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GLOBAL ARMs TRADE

Growing threat to world peace

AIR CDRE ISHFAQ ILAHI CHOUDHURY, ndc, psc, (Retd)
ALTHOUGH international arms trade constitute less than 1% of the global trade, its significance lies in its end use and the role it plays in global politics. One of the "Peace dividends" due to the end of the Cold War was the steady decline of the global military expenditures and its impact on the international arms trade. international arms trade was at its peak in 1997 valued at $48.87 billion. since then it continued to fall and by 2002 the value of the arms trade was almost halved to $25.44 billion. Besides the end of the Cold War, other factors responsible for reducing the arms trade were: reduced military purchases by the oil rich Middle Eastern countries after the defeat of iraq in 1991 Gulf War, economic crisis in East Asia in 1997-98, and the global economic slowdown since the 9/11. since 2002, however, world military expenditure is on the rise and so is the armament trade and industry. Nearly $30 billion of arms trade in 2003 was double that of the total UN budget, including all its agencies.
Major Arms Exporters
Few exporters of the industrialised north today dominate the arms trade. Throughout the Cold War period, UsA and the soviet Union were the two largest arms exporters in the world. However, with the break up of the soviet Union and the economic turmoil that followed, UsA and the western countries became dominant players in the export market. Over the last ten years, the UsA, world's largest arms exporter, exported weapons worth $154 billion. in 2003, UsA retained the lead in global arms deliveries for ninth year in a row, but Russia is fast catching up as she recovers from the post-break-up economic decline. UsA accounts for 56% of the global arms export, followed by Germany, Russia, UK, France, China and some smaller players.
Major Arms Importers
There are important players on the importers side too. saudi Arabia continued to be the world's largest importer of Arms. it was at its height in 1997 with $11 billion worth of import, mostly from the UsA and UK. Her import came down to $7.3 billion in 2000 and $4.8 billion in 2001 and rose to $5.2 billion in 2002. The fall was mainly due to the disappearance of threat from iraq after 1991 Gulf War. However, the import is likely to rise in future as internal instability increases and the threat
from iran intensifies. Other major arms importers are: oil-rich Gulf states, israel, south Korea Egypt, China, Taiwan, india and Pakistan. Most countries of Asia and Africa rely on arms import because they lack indigenous armament industry. Although value of import by developing countries is small, it often represents significant share of the national wealth. There is a net transfer of capital from the poorer south to the richer North in the form of arms import bill. This is a sad testimony to the global failure to eradicate poverty and backwardness.
Major Weapon Manufacturers
The end of the Cold War saw large reduction of forces in Europe and America that resulted in sharp decline of the armament industry. Many small companies either closed down or merged with the larger ones. A handful of companies from the UsA and Europe now dominate world armament industries. The Economist on 20 Jul 2002 in its "survey of Defence industries" reported that of the top 10 defence companies in the world, six are American. The top 3 American defence companies together sold goods worth $48 billion in 2002. Few giant western companies dominate the arms trade. These militaryindustrial complexes play important role in domestic and global politics. They influence domestic and international arms procurement policies.
Transfer of Conventional Arms
While the armament industry had declined globally, it does not necessarily portray a global trend towards disarmament. The facts are on the contrary. Where as, during the Cold War most money used to be spent on strategic and nuclear weapons and their delivery systems such as long range bombers, rockets, aircraft carriers and submarines, now the shift is towards more versatile, light, tactical weapons, small arms and explosives. New ranges of surveillance and detection equipment and anti-terrorist weapons have appeared response to the market demand. The arms traders' eyes are on the potential market in the volatile parts of Africa, south Asia and ME. For example, in four years between 1996-2000, arms worth $3.1 billion was exported to various African countries at a time when the continent was losing battle on AiDs, tuberculosis, poverty and hunger. Russia and China were the two largest exporters of weapons mostly small arms and ammunitions, to this troubled continent. The small arms sold to unstable, volatile governments
often find their ways into the hands of criminals and terrorist groups or fuel interstate or ethnic conflicts. The violence and senseless killing that we witness in many parts of the world are the result of indiscriminate sale of small arms and explosives. Half a million people were murdered in Rwanda a fortnight mostly using machetes and AK-47s.
