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Maharastra : A boost for UPA and Sonia Gandhi
THE outcome of the state assembly elections in the key western Indian state of Maharastra has come as a big morale boosting for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in India and more importantly its leader Sonia Gandhi, who is the chairperson of both the UPA and its main constituent Congress. A combination of the Congress and its regional ally Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) retained power in the Maharastra state beating off a determined opposition combine of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its rabidly Hindu nationalist party Shiv Sena in a close contest.The elections were crucial in many sense and the results will have tremendous impact on national politics in different ways.
The Maharastra polls are always a matter of great interest and significance not only for India but also outside for the simple reason that the state is second most populous in India only after the vast Uttar Pradesh and its capital Mumbai is well known being both commercial capital of the country as well as the
hub of India's huge film industry. But this time the elections assumed far greater interest because it was seen as the first test of popularity for the federal uPA government, which rather unexpectedly won national elections in April/May, this year defeating the BJP-led rainbow coalition of many political parties including the Shiv Sena. The Maharastra polls were a kind of acid test for the five months old uPA government on one hand and how people now view the BJP and its
allies, on the other. The outcome is not an outright win for the Congress-NCP alliance since it narrowly missed having an absolute majority in the 288-member legislature but certainly it has done exceedingly well when judged against scepticism in certain quarters.
For the BJP, which lost power at the centre, it was also a electoral fight of dignity since a victory
in Maharastra would have given its flagging confidence a much-needed stimulation as the party is still reeling under the shock of defeat in the national polls. The Congress-NCP combine secured 141 -- only four short of an absolute majority while the BJP-Shiv Sena
had to be satisfied with 120 seats. It is very easy for the Congress to garner the support of only a few
more members from other fold since as many as 31 including a host of independents have found place in the legislature. In the last national elections, the Congress-led alliance fared well in the 48-seat stake for the Lokshaba (lower house of parliament).They have maintained the winning
spree and the victory has come close on the heels of comfortable
Congress win in northeastern Arunachal Pradesh.The results of Maharastra polls have sent shock waves in the BJP circles and jubilation in the Congress and uPA camps.
The Congress and its allies will be benefited by this outcome since the uPA government at the centre does not have a majority in parliament and this minority government's survival is crucially contingent upon the outside support of the leftists, who have a record 60 members this time in the 545-member Lokshaba. The leftists are supporting the uPA as both believe in secularism and are keen to prevent the BJP, widely seen as communal, from coming to
power. However, the leftists do not see eye to eye with the uPA in all matters and their ties often come under strain. The communists are also mindful that they do not lose public support by always endorsing the uPA and its policies and they give vent to their feelings of differences on certain issues particularly in the economic matters. A loss for the Congress and the NCP, which is also a key partner of the Congress in the uPA, would have brought colossal burden for the uPA both in main-
taining cohesion among the alliance partners and guarantee of continued support from the
leftists. Maharastra polls results have come as a shot in the arms of the uPA government on both the counts.
The outcome is also a measure of popularity for Sonia Gandhi, the supreme leader of the Congress, who declined prime ministership following victory in national polls and instead favoured Dr. Manmohan Singh for the job. Both campaigned hard in the polls knowing well that their stakes were high in the Maharastra voting. The BJP and its allies always come down heavily on Sonia Gandhi for her "foreign
origin" and the Mahaastra polls, like the national elections, have once again shown that Indian electorate are not bothered by this campaign against the Italian-born widow of slain former premier Rajiv Gandhi. This enhances her credentials as the tallest leader of India now while the results are an embarrassment for former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, considered as the most charismatic and popular among the present Indian politicians. It appears that Sonia's leadership is progress-
ing by leaps and bounds. Even Shusma Swaraj, staunch critic of Sonia on the "foreigner issue" admitted that Maharastra success for the uPA was mainly for Sonia Gandhi. She did not involve son Rahul and daughter Priyanka in Maharastra campaign.
The polls were also critically important for two aging Maharastra political leaders -- Sharad Pawar of the NCP, who is now the federal agriculture minister, and Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackarey since both are heavyweights in the state politics -- one determined to retain power and other wrest it. For the Shiv Sena chief, who is now 78, waiting for another five years under
normal situation for an opportunity to regain power in the state is not anything that he will relish. Pawar has increased his political influence and may this time ask for the chief ministership of the state for himself or his party leader rather than a Congress person since this time NCP has won two seats more than its alliance partner Congress. The issue may cause some rupture in the Congress-NCP amity but top leaders are expected to hammer it out since none of the two parties would like to waste the opportunity to rule for another term having won the polls together. The Congress-NCP government has completed full five year term in the office.
The results of Maharastra, bastion of the Shiv Sena, have come as a big setback for the Hindu communal forces, who had pinned victory here -- albeit stiff competition. But that has not happened. This will further intensify the introspection and differences within the "Sangh Parivar" -- an euphemism for the communal forces. BJP president V.Naidu has reportedly resigned the party position owing responsibility of Maharastra debacle. On the other hand, the outcome will bolster the secular forces and strengthen their position in national politics even though the results have not been very decisive. Complacency must not grip the uPA since the BJP and allies will spare no efforts to recover the lost influence and clout in both national and state level as more states polls are in the offing.
Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.