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Koizumi breaks new ground in Japanese politics

MUHAMMAD ZAMIR
JAPANESE Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi stormed to victory in the latest Japanese general elections held on September 11. He called the snap election nearly two years ahead of schedule to push forward his plan to privatise the national post office. He did so out of the belief that such a move would not only inject new life into the world's second biggest economy, but also help to clean up a culture of political patronage that has ruled Japanese politics for over fifty years.
Believing in the unusual, the media-savvy Koizumi also pulled out an interesting rabbit out of his hat. He enlisted a stream of celebrity candidates to counter dour dissenters within his own party. These individuals were dubbed as “shikaku” or assassins and used as weapons by the astute Prime Minister against the stolid non-charismatic rebels within his party. Ultimately, the election became a shadow play, a kabuki of good versus evil. It was, in more ways than one, a form of grandiose revenge drama, acted out against the backdrop of a political and economic landscape desperately in need of reform.
This election has seen the Japanese Prime Minister at his best. He has finally been able to bring off a sea-
change in political style. He has also initiated the fundamental steps towards his own vision of a resurgent Japan with a modernised ruling party. This mandate will enable him to carry out re-structuring measures pertaining to Japan Post, financial services giant (that employs 261,940 as of the beginning of April this year compared to the 253,180 personnel in the Japanese armed forces) that includes a savings bank and insurance business with a combined US dollar 3 trillion in assets. It may be mentioned here that
it will also permit him to take steps about reforming the facets of social insurance, the civil service, public sector outsourcing, and other government financial institutions.
On this, the fiftieth anniversary year of the founding of his party, the LDP, Koizumi has proven that despite his unconventional approach towards politics, he enjoys support from rural Japan as well as the industrial belts. He has won 296 seats (59 more than in 2003) in the 480 seat Lower House of the Japanese parliament. His coalition partner -- New Komeito led by Takanori Karzaki has also taken 31 seats. This will allow the ruling bloc to dominate the chamber with majorities in all committees and also to override if necessary, the Upper House.
This election has also assumed importance because of the record number of 43 women who have now entered parliament. Japan has been known in the past for having the developed world's lowest female representation in its legislature. This time round all 26 LDP female candidates have won their seats, including many with no past political experience. It may be recalled here that the previous House had only 33 female lawmakers with 9 of them from the LDP.
The past few days have indicated that Japanese investors have responded positively to the electoral victory. The benchmark Nikkei-225 index has gained by nearly 2 per cent. The Japanese currency has also gained against the US dollar.
Analysts are now predicting an upward revision in Japanese growth data in real price-adjusted terms. It is also clear that, with reforms, there is a possibility of stronger domestic demand. It is also clear that with reforms, there is a possibility of stronger domestic demand. It is being predicated that higher oil prices might affect some of the future growth, but, in all probability, Japan's energy efficient economy, under Koizumi's continued management will be able
to ride out the storm of reducing trade surplus as it has done in the past. There is increased optimism that Koizumi will now be able to balance his books by selling under-performing state assets, cutting government debts and giving companies a bigger role in spurring growth.
The re-elected Prime Minister has already indicated in the Japanese parliament towards the end of September that he intends to announce in November this year a plan to reform the government affiliated banks by
2008 -- one of the first concrete signs that he plans to exercise his authority and push reform beyond only privatisation of the state-owned post office. This proposed move would provide an important boost for the country's private sector banks, which have been undermined by government backed financial institutions that have, according to David Ibison of the Financial Times, “cannibalised their customer base and undercut their prices.”
Koizumi's victory will however not be received with great delight by Japan's neighbours, South Korea and China. Chen Zilei, an analyst at the Shangai Institute of International Relations has pointed out that Koizumi will now feel more confident.
It is also likely that he might move further to the right and consequently be less flexible over controversial issues like disputes over energy, textbooks, strategic support for Taiwan, and his visits to the Yasukuni shrine.
Bejing is now likely to find itself in a bit of a bind. China for some years has refrained from exchange of visits at the leadership level with Japan. They have also opposed Japan's entry into the United Nations Security Council as a permanent member. With his re-
election, China will be faced with the dilemma as to whether they should persist in their strong opposition to Koizumi and his politics for the next few years. They will have to do so not only because of the massive increase in bilateral trade between the two countries, but also for the steep increase in the number of stakeholders involved in this equation. South Korea will also have to do some serious re-thinking.
While China and the Republic of Korea ponder over the future, Japan and its leadership should also take steps to identify how it can co-exist with better understanding with its neighbours. I believe that it is not seeking hegemonic power as is being alleged, but at the same time it should
refrain from creating further complications arising out of past historical issues.
Koizumi will have many problems that have to be addressed. In the recent past, there has been an increase in the rate of unemployment and a fall in land, property, and stock prices. There has also been greater migration from rural to urban areas which has created complications for the rural economy. He knows that these are issues which can easily deteriorate over time unless attended to promptly. His task will not be made easier by the fact that he also faces the challenges arising from an ageing population and declining birth-rate.
Nevertheless, what is important is the manner is which Koizumi and Japan has carried out the electoral obligations. It has been an excellent example of how democratic institutions are supposed to function. There was very little time in between the decision to go the polls and for the election to take place. Yet, the process was completed smoothly and without associated problems. Despite the presence of entrenched vested interests, representative politics has ushered in a new era. Rancour and post-election mud-slinging have not been noticed. In a way, this has been a lesson for all of us in Bangladesh.
Japan, through this election has again underlined its pre-eminence in the context of Asian politics. It has restated through its action that it believes in good governance, in a strong, neutral election commission, and fair polls. It has also demonstrated that state institutions do not have to over-step their areas of responsibility and jeopardise available democratic options.
Mohammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador.