THE voting pattern in India is undergoing a change beyond conjectures. There were times when Pakistan or Kashmir would be an issue at every election, provincial or central. Then it was the phase of slogans like the state's constitutional rights and New Delhi's tendency to violate them. Some such noises still linger.

Yet, it is the development that has come to the focus in the last decade or so. The voters have begun measuring their economic gain when selecting a political party to press the button at the polling booth. No doubt, their vote against the ruling group is called the anti-incumbency factor. But what it really means is their dissent against governance -whether the state made their life easier and safer. This is reflected in elections in three states: Punjab and Uttrakhand in the north, and Manipur in the northeast. The first two have gone against the Congress which was the ruling there. The party has, however, retained the third, Manipur, although precariously. The loud and clear message the polls give is that the

way to the ballot box goes through the path which the economic development paves. The Bhartiya Janata Party's coalition learnt the lesson only when it lost majority in the Lok Sabha nearly three years ago. It projected that India was shining under its rule, while the fact was that the country, especially the rural area, was reeling under indifferent, cursory development. Slogans, to the BJP's woes, did not sell; nor the publicity worth millions of rupees.

The reverse the Congress has suffered in Punjab and Uttrakhand has the same explanation: the belied expectation of voters for their economic wellbeing. Price rise hit the party still more. Not surprisingly, women who have to balance the expenditure against income polled most in Punjab, nearly 78 percent in the state where men are 55 percent. Still, the Congress got more popular votes than before. In Punjab, the swing in its favour was four percent, and in Uttrakhand two. The defeat in both the states has been close, and the party fought more or less as a team.

However, the political scene in Punjab has changed. There was no

cry for the state's autonomy (Khalistan, an independent state of the Sikh community) this time. The biggest proponent of Khalistan, Simmranjit Singh Maan, was defeated at the polls. The Sikhs want a pluralistic society, not panthic. The Akalis, for the first time, fielded seven Hindu and one Muslim candidates. The point at issue was primarily the government's performance and the outgoing chief minister Amarinder Singh's style of functioning. The most prosperous state in the country, Punjab, has slid to the fifth position. Even farmers have committed suicide. Amarinder Singh failed to react and went on with his maharaja-type of ruling.

One other factor which has counted with the voters in Punjab and Uttrakhand is the rulers' contact with people. Amarinder Singh was always distant from the common man. Unlike him, his opponent, Prakash Singh Badal, the new chief minister, was a familiar figure even in the remotest part. When he was in the wilderness, Badal kept his up contacts, leaving his house at Chandigarh every day in the morn-

ing and returning in the evening.

In Uttrakhand, the Congress leaders had a penchant for official cars with the beacon lights. They did not have to be cabinet ministers to flaunt this symbol of authority. Uttrakhand had the paraphernalia of development. It must be said to the credit of the outgoing chief minister, N.D. Tewari, that he brought practically every big industrial house to the state. Yet the gestation period took its toll. The benefits had not begun to accrue when election was held. The fact that Tewari did his best saved the Congress from ignominious defeat. Had he himself contested, he would have made a difference. People saw the foremost fighter withdrawing from the battle even before it had begun.

The ominous development is the return of the BJP in urban areas. In the last election the party was the Akali Dal's Achilles' heel, adding only three to its strength. This time the BJP gave 16 seats, apart from the Hindu votes. In fact, the revival of the BJP is what should be a matter of concern to the secular parties. The Shiv Sena-BJP front won most of the municipal seats in

Maharashtra last month. Now the Akali-BJP combine has won a majority in Punjab. In Uttarakhand, the BJP has gained 15 seats to make 34 in a 70-member house. Not that the BJP played the Hindutva card, but the party's basic ideology of creating a Hindu state remains unchanged. Pluralism is what holds the country democratic and united. The recovery of the BJP means that the space of pluralism is shrinking. The biggest drawback in fighting against communalism is that the Congress, the main party, lacks committed members, although not the commitment. The party has not been able to project the image of a secular outfit. There are doubts about many of its leaders, particularly in the states. In Punjab, the party's blessings from a religious organisation like the Sucha Sauda Dera put a question mark against secular credentials of the Congress.

The electoral politics has also made the party compromise on the fundamentals. When it admits in its ranks former BJP and Shiv Sena members in Maharashtra or extremists in Punjab, the Congress does not realise the harm it is doing to itself. The

impression goes around that communalism is not after all such a blemish as is made out.

The reason why the 9-10 percent growth rate is not paying the Congress dividends is the share which is appropriated by the upper half. They are the real gainers of developments. The lower half remains where it has been. The party has belatedly realised this. But the love for globalisation that most cabinet ministers and Congress leaders have makes them look like part of the corporate sector. Capitalism has never gone down well in India. Progress, without giving up the concept of welfare state, is a challenge before the Congress. It should quickly take remedial measures because the mother of elections is round the corner in UP.

Whether the Punjab and Uttrakhand elections would affect the centre is too early to say. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh did not reportedly rule out some fallout. If the UP goes against the Congress, as is the expectation, the Manmohan Singh government may face a challenge of sorts. The election of the president, due later in the year, is bound to be contentious. The Congress should start talking to the opposition to find a candidate through consensus.

Kuldip Nayar is an eminent Indian columnist.