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Global recovery to gain steam despite slow Japan: OECD

REUTERS, Paris
The global economic recovery is set to gather momentum despite problems in Japan, which is suffering stagnation rather than recession, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Thursday.
In an interim report on six major economies, the Paris-based thinktank cut its 2004 growth estimates for Japan, Germany, Britain and Italy.
But the OECD kept its estimates of 4.4 percent growth in the United States and 1.8 percent growth in the euro zone, and saw rays of hope in Germany, Europe's biggest economy.
"The global recovery has been marking time as the adverse effects of higher and more volatile oil prices worked their way through," OECD chief economist Jean-Philippe Cotis said.
"Going forward, however, the conditions are in place for the global
recovery to pick up momentum, including as concerns enterprise balance sheets and profits, which have strengthened markedly," he told a new conference.
Cotis said the United States would continue to lead the global upturn with growth of about 3.5 percent in the first half of 2005.
Quarter-on-quarter US growth should reach 1.0 percent in the first quarter of 2005 and 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the OECD said.
OECD projections showed Japan should have 0.5 percent growth in both the first and second quarters of 2005, after -0.3 and 0.1 percent respectively for the last two quarters of 2004.
Euro area growth should rise to 0.4 and 0.5 percent respectively for the first two quarters of 2005 after 0.3 and 0.2 percent in the last two quarters of 2004.
Oil prices spiked to a record $55.67 a barrel last October before falling back, though crude prices are again rising on persistent OPEC talk
of a cut in supplies.
Cotis welcomed the US Federal Reserve's "gradual tightening" of monetary policy and "accommodative" policies in the euro zone and Japan.
But he said there was not yet enough evidence to suggest a big improvement in the US structural deficit. There remained a danger of a strong rise in the euro against the dollar if Asian currencies did not play a balancing role.
Eurozone growth almost to a halt in the fourth quarter with gross domestic product rising 0.2 percent, while Japan's economy fell 0.1 percent in the three months to December, its third straight quarterly contraction.
But Cotis was at pains to temper gloom about Japan and Germany, the world's biggest economies after the United States.