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Regional cooperation slumbers among watchful South Asian neighbours

SYED MAQSUD JAMIL
SAARC is in a moribund state. It needs a trusting atmosphere marked by a spirit of equality and goodwill to invigorate it to a state where regional cooperation brings economic rewards for all the peoples of South Asia. Only an unencumbered statesmanship that values shared vision can make it happen.***
SoUTH Asia is perhaps the largest region in the world in terms of population. it has a total population of around 1.43 billion people. ASEAN with a larger area and with half the population of South Asia has developed itself into a prosperous region. in spite of its large area and ample resources indonesia has fallen into bad time with per capita GDp (purchasing capacity) of 3,500 US Dollar. But it is even higher than the per capita GDp (purchasing capacity) of india, which is US Dollar 3,100. The figure looks worse in comparison to Thailand with the highest per capita GDp (purchasing capacity) of US Dollar 8,100 and relatively tolerable in comparison to China with per capita GDp (purchasing capacity) of US Dollar 5,600. Sri Lanka looks comfortably good with per capita GDp (purchasing capacity) of US Dollar 4,000 in comparison to pakistan with a per capita GDp (purchasing capacity) of US Dollar 2,200, which is slightly higher than Bangladesh with per capita GDp (purchasing capacity) of US Dollar of 2,000. The average per capita GDp (purchasing capacity) is about 2,600 US Dollar. it is half the per capita GDp (purchasing capacity) of China with a lesser population of 1.3 billion people.
As far as regional cooperation goes the region has a moribund association in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SAARC. The concept holds great promise for the region but SAARC has produced very little in the last 12 years since 1993. over the years visions or practical considerations of economic cooperation have floundered and drifted away into inaction. This has happened in the face of overly cautious and even distrusting watchful conduct of the neighbours in matters of inter-state and multi-state economic cooperation. The perception is such enveloping in nature that even the most favourable and promising prospect is squandered in increasingly vexatious exchange of information and data and conditions.
Geographically, the countries are interlinked with no forbidding features to fragment it into isolated units. There is a great degree of accessibility in the region. A causeway can link Sri Lanka to the rest of the region. The region has a fairly good diversity of energy sources in coal, natural and hydroelectric power. Agriculture feeds its people but not to the degree of abundance. in terms of resources the region has a complementary character. india has coal, Bangladesh has natural gas and coal, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka has hydropower.
More than a century of industrial development has endowed india with a strong industrial base and a technically skilled manpower. pakistan's industrial base has also come of age during the last half century of independence. Bangladesh on the other hand is going through a promising period of infrastructure development with its natural gas and coal resource endowing it with much potentiality. The landlocked countries Nepal and Bhutan, more precisely Nepal is plodding on with its indigent people in spite of being rich in hydropower and tourism potentialities. pakistan on the other hand is engaged in restoring its economy since pervez Musharraf took over. india and pakistan the largest of the neighbours in South Asia have seen little economic interaction because of their congenitally hostile relationship. The thaw brought about by recent cricket camaraderie remains vulnerable in view of the global ambition of india and the competing ardour of Pakistan. It is rather nai
ve to think that greater exchanges in india-Pakistan relationship has come to last. So long the combustible Kashmir issue simmers on indo-Pak ties remains unpredictably sensitive. For the time being ceremonious courtesies are having a nice time. They are much less than trusting neighbours with mutual distrust lurking in the back of their minds.
The USA card has great influence on indo-Pak ties. Dr. Manmohan Singh's recent meeting with President Bush and signing of treaty for cooperation in the field of peaceful use of nuclear power is likely to be viewed by Pakistan with concern. it was an important meeting where US support for india's permanent membership in UN Security Council was sought. These are sensitive developments to put Pakistan's security concerns on alert.
india's global ambition would bring back tension in indo-Pak ties unless it brings Pakistan into its plan of things. The resolution of Kashmir problem is the key to permanent and durable peace between india and Pakistan. Unless there is steady progress in its resolution their ties have all the characteristics of declining into familiar hostile postures. The news of one of the London suicide bombers receiving religious education in Pakistani Madrassas have brought back the focus on it as the sanctuary and training ground of islamic terrorists. 9/11 and the recent London bombing has permanently handicapped Pakistan's support for militancy in Kashmir. Kashmiri militants are now left to the position where they will have to look after themselves.
As far as Kashmir issue goes the moral considerations are greater for Pakistan with the overwhelming majority in Kashmir valley and with the vindication of Security Council resolutions on holding plebiscite. However they already have one third of Kashmir and have all along zealously defended the cause, sometimes at a great cost. Considering these realities it is difficult to think of any Pakistani regime to absolve itself of the 'perceived stigma' of abandoning their 'Kashmiri brothers' even at the cost of courting the wrath of US and its allies.