Actual transfer of arms to the troubled regions of the world could be much more than the published data. Arms exporters had been selling arms to volatile regions without regards to the end use. There are also clandestine transfers of small arms by arms dealers and sometimes by state actors to fuel proxy wars or ethnic conflicts. This has already become a global problem, much more serious than the transfer of conventional heavy weapons. small arms, explosives, and landmines cause many more deaths to the innocent civilians than high-tech bombers, tanks or submarines.
Corruption in Arms Trade
Hand in hand with the arms trade enter 'corruption'. This was what The Economist wrote in its "survey of the Defence industries" on 20 July 2002: "The problem with arms exports is that they often go to unreliable governments in unstable parts of the world, with the deals smoothed by bribes. ... The American Department of commerce reckons that half of all bribes paid in international business relate to arms deals, even though arms make up less than 1% of all trade." The paper goes on to write: "The details of the arms deal are usually kept secret, on the grounds of export benefits and security concerns. .The deals are mostly large and involve high value goods, making it easier to hide commission payments that finance bribes. And not everybody agrees that bribes are necessarily bad thing: for example, in Britain they were not only legal but tax deductible until last December."
Need for Control on Arms Trade
The global arms trade remains dangerously unregulated. A report released in October 2003 by Global Arms Control Campaign, launched jointly by Amnesty international, Oxfam and international Action Network on small Arms (iANsA), stated that unregulated arms transfer allows weapons to reach repressive governments, human rights abusers and criminals. The campaign aims to reduce arms proliferation and misuse and to convince governments to introduce a binding arms trade treaty. The campaign
focuses on promoting an international treaty covering arms transfers the Arms Trade Treaty as well as a number of regional and locally appropriate measures designed to limit arms proliferation and misuse.
The 9/11 attacks should have alerted everyone on the need to keep the weapons beyond the reach of the terrorists and criminals, instead it fueled further proliferation of weapons of all sorts. One of the outcomes of the "war on terror" was increased arms export to Us allies such as saudi Arabia, Pakistan, indonesia and the Philippines, regardless of human rights concerns in those countries. Alongside the call for an Arms Trade Treaty, the Control Arms Campaign is also calling for Governments to develop and strengthen regional arms-control, rigorously control national arms exports and make the brokers and dealers nationally accountable. Amnesty international and Oxfam working with few other NGOs, international legal experts and a group of Nobel Laureates have drafted an Arms Trade Treaty. The Treaty aims to provide a set of common minimum standards for the control of arms transfers, based on international law.
Conclusion
Global arms trade, valued at $30 billion in 2003 is steadily rising. Although it is less than 1% of the World trade, it is the nature of the trade and the end use that are matters of concern for all of us. Arms trade, especially trade in small arms and explosives, need to be internationally monitored. Proliferation of conventional arms and explosives are no less a danger to world peace and stability than that of the nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, the so-called Weapons of Mass Destructions (WMD). Leading NGOs around the world are calling for stricter regulation and end user monitoring of all arms transfer. There will always be unscrupulous arms suppliers ready to meet the market demand without caring for the end use. in the turbulent world, unbridled arms trade will only jeopardise the world peace. We have to seek a world order where peace prevails and demand for weapons is reduced, a world where weapons are used to fight the forces of evil rather than arm the evil forces to terrorise the rest of us.
Note: The statistical data are from SIPRI
Year Book 2002, Published by Oxford University Press for stockholm international Peace Research institute, sweden 2003 and Military Balance 2002-2003, Published by Oxford University Press for The international institute for strategic studies, London, 2003 and the internet.
The author is a writer on security issues.