AFTER the promulgation of emergency and take over by the new caretaker government led by Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed in a critical period of the country, it now faces a daunting list of problems that has inevitably been a legacy of the past alliance government. National service sector and constitutional bodies like the PSC, Election Commission and ACC were corroded beyond redemption. Corruption has eaten away at the basic processes of governance. islamic militancy that raised its ugly head during the alliance rule though stymied after the trial and execution of militant leaders, now again raises its head. on the other hand, tax evasion, sagging government revenues, tender manipulations, extortion and commission business that were almost the norms during the past alliance government although seem contained now but have already devastated the nation's

finance. Long term social problems like poverty, illiteracy and health care have gone unattended. But most worrisome at the moment is the spiraling prices of essential food stuff like rice, wheat, pulses, edible oil etc.

in a bid to bring down the prices, the three-month old caretaker government has taken some measures as cutting import duties and launching oMS of essential items by BDR in different parts of the city but still the rise in price of every food stuff including fish and vegetable defy any prognosis. All other issues that the present government faces pale into insignificance as inflation that accompanies the price spiral. Family budgets in the urban homes have seen expenditure on food and groceries going up by as much as 50 percent.

While TV and print media have raised the concern of the urban consumers, the agonies of the rural folk who spend about 60 percent of their income on food items remain unheard. Expectedly with Fakhruddin Ahmed's interim government taking over the reins of administration in the most turbulent period of the nation's history and instituting some bold measures and ushering in various reforms like the reconstitution of EC and ACC and depoliticising the administration within a very short time, people in the country were bubbling with new hopes for a resurgence of national spirit and reconstruction in all sectors of public life

and development activities. But with prices of essentials soaring every day sensible citizenry are afraid if hopes are belied again.

As for containing price spiral, two policy measures or suggestions seem pertinent : containing inflation and improving of the supply situation.

inflation as one might understand is defined as too much money chasing too few goods. With remittance flow and export earning increasing by 4 crore uS dollar every month forex reserve is likely to reach 550 crore uS dollar by the end of this fiscal year, as revealed by the Bangladesh Bank governor, but in absence of facilities to absorb this money flow in industrial sector expansion, it is not surprising that inflation has touched 7.7 percent and may even cross the double digit figure. Fiscal managers in the government might say that the economy is growing because of the increasing remittance flow from Bangladeshis working abroad and increased export earnings mainly from garments and shrimp export.

That means our economy has swelled incomes and put money in people's hands to pay for more goods and services that are in short supply.

The real story is that a combination of supply side bottleneck, arbitrary increase in transport fare due to oil price hike has fuelled a sustained rise in prices of primary goods -- food grain, vegetables and pulses. unhappily, the rise in prices of food items and vegetables that are carried by trucks from the remotest places in the country has never been consistent and proportionate with the fuel price hike. Rather it is the truck owners' arbitrary decision that rules the day. in such a context, as capacities are created and supply situation improves, competition will drive inflationary pressure down and prices will even out. one might accept inflationary trend in a growing industrial economy but this is not so with Bangladesh economy. The most important factor causing a 30 to 40 percent rise in prices of primary goods like food grains and vegetables

may be attributed to market manipulation by interested groups and coteries. unhappily the government has failed to initiate steps to crack down on hoarders and ban forward trading in primary goods.

Going away from market manipulation there are other factors contributing to such price spiral almost every year at this time. Simply put, we do not produce enough for the population that is growing every day. For over two decades now there has been little focus on agriculture. For the past two decades, country's production of rice, wheat and pulses has been stagnant, when per capita income has been growing. With fish and meat going out of reach of the common man, the consumption of pulses has grown steadily but the production level remained static. At the same time imports are limited by options as few countries produce pulses. in such a perspective we need to increase pulse cultivation or invest in technology that would deliver higher yields. As reports reveal there has been no

breakthrough in output efficiency even when the population swelled from 75 million in 1971 to 140 million in 2006. Neither is there any attempt to move farmers from crops that add to water stress towards produce that we necessarily import.

As reports published in the newspapers through government sources of late reveal that there has been a 17.63 percent increase in opening LC for the import of edible oil during the last nine months. Compared to that in the preceding year, the price hike of soybean oil in the local markets by about 25 percent per litre defies any logic. Conspicuously, oil traders' version is different. They say that there has been increase in oil prices in the international market and the present crisis they attribute to decreased oil import and they also maintain that prices will not come down and will further increase unless the government curtails the amount of duty imposed on import.

unhappily whether it is oil seeds or pulses, acreage in these sectors in

the country is unusually low. The crisis is compounded by the fact that in the south-western region of the country vast chunk of agricultural land is being used as shrimp farms. Shockingly true, shrimp farming might be a source of export earning but with earnings confined to a limited circle, it can't feed the burgeoning population when land holdings are so limited and such incomes do not reach the poor and the working class in the villages.

on the other hand even in places where agriculture practices are being intensively followed, over a third of the vegetable and fruit produce gets wasted in the fields. in that perspective a long term plan is necessary to avert such periodic crisis year in and year out. There is an urgent need for restructuring agriculture with investments, new technology and new direction.

The price rise in perishables like fruit and vegetables may be attributed to lack of effective storage facilities and efficient delivery system. Thanks to the absence of distribution links and processing, millions of tonnes of vegetable and fruit are wasted which adds to losses and prices. The answer lies in the fact that the traditional distribution chain from field to fork is too long and cumbersome .it involves too many middlemen forcing consumers paying as much as four times of what the farmer gets paid for his produce. The problem will continue

to mount up and consumers will continue to suffer as long as the retail chains have not invested in logistics and warehouses that would ensure delivering value to both consumers and farmers.

unhappily every crisis in the country brings about a spate of reform proposals that are laid down on paper and never implemented. The problem with the policy making bodies in the country is that there is endless debate as long as the crisis lasts. ironically the government goes back to “business as usual” mode as prices even out. Precisely true, food security is not an issue that a nation of 140 million people, totally dependent on rice and pulses, can take lightly.

The staggering rise in the price of rice has its roots, other than market manipulation, in the shortfall of 'Boro' production because of fertiliser crisis and lack of timely irrigation facilities due to disruption in power supply. it was widely speculated that there would be a shortfall of about 3 million tonnes of rice and a crisis situation might develop unless the government takes prompt measures to address the problem. Pathetically, when the government decided to take action either by importing foodgrains or launching oMS in the internal market, it was a process that was too late and drove prices further up.

Md. Asadullah Khan is a former teacher of Physics and Controller of Examinations, BUET.