For india Kashmir valley is not a question of ethnic affinity, neither it is a question of holding on to a resource rich territory. She has two thirds of Jammu and Kashmir and is happy with it. india is an assemblage of peoples with diverse ethnicity, language, custom and culture. india is the symbol that binds her peoples. A fear works in the minds of indian political leaders that Kashmir tests their resolve. Any weakness or trade off however rewarding it is would put the statehood of india under threat. Centripetal force emanating from the statehood of india to bind the diverse group of people will weaken and dissident forces already active will grow formidable to encourage others to follow suit.
Any solution of Kashmir issue that involves forfeiture of territorial rights is translated by india as reneging on principles of indian statehood. However a dispassionate look at the problem does not find it an intractable issue and sees that a solution is always possible. Now that the Kashmiris are leaning towards selfrule, a status quo with a degree of selfrule bolstered further by open or easily accessible line of control where it is looked after by lightly armed Kashmiri home guards with joint group of indian and Pakistani observers can be a good beginning. At the bottom of it, for all people in the world the foremost tangible good a state can do for its people is to bring economic well being. it is well within the comprehension of well meaning statesmen.
Both india and Pakistan are energy deficit countries needing assured and easily accessible energy at a reasonable price. Tri-partite or multipartite accord for bringing natural gas from iran and the Central Asian countries through gas pipeline can greatly energise the economies of these two countries. Distrust only deepens the darkness but the courage to share a vision lightens up a common path to a prosperous future. The leaders of india and Pakistan have a greater role to play in invigorating SAARC with this faith.
Bilateral ties between india and Bangladesh have fallen into neglect. india has all the good reasons to pay it attention because she is the principal trading partner of Bangladesh with mounting trade deficit in favour of india. Besides Bangladesh can be a highly useful corridor for india for easy and expeditious access to its Northeastern states. There is also a prospect that can be pursued for exportable goods from the northeastern region to use Chittagong port. Bangladesh has natural gas and in case there is a surplus after meeting domestic consumption india can benefit from it. For landlocked Nepal and Bhutan Bangladesh can offer an attractive corridor for trading through Chittagong and Mongla port. The double entry and exit visa for indians travelling to and from the northeastern states is an inspiring example to build on.
indo-Bangla ties have an interesting characteristic of undergoing fluctuation with change of government. india is apparently more at ease with Awami League in power because of the personalised ties formed during the Liberation War. Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) on the other hand is generally believed to represent sentiments looking on india as a dominating neighbour. These factors of identifying government change with bilateral ties hinder the development of a permanent workable relationship between two states. When business ties between the two countries continue to grow in spite of government change, statelevel contacts can grow as well.
National politics and state level ties are two different spheres with different rules of engagement. This is quite evident when arch conservative President Nixon took the initiative of building ties with the communist regime of Mao Ze Dong. Sino-American economic ties is one of the most vigorous in the world with the Communist Party in power budging not an inch from the concept of one party state and one China policy. it is understandable that the siege mentality plays a part in the internal politics of Bangladesh. National politics in problem ridden and populous countries like those in the region is dominated by the theatrics and bravado of populism. But governance and statesmanship deal with substance that has to deliver. And business as usual in spite of government change promises to deliver the most. india is better equipped in this regard to understand it and in taking the lead in practicing it.
Sri Lanka looks like having an upper hand in its engagement with Tamil insurgency. india-Sri Lanka ties are benefiting from business as usual unencumbered by government change. Even the Tamil Tigers now seem to have submitted to the reality of receiving very little support for its insurgency from an unencumbered india-Sri Lanka relationship.
Judging by land area and size of the population SAARC is a region of disparate neighbours. it has a titan in india and a 'never say die' pugnacious combatant in Pakistan and a number of smaller neighbours from Bangladesh with a large population of 140 million to coral atolls of Maldives. india's ties with these small neighbours are dominated by a number of factors like past legacy, treaties and ethnic insurgency. The paramount importance involved with it has understandably placed india on a pedestal. However, regional cooperation even among unequals can bring rewards so long the spirit of equalityis workingin theinitiative.
The major part of the work is to be done by the larger partner in developing and in sharing the spirit. it is for the smaller neighbours to respond by coming out of siege mentality, passive stance or insular indifference. in the absence of the either of the two, cooperation will end in frustrating exercises of one-track stand going nowhere in the face of conditions, constricting clauses and apparent bliss ofinsularity.
SAARC is in a moribund state. it needs a trusting atmosphere marked by a spirit of equality and goodwill to invigorate it to a state where regional cooperation brings economic rewards for all the peoples of South Asia. only an unencumbered statesmanship that values shared vision can make it happen. There is hope because South Asia has potentialities of such statesmanship.
Syed Maqsud Jamil is a freelance writer.