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Weekly Currency Roundup
December 11-15,2004 Local FX Market
US dollar strengthened against Bangladeshi taka throughout the week. The dollar's strength against BDT was mainly influenced by heavy import demand and lackofsupply in the local market Money Market
Bangladesh Bank borrowed BDT 4,398.00 million through the TYeasury bill auction held on Sunday, compared with BDT 7,391.00 million in the previous week’s bid. Weighted average yields of t-bills of different tenors were almost unchanged from the previous bid.
Call money rate increased in the later part of the week after staying almost flat in the beginning. Call money rate ranged between 5.00-6.00 percent in the beginning of the week. The rate then rose to close the week atB.OO-lO.OOpercent.
International FX Market
In the beginning of the week, dollar lost its steam against euro and yen amid wariness over US trade and current account deficit data due later in the week. Expectation of deterioration in US external position was fore-cast to offset any support from widely expected rate rise by US Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve was widely expected to increase its fund rate to 2.25 percent in theirFOMC meeting scheduled in the middle of the week.
Dollar held steady against major currencies as market awaited Federal Reserve’s rate decision due later In the day. Fed was expected to increase its funds rate for a fifth time this year to 2.25 percent - which would take the U.S. rates above euro zone rates. The expectation of higher interest rate was perceived to be the only supporting factor for the dollar. Focus was mostly on US trade data for October and industrial production data for November given the recent worries regarding the sustainability of US current account deficit.
Later in the week, dollar lost ground against euro after US Federal Reserve seemed less hawkish on interest rates than the market had expected. As widely expected. Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent. Dollar lost almost 9 percent against euro since qarly October as market players focused on US current account deficient! funds inflow to USA to cover the gap. News that US trade deficit widened, in October to USD 55.5 billion from USD 50.9 billion in the previous month did not have much impact on traders. Meanwhile, Japan had a mixed bagof economic data. Bankofjapan's quarterly "tankan" surveyof big manufacturers' sentiment was lower than expected. However, market focused on upward revisions to firms' capital spending plans. Market is now focusing on US capital inflows data for October and current account data for third quarter for more clues on capital flows to USA. Economists are forecasting US current account deficit at USD 170 billion, from USD 166.18 billion in thesecond quarter of2004.
-Standard Chartered Bank