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THE HORIZON THIS WEEK

Referendum in Iraq

ARSHAD-UZ ZAMAN
***the aftermath of the Iraqi elections followed by the distinct possibility of US withdrawal and the fierce fight between the three Iraqi communities, the Shias, the Sunnis, and the Kurds, is bound to create a whole new situation. Since the invasion of Iraq by the US at the invitation of the Kurds, who were mercilessly tortured by Saddam Hussein, they have enjoyed a position of privilege. In the new order of things after January the power equation is bound to change.***
REFERENDUM in Iraq has been held under the US bayonet. That was to be expected. The result is a foregone conclusion. The Iraqis will approve the constitution by a sizeable majority. The next step, that is elections in Iraq under the new constitution will take place in January next. The new Iraq will take its place according to the plan drawn up in Washington DC.
In the meantime, the coalition led by the US continues to lose blood. Every once in a while, a major contributor to the coalition forces calls it a day and pulls out its troops from Iraq. Soon it will be Silvio Berlusconi, the Prime Minister of Italy, who will withdraw his forces from Iraq. There is virtually no possibility of any new country joining the coalition, which has remained on the
ground thanks to the solo effort of US President George W. Bush. Britain, who has been a steadfast ally, is expected to run the course. In fact the Anglo-American coalition did not appear due to Iraq. How can we forget former British Premier Margaret Thatcher standing before her 10 Downing Street home, giving unstinted support to her friend, US President Ronald Reagan.
As the US-led coalition battles the Iraqi insurgency, the situation in Iraq continues to get worse by the day. The security situation remains volatile at best. The US is valiantly attempting to recruit a virtually brand new army and security personnel and train them to fight the insurgents. The forces that are ranged against the US-led coalition are mainly the remnants of former Iraq President Saddam Hussein's forces, who melted away on the arrival of the US-led forces that drove Saddam away from power and is now awaiting trial.
Those forces of Saddam Hussein and other fraternal forces have now joined hands and are continuing their murderous run on the coalition. Since more often than not the US-led coalition forces are beyond the range of their guns or suicide bombings, the target is more and more Iraqi soldiers, police, and civilians. In fact the insurgents in Iraq have declared virtual war on not only the coalition forces, but any Iraqi helping the US effort in establishing a regime put in place by the US. We thus witness a tug of war in Iraq, where the US is attempting to put in place a regime hand-picked by them and facing total resistance from an insurgency which continues to grow in size and daring operation.
The US onslaught on Iraq has now moved to the new phase of establishing a representative regime. The fact that referendum has been held even as guns were held by the US forces will naturally embolden President Bush to move to the next phase, that is elections under the new constitution in January next. The fact that the Sunnis have been unable to foil the holding of the referendum is seen in Washington as a success of the US effort. There has been some feeling of disappointment at the low turnout in Kurdish North Iraq. That is explained by the certainty of the favourable result anticipated by the coalition forces. The Shia dominated South Iraq is waiting for the ripe fruit to descend on her lap when the US forces say good-bye. Indeed, pressure has been building on President Bush within his own country to withdraw the US forces from Iraq as the list of killed US soldiers has grown larger. Although the approval rating of President Bush has dwindled dangerously, mercifully street demonstrations in US cities have
been few and far between.
After the projected Iraqi elections in January it will be a whole new ball game. President Bush will certainly start winding up his adventure in Iraq. The US political community and specially his Republican Party will have no interest in continuing the Iraqi adventure as presidential elections will appear on the horizon and President Bush will become a real lame duck. And the aftermath of the Iraqi elections followed by the distinct possibility of US withdrawal and the fierce fight between the three Iraqi communities, the Shias, the Sunnis, and the Kurds, is bound to create a whole new situation. Since the invasion of Iraq by the US at the invitation of the Kurds, who were mercilessly tortured by Saddam Hussein, they have enjoyed a position of privilege. In the new order of things after January the power equation is bound to change.
Iraq, the second largest reservoir of world petroleum, will continue to attract world attention.
Arshad-uz Zaman is a former Ambassador and Acting Secretary General, OIC.