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Political unrest in Uzbekistan

DR. MUHAMMAD RAFIQUL ISLAM RIAD
In Central Asia, President Islam Karimov has established the most powerful army with the help of the Russian Federation. Although, Mr. Karimov's excuse of possessing such a powerful army is for Uzbekistan's security, in true sense Karimov wants to survive with the unique support of the army. The Uzbek Army also knows that lack of a powerful opposition will help them ensure their parochial interests in the long run.
Security experts on Central Asia are in a quandary having to identifying a post-Karimov popular President in Uzbekistan. The Opposition in Uzbekistan are on the run now in this poverty-torn country where daily arrests of the opposition supporters, long existing socioeconomic problems, lack of social and political freedom and of freedom of expression, are common features.
After the 1991 disintegration of the USSR, Islam Karimov's regime quite deliberately proceeded to suppress people's demand, ignoring their basic needs. Although in the beginning of 1992 Karimov played secular politics, his organised suppression of opposition leaders (who are really not radicals or fundamentalist-they are peace-loving Sufi Muslims) gave rise to questions about his real aim of using the secularism card in Uzbekistan politics. On May13 2005, Karimov's army killed between 850 and 1,000 people in Andijan, according to human rights groups, although government sources put the number of deaths at 159 only. In 2004 Karimov's army had killed 50 people during an uprising. On May13 the killing of Andijan was so massive because Mr. Karimov was in great fear of losing his presidency because of the impact of the Tulip Revolution of Kyrgyzstan in March 13 this year. Mr. Karimov now threatens Kyrgyzstan as a large number of panic-stricken and politically suppressed Uzbeks have fled to Kyrgyzstan, which share a common border with Uzbekistan.
It is true that 9/11has brought Mr. Karimov close to the US. It is also true that the West and US helped Karimov to consolidate total political power in return for his consent to allow the US to open an air base in Uzbekistan for the US army to fight against terrorism.
NATO, EU and US are now pressing Mr. Karimov to allow an independent enquiry of the killing in Andijan which seems a tactic bluff to the people and an attempt to divert the increasing dissatisfaction in the moderate Muslim counties which are in internal crises after 9/11 for supporting George W. Bush's global war on terrorism, in another direction
Supporters of opposition leader Bakhtiar Rahimor and others who back traditional Sufism in Uzbekistan are less violent people, although Karimov's regime usually terms them as extremists. These people possess only sticks, stones and knives to protest against the heavily armed Karimov's army. On May19 Uzbek government troops seized the Uzbek town Korasuv where the people dream of establishing an Islamic state which will be really peaceful and secular instead of Karimov's oppressive Uzbekistan. After the killing of Andijan Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov's comment is really against the increasing popular sentiment of the Uzbeks as Mr. Lavrov cited the killing of Andijan as an internal matter of Uzbekistan. It is really unfortunate that President Vladimir Putin backs Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestine Authority to create a new state-Palestine, the same Mr. Putin backs the autocrat Karimov to suppress the peaceful Sufi Muslims of Uzbekistan.
In any sense, a radical Islamic state will not emerge in Uzbekistan where the popular demand is for the regime change. It is not true that minority Russian's (ten-percent) and Kazakhs (three percent) live very well in Uzbekistan as they suffer the dictatorial psyche of Islam Karimov. Mr. Karimov rarely pays heed to the Russians. In the past he was in the role of playing anti-Russian sentiment (1998,99). Russian still supports Karimov as Vladimir Putin does not want to embarrass this old and weary politician.
However, time is not far when the influence of September the 11 will not work. Definitely, new emerging upheavals in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan and even in Kazakhstan will create tremendous impact in Central Asia. Oil and gas reserves of these countries will not be able to stop them. Vladimir Putin's democracy is Russia's state of democracy. But Central Asian democracy will arise with real democracy.
Russia and the US can turn a blind eye after the killings in Andijan and capture of Korasuv, but the OSCE and EU are aware that Central Asia needs real democracy with its elements to survive in the 21st century.
Islam Karimov stands very far from this point of view with his failure strategy after 2000.
The author is a PhD in foreign policy studies.