The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has questioned the accuracy of the 6.27 percent record GDP growth in fiscal year 2003-04 reported by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) recently.

The question arises, as the gap is too wide to be credible between the bureau's provisional estimate of 5.52 percent and the final calculation of 6.27 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY04.

"Without transparency in estimation methodology, reliability and usefulness of GDP data will be constantly questioned," observed the country's leading independent policy think-tank in an economic review report presented at a pre-budget press briefing last Saturday.

Referring to the recently formed Committee on National Income Account Data, the CPD enquired whether the committee got any chance to scrutinise the new set of GDP estimates for FY04.

Citing the frequent discrepancies between provisional and final GDP figures, the report also questioned the credibility and usefulness of the provisional estimates for policymaking.

The budgetary measures and the whole planning process depend on the provisional data. So, if that data are far from reality, as it has always been the case, then how the budgetary measures can be realistic, the CPD asked.

Under such circumstances, it observed, the Mid-term Macro-economic Framework loses much credibility.

The CPD report said experience shows that typically the provisional GDP growth estimates based on nine-month data are but ambitious projections. So, when the full year's data become available, the final growth calculation has to be moderated or brought down, it pointed out.

For instance, in eight of the last 10 years, the final GDP estimates were lower than the provisional figures. The only two exceptions are FY2000 and FY2004, when the provisional estimates were surpassed by the final count.

In 2000, the provisional estimate of 5.47 percent GDP growth was raised in the end by .43 percentage point to 5.90 percent. But the difference in FY04's provisional and final estimate is nearly its double -- .75 percentage point.