Middle East tour of saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan in February, making the historic first ever visit to saudi Arabia by a Russian head of state, attests Moscow's proactive intent for the region.
Even as the UsA, that has maintained the "identical views" with israel over world issues, particularly the Middle East crises, is intolerably troubled in Gulf waters, Russia has come out to soothe the wounded pride of the Arabs caused by the war strategies of the Us-led forces. President Putin reiterated his proposal made during his first ever visit to israel and Egypt in 2005 to hold an international conference on the Middle East peace process in Moscow later this year and the members of the Middle East "quartet" -the UsA, the UN and the EU as well as "all the states concerned" would be invited to attend the conference.
Putin made a historical, confrontational speech in the presence of,
among others, Us Defense secretary Robert Gates, against American foreign policy at a prestigious European security conference in Munich, accusing Washington of unilateralism. Putin states that the Bush administration has undermined the UN, made a dangerous mess in the Gulf, and threatens to ignite a strategic arms race by modernizing the Us nuclear arsenal and planning to deploy ballistic missile defense systems (BMD) in Poland and the Czech Republic. Moscow resented the NATO expansion to include East European nations, excluding Russia, which sees itself primarily as European rather than Asian nation.
Russia does not have direct boarders with West Asia, but buffer zones created by the former soviet republics and sea-lake waters connect them. Kremlin's resolve to regain its "legitimate" control over the former soviet republics, baring a couple of Central Asian states and Belarus, has not materialized as yet. On the contrary, some of them like Georgia and Ukraine have drifted to the Western side. Moscow's efforts to control them all using energy diplomacy have not favored Kremlin significantly. Moscow forecasts that once relations with Middle East are strengthened, the Central Asia and other regions around Russia would become friendly and non-threatening, if not beneficial, to Moscow.
The Russian President is determined to transform Russia 's ColdWar image as a regional instigator and arms proliferator into one of a peacemaker and stabilizer. Focused on balanced relations across the globe, Russian diplomacy moves ahead to consolidate its role in the Middle East, too. The Kremlin sees the Middle East as the most disturbed region of the globe today and the UsA is the cause of it. Moscow's advantage in West Asia is Russia's century long ties with Muslim nations in Middle East and Central Asia, the latter being a part of the UssR until 1991 when the mighty nation collapsed and disintegrated.
Putin, who took Russia from its chaotic existence in 1990 to new heights in economic, political and military terms by 2004 with politico-economic ties extended to both West and East, now wants feelings of animosity extinguished and past threats forgotten. The BBC's Russian affairs analyst steven Eke
says that Mr. Putin's tour of these pro-western Middle Eastern nations comes at a time when Moscow's disillusionment with the West is growing. Mr. Putin has thus stepped right on to American turf and challenged the position the UsA enjoyed as the chief power broker in West Asia since the collapse of the soviet Union in 1991.
Economic Prospects
The economic agreements with saudi Arabia and Qatar occupied priority space in Kremlin's diplomacy. Putin's visit has made Moscow's political as well as economic intent for the Middle East amply clear. Putin promised that Russia would help saudi Arabia in developing a national nuclear program as well as launching several saudi satellites in addition to the seven already boosted into orbit by a Russian missile in 2005. His visit to saudi Kingdom assumes a lot of significance for emerging East-West relations. in Qatar, the third gas giant of the world after Russia and iran, the proposal for OPEC for Gas regime, or Gas Cartel, was generally addressed. saudi Arabia and Russia are the world's top most oil producers. Lending credence to its claim as a global champion of energy security today, Russia extracted 9.236 million barrels per day of oil in June 2006 46,000 barrels more than
saudi Arabia and its oil supply is expected to average 9.9 mbpd in 2007. As a result, Riyadh wants its own "energy dialogue" with Moscow, which has been facilitated in some way through the five-year oil-and-gas cooperation agreement signed during the landmark visit of Crown Prince Abdullah in 2003.
Russia and Qatar discussed establishing a mechanism to coordinate the supply of natural gas across the globe. in Qatar he held talks with Khalifa Al Thani, who also backed the proposal of Middle East Conference. Moscow and Doha are also engaged in intensifying bilateral energy cooperation, with Gazprom expressing interest in joint gas production and refining projects in Qatar. (Europe imports nearly 44 per cent of its gas supplies from Russia, and the European Union leaders have said they would oppose Russian moves towards forming a cartel).
Though Russia is the world's third largest weapons exporter after the United states and Great Britain,
at $7.1 billion, Russia sold more weapons than the Us in 2005. As Russia is diversifying its arms clients beyond China and india after losing out on the syrian, iraqi and Libyan markets the Gulf countries too are looking for a basket of suppliers beyond the United states. Moscow justifies its resolve without confronting the West.
Middle East Conflicts
Discussions surrounding regional stabilization plans also to touch upon anti-terror cooperation in the face of common threats and challenges, but in a lighter vein. Jordan has more political significance for Moscow, than economic. By involving itself with the iranian nuclear issue as a 'honest broker', Russia also attempts to help the scenario in iraq, where iran's influence in the internal politics of the war-torn country destroyed by the Us-led forces is increasing every day, posing a threat to the unity of the country and throwing up the possibility of the conflict
spilling over to the neighboring countries. Apart from economic interests, it is in this context that Putin is visiting Jordan. Earlier, as part of his West Asian tour in April 2005, Mr. Putin had paid the first ever visit by a Russian or soviet leader to israel and Palestine and the first such visit to Egypt after 1965. Proactive role of Egypt and syria is vital in resolving the Middle East Conflict, involving Palestine, Afghanistan, iraq, iran and Lebanon. Egypt and Russia enjoyed close ties until the 1970s when Egypt turned to the Us, which has since become its most strategic foreign partner, his policy is aimed at bolstering Russia's political and economic relations with Egypt. israel's intermittent wars with the Palestinians and Lebanese have been a serious irritant in resolving the crises because the UsA and UK support israel and there is a growing lobby the world over for israel and against the Arabs. syria wants to redeem its territories on Golan Heights it lost, when israel with Us
support annexed them. Moscow has maintained strong economic ties with syria.
