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Iraq war costs Blair about 100 seats

Labour Party wins historic 3rd term

AP, London
Tony Blair weathered a backlash over the Iraq war to win a historic third term as Britain's prime minister, but his Labour Party suffered a sharply reduced parliamentary majority that could weaken his mandate and force him to step aside before his term ends.
A chastened Blair acknowledged the setback and appealed for unity.
"Iraq has been a divisive issue in this country but I hope now that we can unite again and look to the future there and here," he said Thursday as results trickled in. He spoke from his home constituency of Sedgefield, northern England, where he retained his seat. Labour needed at least 324 seats to form a majority in the 646-seat House of Commons. With 618 seats reporting, Labour had 353 seats; the main opposition Conservatives 194; Liberal Democrats 59; and independents and smaller parties 12. Labour's majority of 161 in the last Parliament had been slashed by almost 100 seats.
The slip in Labour's lead could loosen Blair's grip on power and prompt calls for him to step down before he has served a full five-year term. His Cabinet colleague and rival, powerful Treasury chief Gordon Brown, is widely regarded as his likely successor.
Never before has the Labour Party won three straight elections. Margaret Thatcher accomplished the same feat for the Conservatives, the only other prime minister in modern British history to do so.
"I think we can be really proud of what we've achieved," Blair, who turned 52 Friday, told supporters on his return from Sedgefield to London. "We've got a mandate to govern this country again."
The BBC projected Labour would win 66 more seats than all the other parties combined. Sky news put the Labour majority at 64 seats. Results in 610 constituencies showed a turnout of more than 61 percent of the electorate, up 2 percent from 2001's record low.
The margin of a Labour victory could have consequences for Britain's "special relationship" with the United States. The battering Blair took over Iraq during the campaign suggested that any future British leader will probably be wary of backing Washington militarily in the face of hostile domestic opinion.
"One of the conclusions of this is that he (Blair) certainly does not have a mandate to launch another war along with George Bush," said Robin Cook, who resigned from Blair's Cabinet in opposition to the war.
A politically weakened Blair, who has said he will not seek another term, also could find it difficult to persuade British voters to approve a proposed constitution for the European Union, which requires ratification by all member states.
Conservative lawmaker Boris Johnson said the result reflected the "slow, sad political extinction of Tony Blair."
While Blair was diminished in victory, Conservative leader Michael Howard gained stature as his party lost a third straight election but at least showed some signs of life. Howard said the national outcome marked a big step forward for the Conservatives, who lost landslides to Blair in the past two elections, in 1997 and 2001. During the campaign, Howard accused Blair of misrepresenting flimsy British intelligence on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and lying about the legal case for war. Though he himself backed the war, he urged voters to "wipe the smirk" off Blair's face.
Blair was once regarded as Labour's most prized assets. He banked on his trustworthiness and described himself as a "pretty straight guy" after winning power in 1997.
Labour's diminished majority is a stark indication of how far his popularity has crashed since the landslide victories of 1997 and 2001. Blair could now face difficulties controlling a disaffected rump of Labour lawmakers deeply disillusioned with his leadership, especially over Iraq, and the centrist flavour he has given the traditionally socialist party.
Blair's government only narrowly defeated revolts in the last parliament, including the crucial vote to go to war in Iraq, and legislation introducing tuition fees for university students, more private funding for state-run hospitals and tough antiterrorism laws.
"If his majority falls below 60 then you are in an area where an organised minority would have a strong bargaining power," said Geoff Andrews, political analyst at the Open University.
Labour's strong economic record appears to have outweighed the resentment over Iraq. The party is also credited with improving public services such as health and education through investment.
"I promise that we will listen and we will learn so that we can serve our country and our communities even better in the years to come," Brown said.
Commentators suggested power would begin to seep away from Blair to Brown, whose strong stewardship of the British economy has made him a more popular and trustworthy figure.
"On these results I would have thought, not Gordon Brown himself but the Brown supporters will be wondering how quickly they can move Tony Blair out of Downing Street," said former Conservative minister Michael Portillo.
"The key factor in the campaign was that this time Tony Blair was not an electoral asset. He was becoming a liability."