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The Horizon This Week

World: Unipolar vs multipolar

By advocating in favour of a unipolar world Tony Blair appears to be backing a losing horse. The world has moved inexorably towards multipolarity, and it is not Europe alone who will call all the shots. Great powers are emerging in Asia and new alignments are daily appearing. The world will breathe more easily if the US comes to terms with her newsituation, without causing further hurt.

Arshad-uz Zaman
that is lots of Iraqi oil. Here again, although the US plays a strong hand in the domain of oil, there are large European companies who are likely to stake a claim. The fragile structure that was built by Saddam, cobbling together regional claims, linguistic and ethnic varieties and all that with an iron hand, where his Sunni minority effectively ruled over a Shia majority, will be very difficult to match. The Americans are an impatient people and how long they will be able to stand between com-
progress the EU has grown around Franco-German leadership, although the organization is of sovereign powerful states of Europe.
As the EU continued to gather strength, Britain, always cautious in her diplomacy, tried to obstruct the growth of EU, tried in vain to set up a parallel organization, and joined reluctantly as a member. Thus Britain, in spite of her strength has remained the outsider looking in as far as the EU is concerned. She has
IN a recent statement in the House of Commons in London, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has eloquently advocated in favour of a unipolar world under the leadership of his favourite country the United States of America. It may turn out to be a cry in the wilderness.
Great Britain finds herself in an unenviable situation. She joined the US in her strike against poor, defenseless Iraq and found herself isolated from her natural allies - the European Union. France and Germany stood firm within the Security Council of the UN and was joined by another veto wielding huge nation -Russia. China, another big power with a veto tacitly supported these powers. The world thus witnessed a spectacle where the big power the US took in tow Great Britain and launched a ferocious strike on the people of that historic city Baghdad -- cradle of many ancient civilizations. The target of this bombardment, President Saddam Hussein, appears to have vanished into thin air. In the meantime the "Governor General" Gen. Jay Garner is busy organizing a new administration in Iraq.
The US will no doubt soon discover that driving out President Saddam Hussein was child's play compared to what awaits the Americans in the days and months ahead. The chances are that they will content themselves with the loot -
peting claims within Iraq, is anybody's guess. In any case unlike the British they have very little experience in managing empires.
Tony Blair, the British Prime Minister finds himself almost forced to choose between the longtime ally, the US and the uncomfortable European partners. Geographically the pull of the EU is daily increasing. The EU is steadily gaining in number and has now reached the figure of 25. These are all industrialized states and economically the EU is a force to reckon with. Its political structure is slowly emerging. It is worthwhile to recall that the origin of the EU is the decision of the leadership of France and Germany to bury the hatchet after the Second World War. In its nearly half a century of
not yet joined the powerful European currency, the Euro. The problem for Britain is that the leadership role of the EU has been effectively taken over by the Franco-German entente. Regrettably, with the US, Britain can at best play second fiddle. It became crystal clear during the Iraq crisis, when even a large number of Labour MPs of Prime Minister Blair revolted.
The US is going through convulsions since September 11, 2001, when she was brutally attacked from within in front of the gaze of the whole world. On that day the US formally lost her Superpower status. As the Twin Towers collapsed like a house of cards, Fortress America lay in ruins in front of our eyes. Indeed US reached the apogee of
her power after the Second World War. She has been steadily losing ground since then. It has been effectively masked due to Superpower confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union which the US won in 1962 following the withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba under US threat. In the beginning of the eighties the US author Paul Kennedy wrote a remarkable book entitled "Rise and Decline of the Great Powers." In that book Kennedy wrote eloquently about the steady decline of the Great Powers including the USsince 1945.
2001 was the turning point. This is when the US officially lost her Superpower status. What we witness today is the convulsion that this state of affairs is bound to create. Giant US is passing through a crisis in order to come to terms with its new status. There is no wonder, therefore, that President George W. Bush declares that French President Jacques Chirac will not be welcome in his Texas ranch. France, with her Permanent Membership of the Security Council and nuclear arsenal, has thrown a challenge at the US that the world has ceased to be unipolar. True, the US, as we have seen in the case of Iraq, is strong enough to frighten small countries. But on that basis it would be ridiculous to claim to be a Superpower. By refusing to invite Chirac to his Texas ranch, President Bush exhibits his petulance.
By advocating in favour of a unipolar world Tony Blair appears to be backing a losing horse. The world has moved inexorably towards multipolarity, and it is not Europe alone who will call all the shots. Great powers are emerging in Asia and new alignments are daily appearing. The world will breathe more easily if the US comes to terms with her new situation, without causing further hurt.
Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.