& çâÌæÚUæð´ ·¤è ¥ôÚU Îð¹Ùæ ÁæÚUè ÚU¹ð´ ¥ÍæüÌ ¥ÂÙð ÜÿØ ÂÚU ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´Ð ãæÚU Ù ×æÙð´, €UØô´ç·¤ ·¤æ× ·¤ÚUÙð âð ¥æÂ·¤ô ©gðàØ ·¤è Âýæç# ãôÌè ãñ ¥õÚU ÁèßÙ ·¤æ ¹æÜèÂÙ ÎêÚU ãôÌæ ãñÐ ÖÜð ãè ÁèßÙ ×ð´ ç·¤ÌÙè Öè ·¤çÆÙæ§ü €UØô´ Ù ¥æ°, çÁ™ææâæ ¥õÚU ©ˆâæã ÕÙæ° ÚU¹ð´Ð ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´, ÜÿØ ã×ðàææ ¥æÂ·Ô¤ Âæâ ãôÌð ãñ´ çÁ‹ãð´ ÂæÙð ·Ô¤ çÜ° ÂýØæâ ¥æÂ ·¤Öè Öè àæéM¤ ·¤ÚU â·¤Ìð ãñ´Ð

China's naval power: An aircraft carrier of its own?

Barrister Harun ur Rashid
IN recent days, the US Deputy Secretary of State, Robert Zoellick, has expressed concerns on China’s military spending and its objectives at a seminar in NewYorkonUS-Chinapolicy.
China as "strategic competitor"
The concerns of the Bush Administration are not new. Before 9/11, die Bush administration and the then National Security Adviser Dr. Rice (presently the Secretary of State) considered China as "strategic competitor", not as "strategic partner". Being a specialist on Communist Russia, she regarded China as another "enemy" of the US in the Asia-Pacific region. This view was contrary to that of Clinton's era.
In that year in April, a US surveillance aircraft strayed into the airspace of China and a full diplomatic row began in which the Bush Administration had to climb down from its demand and had to accept what China insisted. The plane was inspected fully and then released by China.
It was the first taste of strategic weakness of the US to China. Then came9/11 and the Bush administration changed its foreign policy gear and turned towards Iraq and the war is still continuing, although in May 2003 President Bush prematurely declared "Mission Accomplished" in Iraq.
China new strategies
China has emerged as an industrial power and its economic growth has been staggering. Within the next two decades, economists predict that Cltina will surpass the economy of the US. It is the third largest trading nation in the world (China's exports in last August to the US only stood at US$67.8 billiondollars).
China is also taking new initiatives in strategic policies. It has .mended its relations with Russia
and India to counter potential threat of the US in Asia Pacific. It is noted that China, Russia and India constitute 40% per cent of world's population and 20% per cent of world's GDR
China first settled border dispute with Russia. In July of tills year, Russia and China, under the umbrella of the Shanghai Accord of the Central Asian countries, in Almaty, Kazakhstan, they Issued a nine-page declaration in which.
among others, they urged the US to withdraw its military bases from the Central Asian Republics as the war on Afghanistan had ended. (Uzbekistan has served its formal notice to tile US to withdraw its bases by December this year). The recent Russia-Chinese military exercise is an instance In point of growingSino-Russian relationship
China's Prime Minister visited India last April and concluded 11 agreements covering a wide range of subjects. Most importantly China and India came into agreement to settle the border dispute. Cliina and India restored its friendship of the early 50s and declared a new dimension of relations that might counter US's dominance in Asia Pacific
Global Weapon Sales in 2004 For some time China turned its attention to-weapons acquisition. According to a report of the US Congressional Research Service (a division of the US Library of Con-
gress). released in August, the top three buyers of weapons, in 200-1, were India (US$5.7 billion), China (US$2.2 billion) and Saudi Arabia (US$2.9 billion) and the three top suppliers were US, Russia and Britain.
Hie total spending by developing world in 200-1 stood at US$21.8 billion, more than US$6 billion than in 2003. The total arm sales and weapons transfer agreements to both industrialized, and developing
world in 2004 was nearly USS37 billion.
The annual study Is considered the most thoroughly publicly available report on global weapons sales. In die study’s introduction, defence specialist Richard Grimmett, writes: " Relationships between arms suppliers and recipients continue to evolve in response to changing political, military, and economic circumstances. Nonetheless, the developing world continues to be the primary focus of foreign arms sales activity by conventional weapons suppliers."
According to another report, the defence budgets of the U.S is currently USS-100 billion, China's USS 90 billion and India's USS30 billion. The European Union spends about USS200 billion.
Chinese Aircraft Carrier? What China lacks in military power is the aircraft carrier of its own on the sea. The US arms strategists think,
that China is a long way off to possess an aircraft carrier. Even if it does, it will siphon off resources from other People's Liberation Army Navy. These include antiaccess capabilities for use in a future conflict overTaiwan such as fielding more diesel-electric submarines, anti-ship cruise missile platforms and ballistic missiles with manoeuvring warheads that navy officials project could be capable of targeting US warships.
Retired US Navy rear Admiral Eric McVadon, an expert on the Chinese military and former US military Attache to Beijing, reportedly said that it would be a little surprising if China were seriously pursuing a carrier as up to now Beijing has focused on improving its antiaccess capabilities in a Taiwan crisis scenario situation in which a Chinese aircraft carrier would be of marginal value.
However, it is reported that Chinese navy is conducting repairs on the ex-Russian Kuznetsov-class-aircraft carrier Varyag, raising the question of whether China is seeking a carrier of its own. In the latest developments, imagesshow that the workers at the Chinese Dalian Shipyard have repainted the ex-Russian carrier with the markings and colour scheme of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
Janes's Defence Weekly of 17 August. 2005, writes: " JDW believes that PLA}I technicians
have also conducted thorough studies of the basic structure of the Varyag during the past few years to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the carrier's structural design. Former PLAN commander General Liu Huaqing stated in his memoirs that China had purchased blueprints for the carriera fact that Russian sources confirmed to JDW. Moreover Hen. Huaqing added: ' The competent departments of the defence industry employed Russian aircraft carrier designers to come to China and give lectures.'....A military strategist from a Chinese military university has commented publicly that the Varyag would be China's first aircraft carrier;"
Conclusion
Many strategists believe that China’s ultimate intentions are unclear. Somesay that since the core structure of the ex-Russian carrier was destroyed before China bought it, it is questionable whether China would pursue to invest money and effort to make the Varyag to a folly operational capability.
US defence and military officials are also skeptical about the carrier because China first has to learn how to conduct integrated carrier operations with the-rest- of-, the fleet, including having to acquire the requisite escorts. Past Russian and US experiences demonstrate that such skills and operations are not quickly learnt
Whatever the views, it is likely that China is looking at the exRussian carrier seriously with a view to starting an indigenous aircraft carrier programme. Without carrier, China has been much to the disadvantage compared to the US's military might on the sea. Furthermore, India is reportedly planning to make aircraft carrier. If it does, the question is : can China be lagging behind?
Be author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN. Geneva.