The national budget for the next fiscal year (FY) may provide for recruiting about 100,000 new government staffs, with a special allotment earmarked for that, an establishment ministry source said.
But, as the World Bank has reservations about such massive fag-end recruitment, the government is likely to show the yet-to-be-created government posts as technical ones.
The source also said the process of filling up the one lakh 'technical' posts might start as early as July and completed within the next three months, before the 4-party alliance
government ends its term.
This is one of the popular programmes the government intends to incorporate into the budget for FY2006-07 with an aim to rip political gains in the upcoming general elections.
According to the finance ministry's initial estimations, FY07 may see a budget to the tune of Tk 71,000 crore, or 11 per cent larger than the current one, ministry sources said.
The Tk 64,383 crore current budget is also 13 per cent bigger than the original budget of the previous year of 2004-05.
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The budget monitoring and resources committee of the finance ministry early this month held a preliminary discussion meeting on revising the current budget as well as outlining the next one. A ministry source said there would be more meetings before the budget of FY07 gets its final shape.
The country will have three governments in FY07 -- the present government will continue in office until October 2006, a caretaker government will be at the helm for the next three months and finally a newly elected government will take over.
Amid such quick succession of changes, sources said, it is very likely that both revenue growth and foreign aid inflow will slow down in the next fiscal year.
Even in the current fiscal year, about 15 per cent revenue growth can be achieved, instead of the targeted 17 per cent, the NBR sources added.
The total revenue target in the next budget is reckoned to be set at Tk 52,000 crore, which is 14 per cent higher than the Tk 45,722 crore target in the current budget.
Of the total revenue target of FY07, the task of gathering about Tk 41,000 crore may fall on the National Board of Revenue (NBR), which is now assigned to collect Tk 35,652 crore of the current year's targeted revenue.
NBR sources said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been pressing the government to raise its annual revenue target to over 11 per cent of the GDP. But, they said, even in a normal year it is not possible to generate revenue amounting to more than 11 per cent of the GDP, let alone in an election year like FY07.
On the other hand, in the last several years, foreign aids as development support credit and education support credit have greatly helped the government realise its budgets. But, there is now an uncer-
tainty about getting these credits in FY07.
The foreign aid inflow has already started to nosedive. Which is evident from the fact that the foreign aid received in the first seven months of FY06 is about 53 per cent less than that in the corresponding period of FY05.
The country's four major development partners including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have committed about $6 billion for a full-fledged implementation of the strategic poverty reduction programmes over the next four years. But as the government is unlikely to fulfil the reform conditions to qualify for the aid, it may miss the aid-portion for FY07.
On top of all, the sharp price spiral in oil in the global market has also put the government in severe fiscal-management hurdles.
Under the circumstances, the sources said, the Finance Division finds it tough to revise the current budget and chalk out the next one.
On the expenditure side, the next Annual Development Programme (ADP) might get Tk 26,500 crore, which would be 8 per cent higher than the Tk 24,500 crore current ADP, which however might be trimmed by Tk 2,500 crore.
Again, in FY07 the government will need an extra Tk 2,000 crore to implement the third phase of the sixth pay scale for government employees. A special allocation may also be reserved for conducting elections. Consequently, the revenue expenditure in FY07 may be to the tune of Tk 45,000 crore.
In the current budget, too, there is little chance of downsizing the Tk 38,000-plus revenue expenditure. Rather it may have to be raised to provide for the extra expenditures by the Election Commission, sources said.