Us-led wars in the Gulf have complicated the Palestinian issue further. Russia strongly opposes the israeli invasions of Lebanon and Palestine, though Kremlin strives to keep the israelis in good humors. Most important, Russia's main concerns remain to revolve around the escalation between the Us and iran, not because it expects Us military action, but because tension would lead to the deployment of advanced Us missile systems near Russian borders, which Moscow perceives as a threat to Russian security.
Palestine, Afghanistan, iraq and iran figured prominently in the talks held by the Russian leader with Arab leaders. While Afghanistan is being looted and destroyed as part of the establishing a so-called democratic world and the Afghans being massacred and tortured by the NATO forces, supported by several countries including israel and india even with their resources, the Us-israel combine is fully focused on eliminating countries like Palestine, Lebanon and iran. Justifiably worried for their own security, iran and its local friends - syria, Lebanon and Palestine - have been attempting to challenge and contain American and israeli power. if you hit us, they say, we will hit you back. This is legitimate and they have achieved some vague success. They need to recognize that the Western world, too, has its interests -- in the free flow of oil, for example, and in using phrases like regime change, democracy and pluralistic system.
A balance of power means respect for everyone's interests, not only of israel or UsA. But the UsA and israel are only concerned about their security, and they also cause insecurity for the rest of the world. The problem with Us is that it is keen that no one country in the West Asia, other than israel, should possess nuclear weapons. When the story about iraq possessing WMD has been exposed badly, iran is accused of threatening the world with its new nuclear program. They insist that there is a danger to the Middle East and world at large until iran comes clean about its real intentions, all those supplying it with arms and extending nuclear cooperation must cease to do so. Going any further at this stage
would only strengthen iran's ambitions to dominate the Middle East even more.
Looking Forward
Clearly, a permanent resolution of Middle East crises requires the proactive role of UsA, UK, Russia, Egypt, EU, apart from the UN and the parties concerned. There have been intense diplomatic efforts between Us and Russia in the recent past on iran, particularly after the increased Us naval presence in the region heightened tension. While the Gulf countries undoubtedly resist iran's nuclear foray, they also fear that any Us military misadventure would wreak further havoc in the region. in this context, just as Russia can use its influence with iran to insist on peaceful nuclear program, it can also use its influence in the UNsC to block any unwarranted action. Both sides must insist on 'sensible' policies from the Us and iran.
Engagement of both Arabs and israel by UsA and Russia is the only way to achieve a qualitative shift in the Middle East peace process, which Russia strives to achieve, despite Putin's aggressive rhetoric. The "Gulf ball" thus is in the court of both Moscow and Washington, confusing the world even more. Cold war would escalate the regional tension further. Presumably, the rhetoric was meant to reiterate the Kremlin desire to forge strong relations with West Asian nations against the wishes of the Us.
Putin's tour of saudi Arabia and Qatar and Jordan, is the first of its kind in the history of diplomatic links between Russia and the Gulf region. "We are in a new level with the view to broaden political talks with Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain and strengthen economic-commercial cooperation with saudi Arabia,'' Russian security Council secretary igor ivan said in January. Russia certainly can play a credible role in the Middle East peace process. Putin now wants feelings of animosity extinguished and past threats to be forgotten. it depends on whether the UsA is genuinely seeking a constructive role in the region; for just as the Us administration should rid itself of the 'Cold War victory' complex. Reluctance to come to terms with reality in the region would, eventually, lead UsA to dustbin of history, leaving Russia, Japan and China in
the center of international politics. some Middle East countries like iran and syria will no doubt be immensely reassured by Putin's diplomacy, but so will saudi Arabia and the Gulf states who are eagerly seeking to diversify their international relations so as to reduce their dependence on a dangerously volatile United states.
Russia is becoming a fairly important player in global politics whose influence stems largely from its permanent veto seat in the UN security Council and its consequent ability to affect regional developments in the Persian Gulf. As one of the four sponsors of the peace "roadmap" comprising the EU, the UN, the Us and Russia, Russia's influence in Arab affairs assumes significance as much as Putin's visit to West Asia is viewed as a peace road to end the israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Kremlin is currently formulating a new Middle East policy, but the absence of a profound, coherent Russian Middle East policy, however, gives rise to confusion about Moscow's longterm goals in the region.
Perhaps, if Russia is able to assert the power of Kremlin to challenge Us unilateralism, it will continue to be a more responsible player in the Middle East, acting with a greater sense of strategic vision. Us lack the guts to attack Moscow, and much of Europe might rally behind it. Putin's conclusion was the following: "i am convinced that we have reached that decisive moment when we must seriously think about the architecture of global security. We must proceed by searching for a reasonable balance between the interests of all participants in the international dialogue. " And although Russia's influence is also translated into the ability to sell weapons, Moscow is unlikely to return to the Middle East as a strategic competitor or a deliberate and aggressive country that proliferates conventional or weapons of mass destruction (WMD) technology. Putin has taken into confidence the regional leaders of Moscow's constructive role. The Us is deeply worried about the outcomes of Putin's West Asian tour and working overnight to set its policy right in the Gulf region.
The author is a research scholar, School of International Studies J N U, New Delhi.